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关键词： Macroeconomics   Banking risk   Natural rate   Bank-holding companies   Zero lower bound  

摘要： This dissertation investigates empirical macroeconomics and finance, primarily focusing on asset pricing factors, the natural rate, and banking risk. In Chapter 1, we explore the explanation for the decline in interest rates after the 1980s from the perspective of the increasing earning share in the corporate sector, using a semi-structural model with sufficient flexibility. By incorporating rich yield curve information and carefully considering the zero lower bound (ZLB) monetary policy environment, we find that the increase in earning share plays a significant role in interpreting the interest rate trend. In our estimation, it accounts for around 54 percent of the declining natural rate, while the output growth trend for the corporate sector explains the remaining 46 percent. In Chapter 2, we propose a new framework of estimating the statistical factors explaining the asset returns in cross section. By using the Supervised PCA (SPCA) method and selecting traditional asset pricing factors as supervising labels, we are able to find the principle components explaining most of the variation in asset returns while also exhibiting a strong dependence on traditional asset pricing factors. On the one hand, our approach finds using better-priced traditional asset pricing factors as supervising labels is caple of improving the performance of principle components. On the other hand, SPCA factors outperform both plain PCA factors and traditional factors with respect to pricing error in some scenarios by improving the estimation for asset returns that are mostly correlated with supervising labels. In Chapter 3, we use a dynamic factor model with time-varying loading parameters and stochastic volatility in order to identify the exposure of 100 Bank-holding Companies (BHCs) to aggregate shocks. We establish some empirical regularities about the evolution of exposure to common factors in the banking industry has evolved during 1998-2019 and find that during the period following t

关键词： Macroeconomics   Mutual fund   Bank factor   Monetary policy   Corporate bond   Economic state  

摘要： This dissertation consists of three chapters, each containing a distinct research paper in the field of macroeconomics. In the first chapter, I estimate the impact of mutual fund flows on corporate bond prices, issuance and firm investment. I leverage variation caused by the COVID-19 induced financial panic of March 2020 and find that safer firms suffered a larger impact in the component of bond spreads that does not compensate for expected default risk. However, I do not detect impacts of fund flows on issuance or investment. A simple model predicts liquidation decisions and price responses as being driven by demand and liquidation elasticities, which depend on the characteristics of the bond return processes. In the second chapter, we ask: what is the importance of firm and bank credit factors in determining investment responses to monetary policy? We decompose variation in corporate loan growth rates into purely firm-level and bank-level variation. The estimated factors are correlated with a set of variables that proxy for the firm’s and bank’s financial health. Firms with a higher borrowing factor experience relatively larger investment responses to an unexpected interest rate shock; the effect is muted when the shock is the reveal of central bank information. The bank factor does not induce similar heterogeneity in investment responses. In the third chapter, we ask: what is the nature of optimal monetary policy and central bank disclosure when the monetary authority is uncertain about the economic state? We consider a model in which firms make nominal pricing decisions and the central bank sets the nominal interest rate under incomplete information. We find that implementing flexible-price allocations is both feasible and optimal despite the existence of numerous measurability constraints; we explore a series of different implementations. When monetary policy is sub-optimal, public information disclosure by the central bank is welfare-improving as long as eithe

关键词： 学科融合   案例教学法   发散思维   宏观经济学   效果评价  

摘要： 为提升本科生宏观经济学课程的教学效果，加强宏观经济学与相关学科之间的联系，本文提出了以培养学生的发散思维为核心的学科融合式案例教学法，在宏观经济学教学中引入了与保险业相关的案例。文章总结了学科融合式案例教学法在宏观经济学课程教学中的实施过程，用Topsis模型对学生的课堂表现做出评价，并以调查问卷形式对学生满意度、接受度进行调查，得出：学科融合式案例教学法具有提高学生学习兴趣、促进不同学科间知识的融会贯通等优势。文章同时指出了教学实践中有待解决的问题，为教师进一步改革课堂教学方法提供借鉴。

关键词： 宏观经济学   宏观动力学   词汇翻译   语句翻译   动态对等  

摘要： 在当前经济全球化的背景下,国家与国家之间的交流愈加频繁。但是在以开放与合作为国际主流的国际形势下,经济冲突和贸易摩擦仍然不断出现。尤其在新冠疫情以及俄乌冲突的影响下,全球经济又面临着新一轮的冲击和考验,国际贸易冲突以及经济波动等不稳定现象不断增多。因此,企业和政府在当前情况下需要采取手段来有效的规避这些风险,通过学习和分析经济学家的观点和理论能够为企业和政府提供一定的思路和方法,企业管理者则根据实际情况进行结构调整,使企业更具发展潜力。同样,对于国家经济管理部门来说,通过研究这些重要的经济理论,不仅能够了解经济发展情况,进一步宏观调控经济运行,优化资源配置,还能够为保持国民经济长期稳定持续发展提供战略支持和准确定位。因此,此篇翻译实践报告就有着非常重要的意义。此次翻译实践报告的翻译素材选自《模拟经济不稳定性》第一至五章的内容,作者是迈克尔·阿祖兹和文森特·卡雷特,原文为经济类文本,主要讲述通过引用宏观经济学的观点,来解读经济发展中出现的不稳定现象。文章中还引用了大量宏观经济学家的观点,以此作为支撑文章的论点。同时文中使用了大量的专有词汇和经济学术语,这也是笔者在翻译过程中遇到的重点和难点,通过对这篇文章的翻译也让笔者对经济学领域的知识有了更多的了解。在翻译过程中,笔者从词汇和语句两个层面,再对文本内出现的专业术语和表达以及词义辨析进行分析。同样对文本内出现的短句,长句,难句和语态进行分析。在解决方案上,笔者采用了几种翻译方法来对文本进行处理,比如:增译法和减译法,在过程中,也会对句子语句进行拆分,语序进行调整。通过撰写此次翻译实践报告,笔者了解了经济学方面的知识,提高发现问题与解决问题的能力,对这一领域的翻译有了更进一步的了解。

摘要： 1995年10月10日，瑞典皇家科学院宣布，把该年度的诺贝尔经济学奖授予美国芝加哥大学教授小罗伯特·艾默生·卢卡斯（Robert Emerson Lucas Junior,1937—2023），以表彰他对“理性预期假说的应用和发展所作的贡献”。他的研究，“改变了宏观经济的分析，深化了人们对经济政策的理解”。卢卡斯对经济周期理论提出了独到的见解，为各国政府制定经济政策提供了崭新的思路。

关键词： 课程思政   宏观经济学   融合教学   思政教学  

摘要： 高等教育是培养人才的主要阵地，在宏观经济学教学中，教师需要积极将思政教育融入专业教学，以中国特色社会主义核心价值观、习近平新时代中国特色社会主义经济思想等思政内容为基础，寻找与宏观经济学理论知识有共性的思政元素，对宏观经济学教学课堂进行重构，实现课程思政与宏观经济学的融合，促进经管类专业学生的全面发展。文章基于课程思政融入宏观经济学教学的意义，分析教学中存在的问题，提出相应的教学策略。

关键词： 混合教学   课程考核   宏观经济学  

摘要： 随着信息技术的迅猛发展，线上线下混合教学模式已经成为现代教育的热点和趋势。然而，在教学改革中，考核方式的改革一直是一个亟待解决的问题。本研究通过对三亚学院“宏观经济学”课程的案例分析，总结线上线下混合教学模式下考核改革的一些成功经验和实践探索。通过这些实践探索，我们发现线上线下混合教学模式下“宏观经济学”课程考核改革是可行和有效的，能够提高学生的学习效果和能力培养。然而，还需要进一步研究和探索，以完善和优化考核方式和教学策略，为线上线下混合教学模式下的课程考核改革提供更多的经验和借鉴。

关键词： 宏观经济学   双语教学   教学效果  

摘要： 在经济全球化发展的今天，国际化人才的需求量也在逐渐攀升，双语化教学成为培养全球化人才、提升人才的国际竞争力的途径之一。宏观经济学是管理学、经济学相关专业的基础课程，有着广大的受众群体，本文以宏观经济学课程双语教学的具体落实为例，重点阐述在实际教学过程中问题，提出对应的解决优化措施，希望有助于双语教学的改革实施。

关键词： Agent-based modeling   Incomplete information   Latin Monetary Union   Production networks   Rational expectation   Rigidities  

摘要： Chapter 1 studies the impact of the Latin Monetary Union (1865-1927) on financial flows between European Countries. Using Machine Learning methods, we find that this monetary union fostered greater financial flows between members, especially before 1885 and except for France. Chapter 2 studies a production network model with quantity rigidities and informational frictions, where firms may be restricted in how effectively they can adjust their intermediate input quantities in response to changes in the economic environment and they need to choose their quantities under incomplete information about the realizations of shocks. The characterization results show that these two frictions lead to a reduction in aggregate output, as firms may find it optimal to rely more heavily on less volatile suppliers, even if it comes at the cost of forgoing more efficient ones. Chapter 3 builds on chapter 2 by relaxing the rational expectation assumption. It studies an agent-based model with quantity, price rigidities and decentralized labor and goods markets with search frictions. Firms make production decisions facing unquantifiable uncertainty about demand and unable to coordinate spontaneously on a Nash equilibrium. Inductive firms optimize over a set of forecasting strategies to best predict demand. Naive firms simply extrapolate from last period. The share of inductive firms is a key parameter that dramatically affects business cycle characteristics. A larger share decreases the persistence and volatility of GDP and unemployment, making the process that firms try to forecast memory-less and harder to predict. This leads to the paradox that firms trying to forecast demand individually end up making larger forecast errors in the aggregate. It also qualitatively affects the passthrough from output shocks to prices and wages.