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ISBN: (纸本)9787305242151

关键词： 建党精神   新时代   研究生   课程思政  

摘要： 研究生课程要挖掘思政元素,就必须有生动而深刻的素材及高水平、高质量、令人信服的分析。通过论述建党精神,讲述中国共产党在逆境中奋斗崛起的故事,不仅实现了研究生课程高水平的素材要求,还引发了研究生对中国奇迹的思考,在理论上寻求中国故事的原因,帮助研究生坚定信仰、树立信念,培养成为乐于奉献社会的有用人才。

关键词： 对分课堂   宏观经济学   隔堂对分   当堂对分  

摘要： 《宏观经济学》作为经济管理类专业的专业基础课,以往采用的传统"授受"教学模式,伴生出学生思维活动不积极等问题。"对分课堂"作为一种新型的课堂教学模式,有益于激发学生的学习主动性和提高学习效率。将"对分课堂"植入《宏观经济学》教学中,可通过合理选择使用次数及类型,有效安排对分课堂课后作业,推动课程教学效果的提升。

摘要： In this dissertation, I study how firm dynamics affect business cycles and monetary policy. In Chapter 1, I study the effects of pro-cyclical entry on aggregate employment in a general equilibrium framework. The key features of the model are that firms’ markups increase with market share and adjustment costs prevent employment from reallocating across firms. In response to a decline in entry, incumbent firms’ market shares increase and they increase markups and reduce employment. To quantify this mechanism in the model, I study the relationship between variable inputs and revenues in panel data on large firms. Viewed through the lens of my model, my estimates imply that for large firms the within-firm elasticity of the markup to relative sales is 35%. I then study shocks to entry in a model that is calibrated to be consistent with this elasticity, finding that a fall in entry can lead to a significant contraction in employment. A shock to entry that replicates the decline in the number of businesses during the Great Recession generates a prolonged 3 percent fall in employment in the model. Finally, I show that the increasing correlation between market shares and markups over the last 30 years implies that the effect of entry on the business cycle is becoming stronger with time. In Chapter 2, I study monetary non-neutrality in a frictional product market. The model incorporates the idea that goods are in general not monopolistically supplied; rather, consumers can purchase the same good from many outlets. I find that incorporating this feature into a menu cost model increases the degree of monetary non-neutrality. The reason is that competition between stores makes their prices complementary, so that firms face strong penalties for setting prices far away from their competitors. It makes pass-through of cost shocks heterogeneous and decreases the strength of the selection effect. I also use the model to study cyclical changes in monetary non-neutrality. I find that t

关键词： 货币供应量   IPO破发   机构投资者情绪   行为经济学   宏观经济学  

摘要： 中国证券市场交易额从1994年的183亿迅速增长至2020年的20万亿,中国证券市场在近二十年取得了较为瞩目的发展,但其发展过程中也存在着许多中国证券市场特有的异象,最具代表性的是中国证券市场的上市企业IPO首日破发较少,即IPO首日抑价率较高的现象。目前中国学术界对IPO破发的研究已经较为普遍,论文主要研究货币供应量对IPO破发的影响,目前这个研究相对较少,论文的研究将有利于政府、广大投资者进一步理解货币供应量对IPO破发的影响机制。本文基于行为经济学、宏观经济学理论研究货币供应量对IPO破发的影响,以及货币供应量对IPO破发的影响机制。针对该课题研究,论文采用了文献研究法及实证研究方法相结合进行相关分析。首先,在文献研究部分,通过回顾前人关于货币政策、投资者情绪及IPO破发等相关文献,了解有关问题的研究成果,帮助变量指标选用的准确性。其次,在实证部分,被解释变量中的货币供应量选取货币供应量(M2)作为代理指标,机构投资者情绪则选取网下累计超额认购倍数均值作为代理指标。论文将解释变量中的IPO破发率分为短期破发率以及长期破发率,并进一步建立货币供应量、机构投资者情绪与IPO破发率的相关假设及因果关系模型,通过回归分析进行验证假设。研究结论显示:1)货币供应量(M2)与IPO短期破发率具有显著的负相关关系,货币供应量(M2)越大,IPO短期破发率越低。2)货币供应量(M2)与IPO长期破发率具有显著的负相关关系,货币供应量(M2)越大,IPO长期破发率越低。3)货币供应量(M2)越大,会正向激励机构投资者情绪,进而抑制短期的破发率。4)机构投资者情绪并非是货币供应量(M2)影响长期破发率的一条潜在传导渠道。

摘要： This dissertation provides new analytical frameworks of network and behavioral theories in order to answer real-world economic questions where more simplified traditional models have struggled to explain. In Chapter 1, I provide a theory of international portfolio investments where international investors have heterogeneous consumption preferences and goods are produced in a global production network. While traditional two-country models can only explain the asset allocation between domestic and foreign assets, my theory explains also the composition of external investments, i.e. how investors should optimally allocate their investments between multiple foreign destinations. I solve in closed form for the optimal equity and bond portfolio investments in a workhorse multi-country real business cycle model and show in Chapter 2 that the network-theory implied portfolio has empirical explanatory power for the actual portfolio holding patterns observed in the data. In Chapter 3, I provide a behavioral-based explanation of two recent macroeconomic puzzles: (i) the anchoring of inflation and (ii) the flattening of the Phillips Curve. In particular, I introduce endogenous behavioral inattention into the standard New Keynesian model and derive a new Phillips Curve, called the Behavioral-Attention Phillips Curve (BAPC). The BAPC has both an output-gap slope and inflation-expectation slope that decline with inflation uncertainty in the economy. Using data from the Michigan Surveys of Consumers, I estimate the BAPC and show that it provides a better in-sample and out-of-sample fit of the US inflation dynamics since 1978 than traditional versions.

摘要： Essay 1: Exchange Rate Dynamics and Global Monetary Policy Spillovers: Time-Varying Dynamic Causal Effects. We propose a novel econometric approach to estimate time-varying dynamic causal effects of structural shocks using external instruments in a factor-augmented-VAR model. Using the Bayesian MCMC estimation method we estimate a model consisting of output, inflation rates, interest rates, and exchange rates for the United States, Canada, Germany, Japan, and the United Kingdom. We find uniformly strong evidence over time that the exchange rate overshoots in response to an exogenous monetary policy shock. Furthermore, we find that the monetary policy shock played a significant role in the exchange rate dynamics, and its contributions were particularly large during the 2008-2009 financial crisis. Essay2: Commodity Return Comovement, Exchange Rate, and Uncertainty Shock. This paper investigates how the uncertainty shock affects the commodity return empirically, using a time-varying parameter dynamic factor model with stochastic volatility (TVP-DFM-SV). We extract a common factor and eight sector-specific factors from 43 different commodity returns (Ma, Vivian, and Wohar, 2019). The common factor is interpreted as the combination of the shocks which only affects the commodity markets idiosyncratic through the general equilibrium (Alquist, Bhattarai and Coibion, 2019), and is orthogonal to the sector-specific factors and commodity-idiosyncratic factors. Then we show the time-varying impulse responses of the common factor and several relevant marco fundamentals to uncertainty shock identified by the external instrument variable (IV). We find that uncertainty shock decreases the commodity return through the common factor, and this effect is time-varying, specifically, during the recession it is stronger. Besides, the uncertainty shock could be a reason behind the negative relationship between commodity return and the strength of the US dollar. Essay3: A New Approach to Co

摘要： This dissertation is composed of three essays, two in international macroeconomics and one in climate econometrics. The former center on two main features of emerging market economies: financial dollarization of private portfolios, and sudden stops in capital flows. The first essay explores the reasons behind the high levels of financial dollarization in Latin American economies and suggests that dollarization can arise within a country from the interaction of households and domestic firms, de-emphasizing the role of international financial markets. The second examines how the debt choice from a social planner that makes a decision that is robust to a worst-case distribution of shocks, consistent with the data, results in higher optimal macroprudential taxes that reduce the probability and severity of a sudden stop, but do not necessarily improve welfare gains. The third essay, in climate econometrics, finds estimates of the transient climate response, a measure of the short-run impact of increasing carbon dioxide concentrations on mean global temperatures, by employing instrumental variables to address simultaneous causality bias from feedback effects of temperature on concentrations. Estimates of the TCR fall within the range in the IPCC-AR5 and provide new observational confirmation of model-based estimates.

摘要： Chapter 1 proposes a theory of credit cycles driven by the private production of opaque, liquid assets (e.g., ABS or CLOs). Opacity enhances assets' liquidity, permitting greater issuance volumes, but prevents investors from determining whether the underlying projects are of low quality. Strong macroeconomic fundamentals give rise to credit booms characterized by opaque asset origination and pervasive credit misallocation. As bad projects build up in the economy, investors begin to question the value of opaque assets and eventually refuse to finance them altogether, precipitating a collapse in investment. The bust has a cleansing effect: opaque origination is abandoned, and investors no longer finance projects whose quality they cannot evaluate. I show that a policymaker would limit opaque intermediation during booms in order to moderate the subsequent bust. Chapter 2 presents a model in which agents with heterogeneous beliefs borrow by using a physical asset and the liabilities of other agents as collateral. In equilibrium, a chain of lending emerges: each agent lends to the next-most optimistic agent and borrows from the next-most pessimistic agent. Intermediation allows optimists to lever up while pessimists invest in safe assets. In extensions of the benchmark model, I examine the implications of this arrangement for financial stability and relate the model's predictions to stylized facts. Chapter 3, which was co-authored with Markus Brunnermeier, develops a model of digital record-keeping. Traditional centralized record-keeping systems establish a consensus based on trust in the record-keeper. Trust arises from the ability to incentivize honest reporting. Rents extracted by the record-keeper create an internal source of trust, allowing the system to be self-sufficient. Blockchains decentralize record-keeping, dispensing with the need for trust in a single entity. Some build a consensus based on externally verifiable resource costs (proof-of-work), whereas other

关键词： 人力资本   家庭经济学   宏观经济学   家庭结构   家庭决策  

摘要： 作为“经济增长的引擎”，人力资本具有重要的经济学研究价值。现实中，绝大多数人一生中最重要的人力资本都在其人生早期阶段积累，且这一阶段的人力资本投资又基本上是在家庭内部进行的。但是，传统宏观经济学鲜有对这一过程的具体讨论，大多采用代表性家庭来加以抽象与简化。近年来，随着家庭经济学研究的深入与发展，相应的研究思路和方法也逐渐被纳入人力资本理论研究中。很多研究通过将家庭结构、家庭决策同人力资本积累过程相结合的方式构建了较为统一的理论框架，从而拓展并加深了对异质性家庭成员间的互动关系、家庭组织特征等内容的研究。也有很多实证研究从家庭角度入手，利用新的数据和方法检验经典理论、拓展渠道检验、评估政策效力等。因此，系统的文献梳理有利于加深我们对人力资本理论的理解，拓展经济学研究的思路和可能性。在当前中国社会经济和人口结构转型的特殊背景下，还有利于增强理论对现实的解释力和对政策的启发性。