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关键词： Economics   Macroeconomics   Economics   Mathematical   Labor market   Credit  

摘要： This dissertation consists on three essays, inquiring about the usefulness of disaggregated data and cross-sectional causal effects to improve our understanding of traditional questions in macroeconomics, both for economic fluctuations and long-run outcomes. In Chapter 1, I explore whether the large body of cross-sectional evidence that established the adverse effects of cuts in the supply of bank lending on firm outcomes and the allocation of credit is relevant at the aggregate level. I estimate this aggregate effect using a new general equilibrium model that incorporates multibank firms, relationship banking, endogenous credit dependence, and bank market power. I use a set of cross-sectional patterns to estimate the key structural parameters of the model. The effect of an aggregate lending cut on aggregate output is large: a 1 percent decline in aggregate bank lending supply reduces aggregate output by 0.2 percent. The structure of labor and credit markets is important in reaching this answer. Under an alternative parametrization of the model that ignores input market frictions, the response of aggregate output is three times smaller. Under my preferred parametrization, the cross-sectional effects survive aggregation in general equilibrium. Instead, with frictionless input markets the cross-sectional patterns over-estimate the aggregate response by a factor of five. In Chapter 2, written with Sergio Ocampo, we study how the efficacy of development policies---such as job-guarantee programs, unemployment insurance, and micro-finance---depends on the prevalence of low-earning self-employed individuals. To this end, we develop a new general equilibrium occupational choice model that is consistent with the behavior and composition of self-employment. Our model differs from previous work by allowing unemployment risk to shape the selection of agents into self-employment. Models that rely only on financial frictions are at odds with crucial features of self-employment in

关键词： Economics   Macroeconomics   Business cycles  

摘要： This dissertation combines micro-level empirical analyses and general equilibrium structural models to study shock propagation mechanisms and business cycles dynamics, with a particular emphasis on the role played by firms. In the first chapter, we study how regional shocks spill over across U.S. local markets through intra-firm market networks and explore how such spillovers reshape household welfare across regions. We link data on barcode-region-level prices and quantities with producer-level information to exploit variation in firms' initial exposure to differential drops in local house prices in the 2007-09 recession. We show that a firm's local sales decrease in response to not only direct negative local demand shock but also indirect negative local demand shocks originating in its other markets. Intra-firm cross-market spillover effects arise mainly from product creation and destruction, whereas direct local shock operates through the sales of continuing products. Spillover effects occur because (i) firms replace products that have higher value---sales per product, unit price, and organic sales share---with lower-value ones in response to negative demand shocks, and (ii) such product replacements are synchronized across many markets within each firm. Counterfactual analysis using an estimated multi-region model with endogenous quality adjustments shows that our channel works as a novel inter-regional shock transmission mechanism and generates an implicit regional redistribution effect. Such effect is economically sizable and is comparable to the size of transfer policies implemented during the Great Recession. In the second chapter, we investigate a role of supply chain network in transmitting housing market disruptions during the Great Recession. We build up a unique micro-level data that combines local housing market condition, firms' sales in each local market, and firm-level supply chain network information. Exploiting firm-specific demand shock stemming f

关键词： Economics  

摘要： The dissertation studies the sources of business cycles taking both an open and a closed economy perspective. A common feature of the two chapters composing the dissertation is the use of simple, but powerful classifications and identifications of sources of business cycles. In particular, the first chapter, titled “What are the Sources of Boom-Bust Cycles?”, concerns the distinction between economic fluctuations due to changes in beliefs, and fluctuations due to changes in fundamentals, showing results that challenge traditional approaches to modeling business cycles. The second chapter, titled “Shocks and Exchange Rates in Small Open Economies”, takes the perspective of small open economies, and concerns the distinc- tion between global and domestic shocks, showing results that are informative for a series of puzzling facts concerning the dynamics of the exchange rate. In “What are the Sources of Boom-Bust Cycles?,” joint with Marco Brianti, we provide a synthesis of two major views on economic fluctuations. One view maintains that expansions and recessions arise from the interchange of positive and negative persistent exogenous shocks to fundamentals. This is the conventional view that gave rise to the profusion of shocks used in modern dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models. In contrast, a second view, which we call the endogenous cycles view, holds that business cycle fluctuations are due to forces that are internal to the economy and that endogenously favor recurrent periods of boom followed by a bust. In this environment, cycles can occur after small perturba- tions of the long run equilibrium. We find empirical evidence pointing at the coexistence of both views. In particular, we find that the cyclical behaviour of economic aggregates is due in part to strong internal mechanisms that generate boom-bust phenomena in response to small changes in expectations, and in part to the interchange of positive and negative persistent fundamental shocks. Motivate

摘要： 自凯恩斯出版《通论》以来,现代宏观经济学已走过八十余年的风雨历程,之后传统凯恩斯主义宏观经济学又被罗伯特〃卢卡斯创立的动态随机宏观经济学赶下神坛,而2008年金融危机后,宏观经济学的现实意义和未来发展更引发了学界的关注,如今是时候对这门学科的思想脉络进行梳理了。

关键词： Macroeconomics   emerging markets   informality   news shocks   capital controls  

摘要： Chapter 1. Law enforcement and the size of the informal sector. I assemble new cross-country evidence showing that contrary to the standard view, the relationship between the size of the informal sector and tax rates is, at best, ambiguous. Law enforcement and informality also show no clear relation. Motivated by these findings, I augment a standard two-sector (formal and informal) small open economy model with endogenous law enforcement that depends on the size of the informal sector (measured by its assets) and government expenditure. I use a micro-dataset from Colombia to show that both taxes and law enforcement are necessary to match the the size of the informal sector observed in the data. In the absence of law enforcement, tax evasion incentives imply a counterfactually large informal sector. However, law enforcement motivates households to reduce the supply of capital to the informal sector, hence decreasing the probability of detection. The dependence of the latter on government expenditure creates a non-linearity between tax rates and the size of the informal sector through a Laffer curve. The model implies that lowering tax rates would not necessarily reduce the size of the informal sector since there is a trade-off with the capability of law enforcement. Chapter 2. News shocks across countries: An empirical investigation. We estimate the role of news shocks to total factor productivity, foreign interest rates and commodity terms of trade in explaining the variance of output and other macro aggregates in a large sample of countries. To correct for the small-sample bias of the variance decomposition estimates we develop a Bootstrap-after-Bootstrap method. We find that the mean difference of variance share of output explained by news shocks between developing and developed countries is: I) Negligible for news shocks to total factor productivity. II) Positive for news shocks to foreign interest rates (6 p.p) and to commodity terms of trade (8.3 p.p). Using cr

关键词： Economics   Political Science  

摘要： This thesis consists of three self-contained articles. In the first article "The Common Currency Channel of Risk Sharing", I propose a new channel of international risk sharing: the common currency channel. I show theoretically that the central bank of a currency union can use the common currency to insure member countries against consumption risk from idiosyncratic productivity shocks. A trade-off between risk-sharing and moral hazard emerges: a central bank which enables risk sharing induces countries to free-ride on each other’s production efforts. I study this trade-off and derive rules for a central bank striking the optimal balance between insurance and incentives. Monetary policy determines current account imbalances that are financed through the central bank. Optimal policy is contingent on the realization of aggregate production. The central bank should lower its policy rate in response to a decrease in aggregate production to provide insurance through the common currency. Revisiting European Central Bank policies during the Eurocrisis between 2008 and 2014, I interpret the buildup of TARGET2 balances as risk sharing through the common currency. I find that this channel accounts for up to 60% of risk sharing among Eurozone countries in the early stages of the Eurocrisis. I conclude that the common currency can be a substitute for risk sharing through fiscal integration. The second article "Riding the Cycle" (joint work with Christoph Wolf) studies the interplay between the business cycle and financial contracting. If the success probability of an investment project is increasing in both the business cycle state and the borrower’s effort, then the borrower can free-ride on the cycle. In a model of financial contracting with moral hazard, we show that this free-riding generates procyclical agency costs. The overall effect of business cycle conditions on credit availability depends on how changes in agency costs compare to cycle-induced changes in the net pres

ISBN: (纸本)9787301314746

关键词： 宏观经济学   “线上+线下”   混合式教学  

摘要： 在经济学专业课程教学中，“线上+线下”混合式教学已经逐渐成为顺应新时代信息化、电子化教学改革的需要。混合式教学在提升学习效率、加强课程拓展、发挥学生主观能动性等诸多方面都具有突出作用，但在实施过程中还存在着各种问题。因此，探索“线上+线下”混合式教学在经济学专业课程中的应用，实现“线上+线下”混合式的优势互补，对推进经济学专业课程建设具有重要的现实意义。

关键词： 宏观经济学   翻译目的论   词汇翻译   标题的翻译方法   长句的翻译策略  

摘要： 本篇翻译实践报告以『ゃさ しいマク口経済学』(节选)为原文本进行日译汉翻译实践。本书作者是一桥大学研究生院经济学研究科教授盐路悦朗,由日本经济新闻出版社2019年2月出版发行。笔者将日文书名翻译成《简单宏观经济学》。本次翻译实践的日文文本一共23029字(不含图表文字),汉译文本达到15000字之多。作者盐路悦朗以GDP、物价、利率、汇率等为题材,解释日本国家整体的经济活动和结构,尽量用简单的话来解释宏观经济学原理和一些经济现象,其目的是让毫无经济学背景的读者也能轻松读懂书中内容。那么,将此书翻译成汉语文本后,是否能让汉语读者对书中内容感同身受呢?这就需要译者的翻译功力和努力了。在翻译过程中,一方面语言表达要严谨规范,另一方面要贴近汉语读者的阅读习惯。原文本属于经济学文本,需要将文章内容完整地传递给读者,但并不意味着翻译时要一字一句地生搬硬套。本次翻译实践在德国功能派主要翻译理论家汉斯·弗米尔的“翻译目的论”的指导下进行,根据译文的预期目的或功能,选择相应的翻译策略。同时结合直译、意译、加译、倒译等翻译技巧,力求使译文达到最佳的翻译效果。作为一名译员,不仅要有扎实的翻译理论基础,还要具备相关领域的专业知识背景。如法律文本的翻译需要具备相关的法律知识、经济学文本的翻译需要具备相关的经济学知识等。一般翻译工作都有规定交稿期限,译员不可能在短期内去系统地学习一门专业知识。为了提高译文的准确性和专业性,这就需要参照平行文本。平行文本是指与原文内容接近的所有参考资料,译者可借助图书、杂志、报刊、互联网和其他电子工具进行查询与比对,此方法可弥补译者在语言和专业知识方面的欠缺。因此,笔者在翻译实践过程中阅读了大量的宏观经济学书籍。本篇翻译实践报告分为五大部分。第一部分为引言,主要介绍进行本次翻译实践的背景,阐述本次任务的目的以及如何提高经济学文本翻译的准确性和专业性。第二部分主要介绍本次翻译任务的起源,分析原文文本特点,说明节选第二、三章作为原文本进行翻译实践的理由。第三部分介绍译前的准备工作,如准备相关纸质工具书、做译前背景调查等。记录初译、改译、审校三个翻译阶段的工作。第四部分为案例分析,将翻译实践中出现的问题分为词汇翻译、标题翻译、句子翻译三大类。其中,词汇翻译挑选了文本中比较典型的外来语、专业术语、和制汉语词、一词多义词来进行分析,并总结翻译方法;标题和句子翻译则在“翻译目的论”的指导下,运用直译、意译等翻译技巧,尽量使译文达到“信、达、雅”的效果。第五部分主要总结笔者在本次翻译实践中的收获,同时指出翻译实践中存在的问题和不足。在本次翻译实践过程中,笔者学习到了很多宏观经济学方面的知识,扩充了知识储备,也学会了用书中的理论去思考生活中的一些经济现象;在研究翻译理论和翻译技巧的过程中,翻译实践能力也得到了锻炼和提升。同时,笔者也认识到了自身翻译实践经验的不足,想要成为一名合格的译员,还需要不断实践、积累经验。总之,本次翻译实践收获良多。

关键词： 开放宏观经济学   五代传承   学术创新   Open Macroeconomics   Inheritance of Five Generations   Academic Innovation  

摘要： 本文从师承这一崭新视角梳理了以Meade为起点的五代经济学家的学术贡献，廓清了开放宏观经济学的发展脉络。五代学术传承以“继承+创新”与“现实+理论+政策”为逻辑主线，新开放宏观经济学更加注重经济失衡与危机等非均衡问题。此外，第五代经济学家中越来越多发展中国家背景的学者脱颖而出。