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关键词： Macroeconomics   Public Finance   Overlapping generations   Red states   Blue states  

摘要： This dissertation applies advanced and novel computational tools to two major classes of economic simulations – large-scale, multi-region overlapping generations (OLG) models and models of lifetime consumption optimization. Chapters one and two develop large-scale, global OLG models to simulate, respectively, the future of automation and consequences of major corporate tax reform. Chapters three and four utilize The Fiscal Analyzer (TFA), a lifetime consumption smoothing algorithm, to estimate lifetime marginal tax rates of American workers and evaluate the impact of the Tax Cuts and Job Act (TCJA) on residents of red and blue states.

关键词： 宏观经济学   经济逻辑   微观假设   经济传递机制　　macroeconomics   economic logic   micro assumptions   economic transmission mechanism  

摘要： 文章通过总结近20年来大时代的五大变化对于宏观经济学界提出的四大挑战，深入分析了宏观经济学界对于这些挑战所进行的实践创新和理论创新，指出美国金融危机带来的对于金融失灵问题和宏观哲学的反思，长期停滞带来对于低利率和经济停滞的反思，新冠肺炎疫情和俄乌战争带来对极端状态下各种经济运行指标和经济逻辑的反思，以及数字技术革命带来对宏观经济学的微观假设和经济传递机制变化的反思，已构成了未来宏观经济学发展的4大主线，这些理论上的发展无论是边际性的调整还是革命性的重构都需要我们用开放的态度来拥抱。

关键词： 特朗普税改法案   宏观经济学模型   资本回流  

摘要： 文章基于特朗普税改法案的某些特点，修改了新古典模型、索络模型和大型开放经济体IS-LM模型中的某些假设与变量，对新古典模型中的K、索络模型中的s和k、IS-LM模型中的I和CF给出了新定义。最终使用创新后的新古典模型、索络模型和IS-LM模型，对特朗普税改法案进行了分析，探讨该法案可能存在的对失业率、国民总收入、利率等宏观经济的影响，以供参考。

关键词： Essentialism   Socioeconomic status   Ethnicity  

摘要： Essentialism is the tendency to believe members of a category share an underlying essence that predicts their behavior. The majority of research on essentialism has focused on race and gender, and thus less is known about the essentialism of other categories such as ethnicity and socioeconomic status (SES). Using a predominantly Hispanic, lowincome sample, we examined whether adults essentialize ethnicity and SES and whether their essentialism level is shaped by their own ethnicity (Hispanic, non-Hispanic) and SES background. Results suggested that participants essentialized ethnicity to a high level and essentialized SES to a limited degree. Contrary to our prediction, adults’ own ethnicity and SES did not affect their essentialism of ethnicity and SES respectively. However, Hispanic participants essentialized SES more than non-Hispanic participants. Future research on a broader range of Hispanic samples is needed to test the underlying mechanism and implications of such belief patterns.

关键词： Macro labor economics  

摘要： This dissertation studies the role of occupation-specific human capital in explaining the long-run decline in labor market dynamics observed in the United States for the past four decades. Chapter 1 presents empirical facts on labor market outcomes by required occupation-specific training. This is to provide evidence that (i) required length of occupation-specific training is a proxy for the specificity of human capital to perform the occupation and that (ii) increasing occupation specificity has led to the decline in labor market dynamics. First, I find from the Dictionary of Occupational Titles and O*NET that for the past four decades, within occupations, there has been an increase the amount of time needed to become trained in the occupation. I then find from the Survey of Income and Program Participation that the average wage loss experienced by occupation switchers after unemployment increases when their occupation held before unemployment has faced over time an increase in occupation-specific training. I take this as evidence that the observed increase in occupation-specific training over time has made human capital less transferable across occupations. I then proceed to use the Monthly Current Population Survey, combined with the required length of occupation-specific training by occupation from the Dictionary of Occupational Titles and O*NET, to do a shift-share decomposition of the decline in labor market outcomes. The decline in the aggregate job separation rate and the increase in unemployment duration is accounted for mostly by the increase in specific training within occupations. Motivated by my empirical analysis, in Chapter 2, I then build a search-and-matching model to learn how the increase in specificity within occupations explains the decline in the aggregate job separation rate. The main ingredients are endogenous job separations and occupation-specific human capital that workers acquire during employment and lose when they switch occupations. My

关键词： OBE   翻转课堂   宏观经济学  

摘要： 利用现代信息技术，可以有效实现基于OBE理念下的课堂翻转，在调动学生学习参与、主动和积极性方面均可取得事半功倍的成效。对本科生宏观经济学课教学中的整体设计进行了系统思考，从宏观、中观及微观三个角度进行设计，并按设定策略和流程组织教学，从结果测评比较来看，能更好地达成教学目标，收到良好的教学效果。

关键词： Domestic labor income   Hold-up power   Position specificity   Separation elasticities   Wage markdown  

摘要： In the first essay, we argue that productive firms share rents with workers only in occupations where workers have individual hold-up power. We present a model of wage determination where firms produce using a novel generalization of Kremer (1993)'s O-ring production function. Workers have individual hold-up power if (i) labor is organized into distinct, differentiated positions (ii) the output of positions is individually complementary or "critical" in the production process, and (iii) skills are position-specific, i.e., skills are acquired on the job and are not transferable across positions or firms. If output losses from an unfilled position are larger at productive firms, incomplete contracts and on-the-job search incentivize productive firms to pay differentially high wages. We estimate individual worker hold-up power by occupation using the effect of worker deaths on firm profits in Danish administrative data and using a measure of within-firm, across-position task differentiation from US job posting data. High hold-up occupations exhibit both higher wage levels and higher long-run passthrough of permanent firm productivity innovations to wages, supporting the main model predictions. Accounting for heterogeneity in hold-up power across occupations has numerous implications for wage inequality: (1) greater employment of men in high hold-up occupations can account for one fifth of the Danish gender wage gap; (2) rising "superstar firms" increase wage inequality; (3) hold-up power decreases the responsiveness of wages to labor market slack. In the second essay, we argue that secular change in both the production and composition of investment goods has weakened private investment's role in the transmission of monetary policy to labor earnings and consumption. We show analytically that fluctuations in the production of investment goods amplify the response of consumption to monetary policy shocks by varying labor income for hand-to-mouth agents. We document three

关键词： 宏观经济学课程   课程思政   思政教育  

摘要： 课程思政是落实立德树人的重要举措，是顺应新时代发展的必然要求。宏观经济学是经济管理类专业的基础课，应立足课程思政目标重构教学内容，在教学过程中主动融入中国优秀传统文化、中国特色社会主义价值等思政元素，创新教学手段，真正实现与思政教育的协同效应。基于此，文章对宏观经济学课程思政教学展开了详细的研究。

关键词： Macroeconomics  

摘要： In the first Chapter of this Dissertation, I develop an integrated reasoning model of expectations formation to describe how people learn the effects of novel macroeconomic policies. My model of expectations has two key elements. First, people have a limited ability to understand the general-equilibrium effects of a new policy. Second, they revise expectations when observing past errors with a process of learning in real time. To assess the empirical plausibility of the model, I estimate the response of survey-level expectations to identified forward guidance shocks. The time-series properties of forecast errors and revisions show that i) individuals immediately revise beliefs after announcements; ii) forecasts underreact to the shock; and iii) beliefs are slowly updated over time. In contrast to commonly used alternative models, I show that the predictions of my framework are consistent with this empirical evidence. I estimate parameters to match the response of forecast revisions to the policy shocks. In the estimated model, the endogenous expectations revision due to real-time learning of the effects of a forward guidance announcement accounts for 35% of the cumulative output response. In the second Chapter, coauthored with Martin Eichenbaum and Joao Guerreiro, we address the following question: how sensitive is the power of fiscal policy at the ZLB to the assumption of rational expectations? We do so through the lens of a standard NK model in which people are level-k thinkers. Our analysis weakens the case for using government spending to stabilize the economy when the ZLB binds. The less sophisticated people are, the smaller the government-spending multiplier is. Our analysis strengthens the case for using tax policy to stabilize output when the ZLB is binding. The power of tax policy to stabilize the economy during the ZLB period is essentially undiminished when agents do not have rational expectations. Finally, we show that the way in which tax policy is comm

关键词： 混合式教学   线上线下   超星学习通平台   教学设计  

摘要： 在互联网时代,充分利用现代教育技术手段开展线上线下混合式教学,既有利于培养学生的自主学习能力,又有利于发挥教师引导、启发、监控教学过程的作用,实现提高教学效果的目标。对《宏观经济学》进行混合式教学实践,包括课前精心教学构思,利用学习通平台进行有效的课堂教学,课后互动讨论,巩固学习内容三个环节。平台的调查结果显示,混合式教学的实践提高了学生的学习兴趣和能力,更好地达到了教学效果。