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关键词： 宏观经济学   研究性学习   方法探究  

摘要： 为使得我国宏观经济教学更加适应社会,贴近社会经济实际情况,提高宏观经济教学质量,就需要对我国宏观经济教学模式进行改革,采用研究性学习模式,理论联系实际,培养学生的问题探究能力,认识、分析、解决问题的能力,不断提升学生的创新思维,加强宏观经济管理人才的培养工作。本文针对我国宏观经济教学中存在的问题,对宏观经济中采用研究性学习的模式进行了简要的探讨,并提出了具体的研究性学习方法,以期为将来我国宏观经济教学提供参考、借鉴。

摘要： This dissertation consists of two studies on International finance and macroeconomics. Each study addresses different topics. The first study exploits Speculators' positions in futures markets to forecast exchange rates. The forecasting model we propose combines Engel and Hamilton's (1990) point that exchange rates follow long swings with Evans and Lyons' (2004) finding that privately available information about market participants' order flow can predict exchange rates over the short-run. We extract speculators' private information by fitting a microfounded autoregressive Markov regime switching model to the speculators'net positions data in the Commitment-of-Traders report and forecasting the speculators' mode of accumulation. We then use this predicted mode to form both directional and point exchange rate forecasts for the six most traded currency pairs. Over forecasting horizons ranging from 6 to 12 months, we evaluate the performance of our forecasts vis-à-vis the random walk. The results indicate that our forecasts are significantly better than those from random walk models for most currencies, except the Swiss Franc. The second study investigates on the sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging economies. I compare the performance of the Aguiar and Gopinath (2007) model with that of the encompassing model which combines shocks to trend growth with interest rate shocks and financial frictions. Exploiting the recent developments in the theory and implementation of Bayesian methods, I estimate two models using Korea's data over the same sample period as in Aguiar and Gopinath (2007), and Chang and Fernandez (2010). In addition, I explore the role of the transitional dynamics in the estimation results. My findings are contrary to those from existing studies. The magnitude of permanent shocks is much larger than that of transitory shocks and the frictionless stochastic trend model delivers closer a match to the moments calculated from the data.

关键词： 宏观经济学   教材  

ISBN: (数字)9787543223837 ISBN: (纸本)9787543223837

摘要： 本书涵盖了微观经济学的基本原理和主要理论，以通俗易懂的文字、合理的结构层次，引领初学者在庞杂的西方经济学理论体系中了解掌握最基本最重要的知识点。

摘要： This dissertation is a collection of three essays on macroeconomics, examining the sources of business cycles. In particular, we are interested in understanding how shocks propagate over the business cycle in both closed economy and open economy settings. The common approach we take in these chapters is to use both theory and data in a structural estimation based on a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. In the first chapter, motivated by the correlation of business cycles across countries, we provide a new empirical evidence about the role of common shocks in business cycles for small open economies. Specifically, we conduct a structural estimation of a small open economy real business cycle model featuring a realistic debt adjustment cost and common shocks. Using a novel dataset for 17 small developed and developing countries between 1900 and 2006, we find that common shocks are a primary source of business cycles, explaining nearly 50\% of the output fluctuations over the last 100 years in small open economies. The estimated common shocks capture important historical episodes such as the Great depression, the two World Wars and the two oil price shocks. Moreover, these common shocks are important for not only small developed countries but also developing countries. We point out the importance of our structural approach in identifying the sizable role of both productivity and other common shocks such as interest rate premium shocks. The reduced form dynamic factor model approach in the previous literature, which often assumes one type of common component, would predict only a third of the contribution estimated in the structural model. In the second chapter, we focus on the transmission from one country to another through international trade. First, we argue that while we observe substantial business cycle correlation across countries, especially among developed economies, most existing models are not able to generate strong transmission of shocks endogen

关键词： 宏观经济学  

ISBN: (纸本)9787564220013

摘要： 本书内容包括：索洛增长模型；无限期模型与世代交叠模型；内生增长；跨国收入差距；实际经济周期理论；名义刚性；动态随机一般均衡周期模型；消费；投资等。

关键词： 宏观经济学   数学理论   应用情况  

摘要： 根据调查研究显示,有很多的研究宏观经济学的专业人士在宏观经济学中应用的十分广泛的数学理论上掌握的不是很好,还存在着很多的问题,而这些问题,在很大的程度上,能够直接影响到对于宏观经济学的研究。所以,为了能够让专业的宏观经济学的研究人员重视起对于数学理论的应用,提高对于数学理论应用的把握程度,本文,就针对当前的数学理论在宏观经济学中的应用情况做出一个简单的分析和说明,希望能够起到一定的借鉴作用。

关键词： 研讨式教学   教师   角色  

摘要： 研讨式教学法的目的是让学生在解决问题的过程中学会如何解决问题,从"学会"到"会学"。本文将研讨式教学法应用于独立学院的宏观经济学教学中,分析每个阶段中教师所起的作用,最终总结出研讨式教学中教师所担任的角色。

摘要： My dissertation focuses on the macroeconomics of emerging and developing nations. This group of economies is characterized by significant differences in terms of institutional quality, financial development, as well as other cultural, social, political parameters. In turn, these structural heterogeneities exert considerable influence on their domestic economic environment, specifically impacting key macroeconomic indicators such as output, investment, consumption, foreign capital flows, exchange rates etc. The first essay is an empirical and theoretical investigation of Business Cycles and Macroeconomic Dynamics in post-independence India. Using annual time series data, we document key business cycle properties of the Indian economy. Output, consumption and investment are more volatile in India compared to its developed country counterparts. As in developed countries, consumption is less volatile and investment is more volatile than output in the Indian data. In contrast, investment is not highly correlated with output in India. Moreover, India's economic landscape has undergone significant changes, both in terms of the absolute level and cyclical fluctuations, across the planning horizon. The presence of structural break is reported for major macroeconomic variables when we decompose the data into pre- and post-reform categories. We also test whether a standard real business cycle (closed economy) model with India-specific parameters can replicate the stylized features of the business cycle. The model includes a tax on capital income which acts as a disincentive for future investment, and the results indicate that a high volatility of the tax shock is required to produce the low investment output correlation. The model performs reasonably well in matching the correlation dynamics observed in the data. In the second essay, I examine Foreign Reserve accumulation in Developing Countries through the lens of Institutional Quality and Financial Development. I investigate

关键词： 出版时间   生存   出版社   文化机构   动物精神   大经济学   宏观经济学   空间观测技术   核心话题   哲学思潮   宋元明清   政治妥协   人类   行星   地球  

摘要： 《继续生存10万年:人类能否做到?》(Surviving 1000 Centuries:Can We Do It?)作者:Roger-Maurice Bonnet,Lodewijk Woltjer出版社:Springer Praxis Books出版时间:2008年10月内容简介人类的未来与地球发展息息相关。人类是否能继续生存10万年?本书细致地分析了天体威胁、自然灾害、气候变化、能量和能源等方面的重要问题,理清了人类发展所面临危险、挑战和威胁;分析了关键的能源、矿藏、水和粮食等问题;强调了主动管理上述资源的重要性;明确了基于空间观测技术、加强国际合作、共同管理地球未来的重要性与可行

摘要： 一诺贝尔经济学奖所覆盖的宏观经济学领域自1969年开始,诺贝尔经济学奖已有43年的历史,获奖贡献涉及宏观经济学、微观经济学以及(新的)经济分析方法三大领域。仅从宏观经济学领域来看,诺贝尔经济学奖涵盖了国民收入核算、消费理论、货币理论、经济增长与发展、国际经济与贸易、失业和