关键词： 建平县   农业气象   灾害   对策  

摘要： 在过去的10余年中,气候变化呈现出了全球变暖的基本态势,作为全球化的关注焦点气候变化问题受到了科学领域以及各国家政府的密切重视。以极端天气频繁出现为主要特征的全球气候状况在农业方面也产生了一定的影响,文章以全球气候现状的分析为切入点,结合辽宁省建平县的现实情况,对农业气象灾害进行了简要的分类并且加以讨论。重点介绍了气候变化引发的一系列问题为建平县农业气象灾害与病虫害所带来的正、负面作用,气候变化对建平县的负面影响主要包括破坏农业稳定发展以及病虫害严峻化两个方面的内容。

关键词： 良种推广   适应性投入   农业总产值   气候变化   政策工具  

摘要： 基于2001—2012年新疆于田县农业生产适应性资金投入的时间序列数据和社会调查数据,运用向量协整和误差修正模型,借助"有向无环图"(DAG)方法,研究良种推广制度、农田节水、禁牧及家畜圈养等三类主要适应性资金投入对地区农业总产值变动的同期影响,并考察政策工具在传导过程中的有效性及动态关系。研究结果表明,农田节水和良种推广制度在于田地区适应性政策传导中发挥着主导作用,但良种推广制度被动地适应于农田节水政策,使得良种推广制度自身仍存在较大政策实施空间。与此同时,禁牧及家畜圈养资金投入对农业总产值的影响具有较强的短期性和外生性。加大农业领域适应性资金投入有助于提高干旱区应对各种极端自然灾害和气候变化适应能力,提高农业生产水平。中央和地方政府需通过增加社会资本的投入、加强地区水利建设、提高农户教育水平等方式强化政策对地区农业经济的影响。

关键词： 热能   水分   光能   生长期   气象灾害  

摘要： 本文利用松江气象观测站1955—2010年的气候资料,对松江地区热能、水分、光能资源和极端天气事件的气候特征及对农业的影响进行了分析,同时提出了农业适应对策。结果表明:(1)年均和季均气温、有效积温和生长期长度均呈上升趋势,表明松江地区热能资源增加。年平均气温存在12~16a的年代际变化周期,≥10℃的初日提前,平均为3月29日,终日延迟,平均为11月23日,生长期延长,平均为238d。(2)年降水呈波动增加趋势,夏、冬季降水呈增多趋势,而春、秋季为减少趋势;生长期降水量整体呈减少趋势,年降水总量主要出现8~10a的年际尺度振荡周期;松江区年降水日数及作物生长期降水日数呈减少趋势,春、秋季降水日数减少,夏、冬季降水日数则增多,中雨日数和暴雨日数呈增多趋势,其中以暴雨日数增加最为明显。(3)松江区年平均及作物生长期日照时数、年日照百分率都呈减少趋势,表明光能资源减少。(4)松江区的主要气象灾害有台风、暴雨、大风、雷暴、高温、低温冻害和连阴雨,各种气象灾害在不同时段的影响不同,集中出现在5—10月,以雷暴最为频繁。

关键词： 朝代更替及盛世   气候变化影响   农业丰歉  

摘要： 气候变化及其影响研究是当前国际社会普遍关注的全球性问题。从粮食安全角度研究中国历史时期气候变化对朝代盛世及更替的影响,有助于从过程和机理的角度客观评价气候变化在朝代兴衰更替过程中的作用,从也可为深入认识未来气候变化的影响提供历史案例。本文首先界定了210 BC—960 AD(西汉至五代)期间中国社会的朝代更替及盛世时期,并以重建的温度序列和农业丰歉序列为据,研究了西汉至五代时期朝代更替及盛世与气候变化和农业丰歉的对应关系。西汉至五代,朝代更替多发生在冷期/寒冷阶段或者气候由暖转冷,农业收成相对歉收;朝代盛世多发生在暖期/温暖阶段和气候由冷转暖的位相上,农业收成相对丰收。从分裂到统一的朝代更替往往出现在百年尺度冷期末暖期初,气候由冷转暖、农业由歉转丰为乱世的结束提供了有利的气候条件和物质基础。而治世的结束、统一王朝的分裂则往往出现于百年际尺度的气候由暖转冷和农业由丰转歉。百年尺度及以上的气候冷暖交替和农业丰歉波动,对应着治世与乱世的更替。朝代治乱随气候变化的交替,一定程度上揭示出随气候变化的社会敏感时段,往往出现在由暖转冷的气候波动阶段以及百年际尺度上的气候由暖转冷时期。

关键词： 农业生产   气候变化   生产对象   畜牧业生产   气候条件   全球变暖   一年三熟   农牧交错带   牧区畜牧业   热量资源  

摘要： 一、农业生产需要适宜的气候条件 通常情况下,农业生产依据生产对象分为畜牧业、种植业和林业等。进行农业生产要求因地制宜、因时制宜、不违农时。动植物的生长发育有其自身规律,并受自然因素的影响。自然因素又随着季节而改变,且有一定的周期。农业生产活动都与季节有关,必须按季节顺序来安排。农业生产的对象是动植物，需要热量、光照、水、地形和土壤等自然条件。不同的生物，其生长发育要求的自然条件也不同。如，我国农业生产是一个变化的、复杂的产业，从业人多、地广；耕地从热带一年三熟集约经营的稻田，到温带干旱气候下受生长季短和降雨量少而多变条件限制的旱地都有，然而被认为可以用于持续畜牧业生产的大部分草地的载畜量却很低。

关键词： El Nino(ENSO)and Its Relationship with the Agricultural Pests   Climate Variability and Its Effect on Agricultural Pests   Pests   Plant Health   Climate Change  

摘要： The present paper reviewed the researches of how they have affected agricultural pests in the territory of Mexico. It emphasizes that traditional climate models are not “predict” non-linear systems and are necessary to resort to the construction of scenarios for study. Some climate change models applied to Mexico used for this purpose obtained significant results. It showed that to better understand the ecology of pests and their hosts, it is necessary to further research the correlations between them and improve climate modeling and its consequences, to prioritize risks and improve the reliability of predictions and scenarios in the future.

关键词： 气候变化   农业   影响及对策   SPSS  

摘要： 利用SPSS软件对太原市气温、降水量和日照进行分析,制作趋势图和5阶多项式拟合曲线图,指出太原市气候变化的主要特点,研究气候变化对太原市农业产生的影响,针对其不利影响提出应对策略,为适应和降低气候变化对农业的影响提供科学依据。

关键词： water supply   water rights   climate change   Prior Appropriation Doctrine  

摘要： We conduct a hedonic analysis to estimate the response of agricultural land use to water supply information under the Prior Appropriation Doctrine by using Idaho as a case study. Our analysis includes long-term climate (weather) trends and water supply conditions as well as seasonal water supply forecasts. A farm-level panel data set, which accounts for the priority effects of water rights and controls for diversified crop mixes and rotation practices, is used. Our results indicate that farmers respond to the long-term surface and ground water conditions as well as to the seasonal water supply variations. Climate change-induced variations in climate and water supply conditions could lead to substantial damages to irrigated agriculture. We project substantial losses (up to 32%) of the average crop revenue for major agricultural areas under future climate scenarios in Idaho. Finally, farmers demonstrate significantly varied responses given their water rights priorities, which imply that the distributional impact of climate change is sensitive to institutions such as the Prior Appropriation Doctrine.

关键词： Farm services   livelihood   climate change   forestation   Kaghan valley  

摘要： The mountainous areas are generally considered among the least developed and fragile regions. Climate change has exacerbated the effect on livelihood of the mountainous areas, particularly small farmers who are striving hard to adopt the farming practices in accordance with the climate change. Agricultural advisory service in the mountainous areas has always been challenge for the extension workers especially in context of climate change. This paper examined the role of agricultural extension in adaptation to climate change in Kaghan valley of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province of Pakistan. Both qualitative and quantitative methods were used for the purpose of data collection. The paper argues that agri. extension department can play a crucial role by creating awareness regarding adaption of best practices regarding climate change, deforestation and planting of trees. There is also need of launching campaign to educate the farmers and to build their resilience to cope with the negative effects of climate change.

关键词： agriculture   climate change   adaptation   transformational change   uncertainty   robust adaptation   agricultural systems  

摘要： Climate change might impact crop yields considerably and anticipated transformations of agricultural systems are needed in the coming decades to sustain affordable food provision. However, decision-making on transformational shifts in agricultural systems is plagued by uncertainties concerning the nature and geography of climate change, its impacts, and adequate responses. Locking agricultural systems into inadequate transformations costly to adjust is a significant risk and this acts as an incentive to delay action. It is crucial to gain insight into how much transformation is required from agricultural systems, how robust such strategies are, and how we can defuse the associated challenge for decision-making. While implementing a definition related to large changes in resource use into a global impact assessment modelling framework, we find transformational adaptations to be required of agricultural systems in most regions by 2050s in order to cope with climate change. However, these transformations widely differ across climate change scenarios: uncertainties in large-scale development of irrigation span in all continents from 2030s on, and affect two-thirds of regions by 2050s. Meanwhile, significant but uncertain reduction of major agricultural areas affects the Northern Hemisphere's temperate latitudes, while increases to non-agricultural zones could be large but uncertain in one-third of regions. To help reducing the associated challenge for decision-making, we propose a methodology exploring which, when, where and why transformations could be required and uncertain, by means of scenario analysis.