关键词:
crisis
crisis governance
polycrisis
多重危机
危机
危机治理
危机政策
Policrisis
Crisis
Gobernanza de crisis Política de crisis
摘要:
Since its emergence, the concept of polycrisis held promise as providing a more realistic and nuanced understanding of policymaking in an evolving world. However, despite the concept's rise to fame, the state of polycrisis research in public policy and administration literatures has been rather disappointing, suffering several fundamental issues related to theoretical, analytical, and empirical treatment. Being appealing and ‘catchy’, the concept is excessively stretched, while being often casually and unfittingly employed in empirical research. Additionally, despite being fundamentally complex and dynamic phenomena with multiple constituent components, polycrises are often treated as static and monolithic objects. Resultantly, the concept often ends up being employed as a semantic or narrative device to re-package pre-existing analytical perspectives, where research often falls short of offering in-depth theoretical understandings of policymaking processes and outcomes. To help advance the debate, this article proposes three key considerations for future research pivoting on the core characteristics of polycrises: Building on clear and robust conceptual foundations, theoretically and analytically unpacking polycrises, and reconsidering research designs. To enable these considerations, it draws on existing polycrisis and crisis literatures to propose an analytical framework that disentangles polycrises into four subtypes: tightly coupled polycrises, loosely coupled polycrises, cascading effect polycrises, and time-congruent polycrises. 自“多重危机”这一概念出现以来, 就有望为不断变化的世界中的政策制定提供更现实、更细微的理解。然而, 尽管此概念声名鹊起, 公共政策和行政文献中关于多重危机的研究现状却令人失望, 在理论、分析和实证处理方面存在一些根本性问题。由于此概念引人入胜且“朗朗上口”, 其含义被过度延伸, 在实证研究中也常常被随意且不恰当地运用。此外, 尽管多重危机本质上是复杂且动态的现象, 包含多个构成要素, 但其往往被视为静态且单一的对象。结果, 此概念最终常常被用作一种语义或叙事手段, 用来重新包装现有的分析视角, 而这些研究往往无法提供对政策制定过程和结果的深度理论理解。为了推进相关辩论, 本文围绕多重危机的核心特征, 提出了未来研究的三个关键考量因素:建立清晰稳健的概念基础、从理论和分析角度解读多重危机, 以及重新审视研究设计。为了使这些考量因素成为可能, 本文借鉴了现有的多重危机文献和危机文献, 提出了一个分析框架, 将多重危机划分为四种子类型:紧密耦合型多重危机、松散耦合型多