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ISBN: (纸本)9787300164342

关键词： 洗钱犯罪   宏观经济学   宏观经济调控  

摘要： 伴随着毒品，走私等有组织犯罪规模的不断扩大和犯罪手段的日益现代化，洗钱犯罪也日益猖獗。何谓洗钱犯罪？洗钱犯罪是怎样形成的?洗钱犯罪的发展趋势如何？打击洗钱犯罪的意义何在？这些问题引起了国际社会前所未有的广泛关注，理论界也对此进行了热烈的讨论。已经有很多学者在洗钱犯罪的概念、成因、犯罪方法和预控方面作了大量研究，但是从宏观经济学的视角来探讨洗钱犯罪的预控研究尚属空白。通过宏观经济学中的IS-LM模型可以清晰看到洗钱犯罪对国家宏观调控的影响，如何利用宏观经济调控预防和控制洗钱犯罪应该是当今反洗钱研究的新方向。 从1997年至今，我国宏观经济学发展经历了两个阶段，第一阶段1997-2004年的积极财政政策，就是通过扩大财政支出，调整收入分配，使财政政策在启动经济增长、优化经济结构中发挥更直接、更有效的作用。在需求不振、经济增长乏力阶段，实施积极的财政政策，不需要中间传导过程，时滞短，对经济的拉动作用明显。第二阶段是2004年至今的稳健财政政策，核心是松紧适度，着力协调，放眼长远。具体来说就是要注重把握“控制赤字、调整结构、推进改革、增收节支”十六个字。宏观经济学也在不断创新，目前正在从宏观层面阶段发展到宏观层面与中观层面相结合的阶段。鉴于此，宏观调控的方向也在从总量调整转为局部调控。 可以说，在积极财政政策阶段，由于国家正在大面积促进经济发展，致使一些经济犯罪包括洗钱犯罪的大量产生，04年之后的国民经济稳健发展，在一定层面上控制了洗钱犯罪的扩张，以房地产宏观调控为例，2000年从减免税收，下降贷款利率等方面大力促进发地产也发展，导致大量洗钱者通过购买商品房进行洗钱，直到2010年9月，房产限购政策出台，才有效遏制了直接通过购买房产洗钱的犯罪数量。 随着本世纪中期以来国际毒品犯罪、走私犯罪及黑社会性质的组织犯罪的猖獗，洗钱犯罪在世界范围内已成为一种社会公害，越来越引起世界各国和国际组织的关注。为有效打击洗钱犯罪活动，遏制其进一步泛滥，各国国内立法和国际立法纷纷制订相关法律予以惩治。随着我国对外开放的进一步深入，与国际间的交流和合作的不断加强，洗钱犯罪在我国正逐步呈上升趋势。因此，研究和探讨洗钱犯罪产生的原因，提出其预防对策，对于我国进一步打击洗钱犯罪具有十分重要的意义。 反洗钱的力度加强，传统的洗钱方法越来越没有生存的空间，因此，为了规避现有的反洗钱措施，犯罪分子将洗钱活动从现实世界转向了虚拟空间，利用电子货币轻而易举地将犯罪所得转移到世界的任一角落，利用网络银行或者利用网上赌场进行更为隐秘的洗钱犯罪。另外，由于我国对洗钱范围的界定只限于上游犯罪，从而助长了赌博、组织卖淫、私分国有资产等犯罪行为，出现了“中国特色”的洗钱方法。针对这种高科技和中国特色的洗钱犯罪活动，我们必须改革现有的防范和惩治措施，通过立法、科技、金融、建立预防机制，特别是利用国家宏观经济调控等措施，以有效地打击和预防洗钱犯罪活动。 由于各国经济发展程度的差异，导致了发达国家和发展中国家在对待反洗钱问题的态度不一致。事实上，发展中国家对洗钱采取纵容的态度可能会获得短期的经济利益，但从长远来看，是得不偿失的，因为洗钱存在的潜在危害是巨大的。不仅掩盖了赃款的真实来源，切断了警方追查犯罪的线索，妨害了司法机关的正常活动，而且也影响了经济的正常有序发展及社会的安全稳定。因此，认为反洗钱可能会影响外商投资、经济发展的认识是片面的、短视的。有效地控制洗钱犯罪活动不是单纯地打击犯罪，更为重要的是保护金融体系的纯洁性，维护良好的社会秩序，创造和平和稳定的生活秩序。 当前，洗钱活动之猖獗，洗钱手段之高科技，给国家经济造成了巨大的损害。笔者认为，容忍这股势力继续蔓延的结局将是一场灾难，因此，进一步加强对洗钱活动的打击刻不容缓。本文就洗钱犯罪的方法及预控洗钱犯罪的对策进行了重点研究，期望能够对反洗钱工作提供借鉴和参考。

关键词： 宏观经济学   研究式教学   课题研究  

摘要： 课题研究式教学以来源于实践的真实问题为基础,通过学生的亲身体验培养,培养学生经济学分析能力和解决问题的能力。本文结合教学实际经验,系统介绍了宏观经济学教学应用课题研究式教学实施过程,并提出了需要注意的问题和解决措施。

摘要： Addressing many topics in macroeconomics—ranging from questions of optimal policy design to determining the effects of demographic change, globalization, and technological progress—requires a sound understanding of the nature of the risks that households face and the insurance opportunities available to hedge against those risks. This dissertation examines how the interaction of imperfect risk sharing and frictional markets can affect macroeconomic outcomes—from allocations to welfare to market dynamics. In chapter one, I analyze how information externalities in the labor market affect the efficiency of wealth accumulation and estate taxation. I develop a model of costly skill acquisition, labor market signaling, and wealth accumulation and bequests. When making hiring decisions, firms form beliefs about the skill level of each worker by looking at that worker's signal in addition to the proportion of skilled workers in the economy. This aggregate proportion is a public good, and workers exert sub-optimal effort to become skilled because they engage in informational free-riding. Wealthier workers expend even less effort on becoming skilled, and thus, informational free-riding gives rise to inefficient wealth accumulation. Under certain conditions, an increase in the estate tax rate can benefit some members of society, even absent any redistribution. In chapter two, I investigate how illiquidity in the housing and mortgage markets impacts the dynamics of housing, mortgage debt, and foreclosures. I develop a tractable model of the macroeconomy with idiosyncratic and aggregate risk, directed search in the housing market, and equilibrium mortgage default. I show that the dynamics of the model are consistent with U.S. housing market dynamics over the period 1975–2010. In particular, house prices, sales, residential investment, and investment are procyclical and volatile; foreclosures and average time to sell are countercyclical and volatile; and housing booms and busts a

ISBN: (纸本)9787511414359

摘要： This dissertation considers two distinct issues in macroeconomics. The first is the effect of tax changes on the level of productivity of an economy and the second concerns the implications of cross-national migration for long-run growth and welfare. In the first chapter, I analyze the effects of tax policy changes on US total factor productivity (TFP). Empirical estimates show that a 1 percent permanent exogenous rise in total taxes lowers TFP by up to 1.75 percent in the long run. The drop in output associated with the increase in taxes is between 2 and 3 percent. Thus the change in TFP explains most of the movement in output that follows a tax change. Individual income taxes have a strong and significant effect on TFP whereas corporate income taxes do not significantly affect TFP or most other macroeconomic variables. In the second chapter, I build a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to explain the dynamic macroeconomic effects of tax changes. The model has two key features: learning-by-doing at the worker level and endogenous TFP evolution whereby TFP growth depends on investment and human capital. When model parameters are chosen using microeconomic evidence, the response of TFP to tax changes from model is substantially less elastic than in the data. I argue that this gap between model and data shows the inadequacy of existing business cycle and growth models to explain the dynamic response of economy to tax changes. In the third chapter, I investigate the cost and benefit of reversing the brain drain from Pakistan by calling back Pakistani expatriates from the USA. I employ a life cycle model with 2 countries, one poor and one rich, with endogenous migration and return migration decisions from and to the poor country. Every worker that is called back to work in Poor must be given high enough compensation so that he is indifferent between working in the two countries. This is the cost of bringing a worker back. The benefit is the increase in output

摘要： This dissertation analyzes the interaction of firm level heterogeneity and selection. This selection can encompass either the survival of firms in the market, or their participation in international trade. In the first part I concentrate on the question of how large the aggregate productivity losses from the misallocation of resources across firms are. If firm exit is endogenous, micro-frictions can induce extensive margin misallocation: inefficient firms continue to survive (Zombies) and efficient firms are forced to exit (Shadows). I develop and estimate a fully specified model with plant-level micro-data to quantify extensive margin misallocation. This method allows me to identify Zombie firms, estimate the efficiency distribution of Shadow firms and calculate aggregate Total Factor Productivity (TFP) gains when Zombies are replaced by Shadows. Estimates for Indonesia show that extensive margin misallocation can increase aggregate TFP losses from micro-distortions by over 40%. Compared to existing estimates aggregate TFP losses from micro-distortions are 50-100% higher. In the second part of the dissertation I trace out the implications of a simplified version of the framework I developed in the first part to questions of international trade. The cross-country comparisions in measured micro-distortions suggest that differences in firm heterogeneity could be potentially important to explain aggregate TFP and therefore also trade patterns. I consequently develop a tractable multi-country general equilibrium model of such differences in firm level heterogeneity across countries. I show how the model naturally links measured trade frictions to national firm-efficiency distributions and endogenously generates asymmetries in trade flows in the absence of asymmetric trade frictions. The model is able to generate key stylized facts, specifically the absence of a strong negative relationsship of firm-size dispersions and internal trade shares as predicted by the standard

ISBN: (纸本)9787300150291

关键词： 中信出版社   现实世界   产业   大前研一   经济波动   数字设计   宏观经济学   大经济学   安德森   制造业   加工工业   快速成型技术  

摘要： 《创客》作者:(美)安德森著,萧潇译出版社:中信出版社定价:45.00元安德森预测,在接下来的十年里,人们会将网络的智慧用于现实世界之中。未来不仅属于建立在虚拟原则之上的网络公司,也属于那些深深扎根于现实世界的产业。本书讨论了全球最关注的领域——制造业。安德森惊人地预测,随着数字设计与快速成型技术赋予每个人发明的能力,"创客"一代使用互联网的创新模式,必将成为下一次全球经济大潮的弄潮儿。

关键词： 宏观经济学反思   金融部门   全球经济一体化   国民核算体系改革  

摘要： 在全球金融危机以后，学者们对过去30年宏观经济学的发展进行了反思，这些反思可以给中国的宏观经济发展和政策制定提供一定借鉴意义，同时也利于我们判断西方主流学界今后的发展方向。我们把这些反思按照三个方面进行了归纳，即认为：（1）在宏观经济模型中应该更加强调金融部门的作用；（2）应该更加重视全球经济一体化的宏观经济后果的研究；（3）应该重视国民经济核算体系的发展以使之与经济发展现实相适应。