教学课程资源库 更多>>

关键词： Economics   Macroeconomics   Economic policy   Social service   Public welfare   Liquidity (Economics)  

摘要： This paper focuses on policies and regulations on open economies to achieve financial stability and social welfare. In the first chapter, I develop a dynamic model to study optimal liquidity regulations for multiple assets with differing levels of liquidity. I show that optimal macroprudential policies are affected by both asset liquidity and the multi-asset structure. Lower asset liquidity amplifies drops in asset prices and tightens the collateral constraint during financial crises, thus raising macroprudential taxes to discourage holding. With multiple assets, the marginal benefit of investing in one asset is affected by the future cross-price elasticities of all assets. Quantitatively, optimal macroprudential policies increases welfare by introducing a portfolio with more liquid assets and less borrowing. However, the Basel III reform deteriorates welfare, as agents overaccumulate liquid assets. In the next chapter, I focuses on the welfare analysis of currency depreciation through endogenous R&D where the economy faces a trade-off between the gain from export and disinvestment of technology. I show that real depreciation decreases welfare when productivity is endogenous, as the long-term bust due to sluggish productivity dominates the short-term boom in consumption and output. In the final chapter, I study the optimal monetary policy in this framework. The optimal policy is a targeting rule of inflation, output gap, and the terms of trade, considering the trade-off between the international purchasing power and the cost of importing R&D. The variation of the optimal monetary policy is larger than the standard Taylor rule and the optimal monetary policy under exogenous productivity.

关键词： Economics  

摘要： New developments in computational power and methods have introduced a wide variety of new tools for economic analysis. This dissertation explores whether these new advances can help us understand and analyze macroeconomic phenomena. Chapter 1 shows how recently developed clustering methods can be helpful in identifying consumer groups based on a history of purchasing behavior. While traditional methods of customer segmentation rely on observable characteristics of consumers or the products they buy, the methods I use in this chapter rely instead on identifying groups of consumers who buy a similar set of products. If consumers who buy similar products are likely to have similar preferences, then clustering groups of consumers who buy similar products can potentially uncover groups of consumers who share unobservable characteristics that drive their preference structures without explicitly specifying those preference structures. Using simulations of a discrete choice logit demand system, I show that a density peaks clustering method can effectively uncover consumers with different preferences, using a series of examples to show how different assumptions impact the effectiveness of the clustering algorithm. In chapter 2, I apply the methods of chapter 1 to attempt to improve measurements of the cost of living. In particular, I show that methods for measuring cost of living that rely on aggregate CES representative agents will often overstate the gains from new product varieties when groups of consumers have different tastes for products. Since the purchase data of consumers shows that there is substantial heterogeneity in the sets of products consumers buy, estimating inflation using a representative agent approach could produce biased estimates. However, the methods from chapter 1 can help to mitigate the bias from heterogeneity by grouping similar consumers based on their purchase history. I apply the method to a large panel of consumers and show that clustering con

ISBN: (纸本)9787300275154

关键词： Economics   Labor economics  

摘要： This dissertation consists of three chapters. The first chapter (joint with Bledi Taska) examines the role of technological change in explaining the large and persistent decline in earnings following job loss. Using detailed skill requirements from the near universe of vacancies posted online, we estimate technological change at the occupation level and find that approximately 50% of the decline in earnings after job loss is due to technological change. We integrate technological change, occupation choice, and employment risk into a Bewley-style economy to rationalize our empirical results and examine the optimal combination of public insurance transfers and retraining subsidies for unemployed workers. We find there are welfare gains from increasing the generosity of public insurance transfers and retraining subsidies relative to the current U.S. policy, both in the steady state as well as along the transition path. The second chapter (joint with Kyle Herkenhoff and Gordon Phillips) examines the credit access and usage among unemployed individuals. We show that unemployed individuals maintain significant access to credit. Following job loss, the unconstrained borrow, while the constrained default and delever. We quantitatively show that long-term credit relationships and credit-registries allow the unemployed to partially offset income losses using credit. We estimate the model and find that the optimal provision of public insurance is unambiguously lower with greater credit access. The third chapter investigates the impact of declining labor force growth on the allocation of workers across firms and aggregate output. Theoretically, I demonstrate as labor force growth declines the probability a worker meets a firm declines, which decreases hiring. Quantitatively, the observed decline in labor force growth leads to a modest decline in hiring for employed and unemployed workers. Despite lower reallocation of workers across firms, output per worker increases since the

关键词： Economics  

摘要： I study two questions in macroeconomics. In each case, I focus on the importance of micro level interactions and strategic behavior for macroeconomic outcomes. In the first chapter, I propose a new theory to explain the recent rise in industry-level concentration and markups. I study a dynamic model of oligopolistic competition in which firms make a one-time, irreversible investment in intangible capital at entry. This effectively allows firms to commit to a higher level of production, which deters competitors and potential entrants. I take as given a change in technology that increases the importance of intangible capital in production. Large productive firms with high markups disproportionately increase investment and gain market share. In the calibrated model, a shift toward intangible capital in line with estimates of the recent rise in intangibles can explain more than half the increases in concentration and markups from 1997 to 2012. The model also quantitatively matches the observed increase in labor productivity and fall in the labor share in concentrating industries. Finally, I show that in the model, these changes result in an increase in welfare equivalent to a 0.72% permanent increase in consumption. High markups are inefficient in the model because they imply that large firms are underproducing. Intangible capital allows large firms to commit to a higher level of production, undoing part of this inefficiency. In the second chapter, with my co-author, I introduce a new mechanism to address self-fulfilling runs on a Diamond-Dybvig intermediary. If a depositor wants to end her relationship with the intermediary early, then she can withdraw goods or take ownership of unliquidated assets from the intermediary's balance sheet. We interpret this mechanism as a repo contract or a bankruptcy plan. When the intermediary can cheaply transfer ownership of its assets to depositors, this mechanism can eliminate runs while achieving the first-best outcome. This result

关键词： 大数据   宏观经济学   多元化   实践  

摘要： 大数据时代给宏观经济学的教学带来了海量数据和新颖案例资源,应用型本科院校的课程教学模式面临革新。基于此,本文对当前宏观经济学教学中存在的问题进行分析,在大数据背景下,应用型本科院校《宏观经济学》的多元化教学模式进行研究。

关键词： 罗伯特·戈登   宏观经济学   通货膨胀   经济增长   生产率   Robert J.Gordon   Macroeconomics   Inflation   Economic Growth   Productivity  

摘要： 罗伯特·戈登是美国著名的宏观经济学家，主要致力于通货膨胀与失业、经济周期、长期经济增长和生产率等领域的研究，2014年美国经济联合会授予其“杰出会士”荣誉称号。戈登对宏观经济数据的准确测度展开了大量细致的研究，其编制的与产品质量相挂钩的价格指数以及估算的时变非加速通货膨胀失业率，都是相关领域的标准范式。他对第二次世界大战前后美国经济周期进行测量，从根本上改变了学者们对战前与战后经济周期的差别认识。在近期关于信息技术对美国生产率增长和长期经济增长影响的讨论中，戈登持悲观态度，他认为除信息技术以外，还存在不平等加剧等多重阻力会影响美国经济的长期增长。

关键词： 项目教学法   宏观经济学   教学模式  

摘要： 宏观经济学是一门经管类专业的核心基础课程,目前其教学过程中存在着教学方式单一、教学内容单调陈旧、实践教学环节薄弱等问题,教学效果不尽如人意。对此,教师可以依据宏观经济学的学科特点,引入项目教学法,按照设计教学项目、课前准备与共享资源、分组实践、课堂汇报与评价的顺序来规划和实施具体的教学项目,通过理论与实践的充分结合,达到提升学生的学习兴趣和应用能力、改善宏观经济学整体教学质量的效果。

摘要： This thesis studies the effect of domestic bank run risks on government borrow- ing and reserve policies in models that feature systemic bank runs and sovereign default. In chapter 1, I develop a qualitative analysis of financial instability and government interventions to study the effectiveness of government’s bailout policies in stabilizing the banking system and improving economic outcomes during periods of limited fiscal capacity. The central result from this analysis is that an ex-post lender-of-last-resort policy is effective only if the government is fiscally credible, and that a reserve position augments the fiscal resources and allows the government to eliminate banking panics and implement the no-run competitive equilibrium outcome. In chapter 2, I propose a quantitative model of systemic bank runs and sovereign default to study welfare implications of reserve accumulation and bank transfer policies when the fiscal sustainability risk and bank run risk are taken into consideration. Policymakers in developing countries often argue that an important reason for having international reserves is to have adequate liquidity in the event of shocks like bank runs. When countries’ fundamentals are weak, pessimistic expectations of investors can lead to runs on the domestic banking system. A government which commits to aggressively intervene ex-post can help to eliminate the ”pessimistic” run equilibrium. Such intervention, by simply borrowing in the face of an impending crisis, is costly because interest rates rise sharply in crisis times. One way to prepare for crises is to build up a stock of international reserves in normal times. The model connects the roles of reserves with private economic activity via the government’s financing need for discretionary expenditures that stems from promised bailouts of the banking system in crisis times. In the quantitative exercise, I find that a procyclical reserves accumulation-decumulation policy equal 2.5% of output, when