关键词：
Economics
摘要：
The dissertation studies the sources of business cycles taking both an open and a closed economy perspective. A common feature of the two chapters composing the dissertation is the use of simple, but powerful classifications and identifications of sources of business cycles. In particular, the first chapter, titled “What are the Sources of Boom-Bust Cycles?”, concerns the distinction between economic fluctuations due to changes in beliefs, and fluctuations due to changes in fundamentals, showing results that challenge traditional approaches to modeling business cycles. The second chapter, titled “Shocks and Exchange Rates in Small Open Economies”, takes the perspective of small open economies, and concerns the distinc- tion between global and domestic shocks, showing results that are informative for a series of puzzling facts concerning the dynamics of the exchange rate. In “What are the Sources of Boom-Bust Cycles?,” joint with Marco Brianti, we provide a synthesis of two major views on economic fluctuations. One view maintains that expansions and recessions arise from the interchange of positive and negative persistent exogenous shocks to fundamentals. This is the conventional view that gave rise to the profusion of shocks used in modern dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models. In contrast, a second view, which we call the endogenous cycles view, holds that business cycle fluctuations are due to forces that are internal to the economy and that endogenously favor recurrent periods of boom followed by a bust. In this environment, cycles can occur after small perturba- tions of the long run equilibrium. We find empirical evidence pointing at the coexistence of both views. In particular, we find that the cyclical behaviour of economic aggregates is due in part to strong internal mechanisms that generate boom-bust phenomena in response to small changes in expectations, and in part to the interchange of positive and negative persistent fundamental shocks. Motivate
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