关键词： 气候变化   影响与适应   农业系统   CO2  

摘要： 通过对政府间气候变化专门委员会第二工作组(IPCC AR5 WGII)的报告《气候变化2014:影响、适应和脆弱性》有关涉农章节的解读,分析有助于国内外农业气象学科发展的科学问题,并提出进一步研究的优先领域。IPCC认为,如果不考虑适应,局地温度比20世纪晚期升高2℃或更多,对热带和温带地区主要作物产量(小麦、水稻和玉米)都将产生负面影响。预计的影响随作物、区域和适应情景而不同。约10%的研究结果预测2030-2049年比20世纪晚期可能增产10%,也有10%的研究结果则预测减产25%以上。对比国内有关气候变化对农业影响评估的研究,反映的差距主要集中在:(1)农业系统对气候变化敏感程度和脆弱性的定量评估能力较弱;(2)难以识别气候对农业的直接和间接影响程度;(3)综合研究不够,还不能定量分析各种非气候因素的贡献;(4)适应对策实例和经验总结不够,有关的成本效益分析不够。建议本学科优先在以下领域进一步深入研究:(1)更新并完善粮食生产影响模型,建立区域和全球尺度的、可靠的、综合的粮食系统模型;(2)进一步认识CO2与臭氧对作物生长的综合影响程度,高温和低温对作物的影响,以及干旱和洪涝的生理阈值;(3)开展与各种变暖情景有关的粮食生产实验和模拟,包括作物、家畜、渔业、水果和蔬菜等生产要素以及加工、分配及零售和消费模式等非生产要素的气候影响和适应。

关键词： 黑河市   气候变化   趋势   影响  

摘要： 以黑河气象观测站观测资料为基础,研究1960年至2009年半个世纪时间内,黑河市主要气象要素气温和降水的变化。经研究黑河市气温升高趋势明显,降水呈阶段性变化;这种变化规律对黑河的环境发展有一定的影响,气温的升高带来极端天气出现的频率增多,自然灾害有频繁加重的趋势,旱灾、水灾的这种趋势最明显,农业影响显著。

关键词： climate change   Crocus sativus   Kashmir   Saffron   stress  

摘要： Kashmir Valley is a major saffron (Crocus sativus Kashmirianus) growing area of the world, second only to Iran in terms of production. In Kashmir, saffron is grown on uplands (termed in the local language as "Karewas"), which are lacustrine deposits located at an altitude of 1585 to 1677 m above mean sea level (amsl), under temperate climatic conditions. Kashmir, despite being one of the oldest historical saffron-producing areas, faces a rapid decline of saffron industry. Among many other factors responsible for decline of saffron industry the preponderance of erratic rainfalls and drought-like situation have become major challenges imposed by climate change. Saffron has a limited coverage area as it is grown as a 'niche crop' and is a recognized "geographical indication," growing under a narrow microclimatic condition. As such it has become a victim of climate change effects, which has the potential of jeopardizing the livelihood of thousands of farmers and traders associated with it. The paper discusses the potential and actual impact of climate change process on saffron cultivation in Kashmir;and the biotechnological measures to address these issues.

关键词： biochar   carbon policy   biochar compound fertilizers  

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关键词： Agriculture   Food security   Risks   Environmental degradation   Climate change   Pests and diseases  

摘要： Global food security is one of the most pressing issues for humanity, and agricultural production is critical for achieving this. The existing analyses of specific threats to agricultural food production seldom bring out the contrasts associated with different levels of economic development and different climatic zones. We therefore investigated the same biophysical threats in three modelled types of countries with different economic and climatic conditions. The threats analysed were environmental degradation, climate change and diseases and pests of animals and plants. These threats were analysed with a methodology enabling the associated risks to be compared. The timeframe was 2012-2050 and the analysis was based on three underlying assumptions for 2050: the world population will have increased to 9 billion people, there will be a larger middle class in the world and climate change will be causing more extreme weather events, higher temperatures and altered precipitation. It is suggested that the risks, presented by the biophysical threats analysed, differ among the three modelled types of countries and that climate zone, public stewardship and economic strength are major determinants of these differences. These determinants are far from evenly spread among the world's major food producers, which implies that diversification of risk monitoring and international assessment of agricultural production is critical for assuring global food security in 2050.

关键词： Policy development   Climate change adaptation   Agriculture   Science and policy interface   Vertical and horizontal collaboration   Participation  

摘要： This paper explores the lessons learned by leaders in agricultural adaptation planning in order to assist other jurisdictions to develop adaptation strategies. It seeks to identify effective institutional, participatory and collaborative processes involved in designing agricultural adaptation strategies at the national and sub-national levels in Germany, Finland, the United Kingdom, the United States and Canada. Its methodology is based on review of agricultural adaptation policy documents, research initiatives, stakeholder engagement processes, and cross-sectoral collaborations as well as interviews with key informants such as leaders and actors in adaptation planning. The gathered data show that early adapters have an improved regional and national understanding of climatic impacts, and of the risks to agriculture before the initiation of the planning process. The results indicate that the interplay between bottom-up and top-down initiatives has been crucial in the development of adaptation strategies. The former has provided rich and robust participation in designing, implementing and monitoring adaptations, while the latter was important for prioritizing and legitimizing the development of strategy. It also provided access to high-level decision makers and funding. The results of the study suggest that fostering cross-sectoral collaborations-especially by focusing on broader questions such as the role of agriculture in society-has become an important part of adaptation planning. Finally, our results also stress that adaptation planning in agriculture could be enhanced by skills development and mutual learning across stakeholder groups, research and policy-makers, and through the ongoing interactive development of institutional capabilities.

关键词： agricultural productivity   climate change   spatial econometrics   sample selection   generalised method of moments estimation  

摘要： Using spatially explicit data, we estimate a cereal yield response function using a recently developed estimator for spatial error models when endogenous sample selection is of concern. Our results suggest that yields across Sub-Saharan Africa will decline with projected climatic changes, and that failing to control for sample selection and spatially correlated errors leads to biased estimates of some climate impacts. We also find evidence that the estimated elasticities are essentially no different from those of simpler models ignoring those features in the data. Simulation experiments indicate the extent to which improvements in irrigation can ameliorate the effects of climate change.

关键词： CLIMATIC changes   VEGETATION & climate   AGRICULTURE -- Research   LAKES   RESEARCH   SEDIMENTS (Geology)  

摘要： Pollen record derived from the sediment core of Lake Li-yu Tan, central Taiwan, provides valuable information of vegetation history, climate change, and agricultural activity. Subtropical evergreen forests dominated the uplands surrounding this lake from 2.6 ka BP, indicating the climate was warm. However, the appearance of warm-temperate forest vegetation suggests two relatively cool periods, prior to 23 ka BP and between 1.6 and 12 ka BP. Based on the presence of cultivated pollen, including Poaceae (>40 mu m), Lagerstroemia, and Melia, agricultural activity was expansive between 1.6 and 1.2 ka BP and from 0.6 ka BP. This study also provides the first charcoal record in Taiwan. Natural fires occurred frequently during the interval 2.6 to 1.7 ka BP, as shown by continuous and stable charcoal influxes. Decline in charcoal influxes elucidates that fires decreased during the interval 1.7 to 1.6 ka BP. Fire events resulting from agricultural activity occurred between 1.6 and 1.2 ka BP. The high fluctuation of charcoal influxes during this period also indicates charcoal production by humans, presumably near the lake, based on the appearance of large charcoal particles (>500 mu m). Fires decreased gradually from 1.2 ka BP. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved.

关键词： climate change adaptation   model intercomparison   integrated assessment   agricultural productivity  

摘要： Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments in yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's representative concentration pathway with end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m(2). The mean biophysical yield effect with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17% reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11%, increase area of major crops by 11%, and reduce consumption by 3%. Agricultural production, crop-land area, trade, and prices show the greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences include model structure and specification;in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change.

关键词： food security   AgMIP   ISI-MIP   climate impacts   agriculture  

摘要： Here we present the results from an intercomparison of multiple global gridded crop models (GGCMs) within the framework of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project and the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. Results indicate strong negative effects of climate change, especially at higher levels of warming and at low latitudes;models that include explicit nitrogen stress project more severe impacts. Across seven GGCMs, five global climate models, and four representative concentration pathways, model agreement on direction of yield changes is found in many major agricultural regions at both low and high latitudes;however, reducing uncertainty in sign of response in mid-latitude regions remains a challenge. Uncertainties related to the representation of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and high temperature effects demonstrated here show that further research is urgently needed to better understand effects of climate change on agricultural production and to devise targeted adaptation strategies.