关键词:
Computer science
Geographic information systems
Artificial intelligence
摘要:
Trajectories are spatio-temporal data that represent traces of moving objects, such as humans, migrating animals, vehicles, and tropical cyclones. In addition to the geo-location information, a trajectory data often contain other (non-spatial) features describing the states of the moving objects. The time-varying geo-location and state information would collectively characterize a trajectory dataset, which can be harnessed to understand the dynamics of the moving objects. This thesis focuses on the development of efficient and accurate machine learning algorithms for forecasting the future trajectory path and state of a moving object. Although many methods have been developed in recent years, there are still numerous challenges that have not been sufficiently addressed by existing methods, which hamper their effectiveness when applied to critical applications such as hurricane prediction. These challenges include their difficulties in terms of handling concept drifts, error propagation in long-term forecasts, missing values, and nonlinearities in the data. In this thesis, I present a family of online learning algorithms to address these challenges. Online learning is an effective approach as it can efficiently fit new observations while adapting to concept drifts present in the data. First, I proposed an online learning framework called OMuLeT for long-term forecasting of the trajectory paths of moving objects. OMuLeT employs an online learning with restart strategy to incrementally update the weights of its predictive model as new observation data become available. It can also handle missing values in the data using a novel weight renormalization strategy. Second, I introduced the OOR framework to predict the future state of the moving object. Since the state can be represented by ordinal values, OOR employs a novel ordinal loss function to train its model. In addition, the framework was extended to OOQR to accommodate a quantile loss function to improve its predic