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关键词： 宏观经济学   《宏观经济学原理》   方法论基础  

摘要： 中国历史上虽然有着丰富的财政思想,但缺乏系统的财政学。中国现代财政体系主要借鉴了西方财政学和前苏联的财政学科体系。中华人民共和国成立以前,中国的财政研究以欧美为基础,曾出现了短暂的繁荣,但最终还是遭到了战争的破坏。从新中国成立到改革开放,中国财政教育和研究主要集中参考前苏联的财政学科体系。在20世纪80年代中,中国财政学者见证了如何建

关键词： Economics   Economic theory  

摘要： Does inequality react to stabilization policies and macroeconomic shocks at business cycle frequencies? Does an unanticipated innovation in inequality impact aggregate demand and drive cyclical fluctuations? Does the level of inequality influence the propagation of stabilization policies? To answer these questions, I first investigate which factors of earnings distributions are represented by a measure of inequality in Chapter 1. Chapter 2 develops an econometric tool to evaluate the contribution of macroeconomic shocks to the dynamics of an endogenous variable of interest. Finally, Chapter 3 deals with the questions above. In Chapter 1, I derive principal components of log earnings distributions in the U.S. and propose a simple three-factor model to rationalize my empirical results. Using data on earnings distribution in the U.S. from 1978 to 2013, I find that more than 90 percent of the total variation in the distribution can be summarized by two underlying factors, which are related to the location and dispersion of the distribution, where the dispersion factor is tightly associated with the log P90/P10 index. Moreover, most of the remaining portion is due to another factor characterizing asymmetric components. To rationalize these findings, I suggest asymmetric Laplace distributions as a model of log earnings distributions. In this model, the right-tail of earnings always follows a Pareto distribution, unlike log normal distributions. Furthermore, it is a tractable distributional family featuring three parameters representing the location, dispersion, and degree of asymmetry, respectively. I describe the dynamics of those parameters in the U.S. both in trends and concerning business cycles. Finally, I illustrate how a conventional Gaussian AR(1) model for individual log earnings can be easily modified to admit asymmetric Laplace distributions. Chapter 2 is based on joint work with Yuriy Gorodnichenko, which is forthcoming in Journal of Business and Statistics un

关键词： Economics   Finance   Public policy  

摘要： Economic models commonly feature utility-maximizing agents. How the agents form their perceptions and expectations and the structure of the agent’s incentives are key factors in these models. In order to produce a useful and realistic model, it is crucial that agent expectations and incentives are properly specified. This dissertation empirically and theoretically investigates belief formation (Chapters 1 and 2) and incentives (Chapter 3) for different agents in the economy and discusses the implications for monetary policy. In Chapter 1, "The Inattentive Consumer: Sentiment and Expectations”, I use survey data to show that consumer beliefs about economic variables are driven by a single component: sentiment. When consumers are “optimistic” (have positive sentiment), they expect the economy to expand but inflation to decline. This correlation stands in contrast to recent U.S. experience. I explain these stylized facts with a model of a rationally inattentive consumer who faces uncertainty about fundamentals. To economize on information costs, the consumer chooses to reduce the dimensionality of the problem and obtain a signal that is a linear combination of fundamentals. Optimal information gathering results in covariances of beliefs that differ from the underlying data-generating process, and in particular leads to countercyclical price beliefs. Thus, monetary policies that aim to stimulate the economy by raising inflation expectations can have counterproductive consequences. In Chapter 2, “The Formation of Expectations, Inflation, and the Philiips Curve”, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Olivier Coibion and I argue for a careful re-consideration of the expectations formation process and a more systematic inclusion of real-time expectations through survey data in macroeconomic analyses. While the rational expectations revolution has allowed for great leaps in macroeconomic modeling, the surveyed empirical micro-evidence appears increasingly at odds with the full-information ra

关键词： Economics   Economic theory   Public administration   Public policy  

摘要： In this dissertation I study recessionary environments in general, placing a special emphasis on the steps that can be taken by policy makers to alleviate the negative consequences of recessions. After the Great Recession, most advanced economies had a prolonged period of low growth and high unemployment that is slowly subsiding. Several economists have proposed the possibility that the economy has entered a regime of "secular stagnation" where demand factors and the Zero Lower Bound lead to persistently low growth. Given the current worldwide decline in interest rates, secular stagnation is a looming risk that should be taken seriously, as it would have a significant impact on welfare. All chapters of this dissertation relate to these issues. The first chapter provides a general motivation of the topic and discusses the relationships between the remaining chapters. In the second chapter, "Going Negative at the Zero Lower Bound", I investigate whether negative rates can provide an antidote against the ZLB, granting monetary authorities more room to perform expansionary policy and combat demand-induced low growth. In the third chapter, "The Cyclical Sensitivity in Estimates of Potential Output", I study whether potential output really decreases permanently after prolonged recessions, or if, in contrast, this is a byproduct of a faulty computation of potential output. I also study whether some structural VAR methodologies can avoid these shortcomings. In the fourth chapter, "Neo-Keynesian Trade", I build a dynamic model that unifies a detailed trade pattern across regions and sectors with monetary non-neutrality. The nominal friction, a downwardly rigid wage, can lead to unemployment in the face of a negative shock if the monetary authority is unwilling or unable to inflate the economy, and this effect can vary substantially across regions depending on their industrial composition. Overall, the evidence in this dissertation indicates that policy makers should do more

关键词： 宏观经济学   中国城市化   社会科学   王绍光   朝鲜半岛   资本主义  

摘要： ~~

ISBN: (纸本)9787111625841

关键词： Finance   Economic theory  

摘要： This dissertation consists of two chapters that address questions in finance and macroeconomics with quantitative theories. In the first chapter, I study how financial covenants influence firm behavior by state-contingently allocating decision rights to creditors. I develop a model with long-term debt where shareholders cannot commit to not dilute creditors in the future with new debt issuances and risky investments. Creditors intervene upon violations of covenant restrictions and restructure the debt without ex ante commitment. My quantitative analysis suggests that financial covenants significantly increase debt capacity, investment and ex ante firm value by disciplining shareholders. Nonetheless, I show that lenders' inability to commit to a restructuring plan severely impairs contractual efficiency. A further tightening of covenants, relative to the calibrated benchmark, improves their value. In the second chapter, I investigate the impact of bank capital requirements in a business cycle model with corporate debt choice. Compared to non-bank investors, banks provide restructurable loans that reduce firm bankruptcy losses and enhance production efficiency. Raising capital requirements reduces deposit insurance distortions but also deposit tax shields. As a result, firms cut back on both bank and non-bank borrowing while going bankrupt more frequently. Implementing an optimal capital ratio of 11 percent in the US produces limited marginal impacts on aggregate quantities and welfare.

关键词： Economics   Finance  

摘要： This dissertation explores macroeconomic aspects of residential and commercial real estate markets. The dissertation consists of three essays on topics in real estate investing, referring to investment in commercial property and in residential property other than owner-occupied housing. There are two main dimensions of the dissertation: one that looks at households’ holdings of investment real estate and another that looks at the information content of large data sets of macroeconomic and financial variables for forecasting real estate investment trust (REITs) returns. A third chapter of the dissertation also provides an overview of prior research, noting gaps that remain from both the consumer portfolio choice perspective and macroeconomic forecasting view.

关键词： 理论三分法   参照型理论   解释型理论   政策型理论  

摘要： 经济学经常受到"理论假设不现实"的批评,罗默轰动一时的《宏观经济学困境》一文可以说是这类批评的一个典型。但本文认为,从经济学"理论三分法"的角度看,罗默的批评同其他类似批评一样,混淆了不同理论类型的性质,错误地用解释型理论的标准去要求参照型理论,这不仅导致了他把自己引向常识主义和道德主义之路,而且也使得他的批评会反过来指向自己获得诺奖的理论上。本文分析了理论类型的混淆如何导致三种错误在经济学界的泛滥,并以罗默自己存在严重局限的"内生增长理论"和另外四个典型理论案例(包括弗里德曼因未能区分参照型与解释型理论而给经济学界造成长久混乱的"预测至上论")进行进一步的说明。本文希望通过澄清"理论假设不现实"的批评所包含的观念模糊来纠正各种流行的误解,并提醒真正要警惕的是那种夸大经济学参照型理论的解释、预测和政策功用的错误以及偏重理论模型而忽视理论基础(包括逻辑基础和分类基础)的学术倾向。