关键词： climate change   adaptation   risk   Ethiopia  

摘要： In this paper, after a review of the evolution of the literature on climate change economics in agriculture, I present some evidence of the impact of different moments of the distribution of rainfall on farmers risk aversion. It is found that while more rainfall is negatively associated with the probability of observing risk aversion, rainfall variability is positively correlated. This result highlights an important behavioural dimension of climatic factors.

关键词： Organic farming   Global warming   Rodale Institute (Philadelphia, Pa.)  

摘要： The article reports that Kutztown, Pennsylvania-based agricultural research organization Rodale Institute (RI) published a white paper, 'Regenerative Organic Agriculture and Climate Change: A Down-To-Earth Solution to Global Warming,' in April 2014.

关键词： Agriculture   Climate-change adaptation   Climate-change impacts   Environmental economics   Environment   general   Climate Change   Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts   Environmental Law/Policy/Ecojustice  

摘要： Projecting the impacts of climate change on agriculture requires knowing or assuming how farmers will adapt. However, empirical estimates of the effectiveness of this private adaptation are scarce and the sensitivity of impact assessments to adaptation assumptions is not well understood(1,2). Here we assess the potential effectiveness of private farmer adaptation in Europe by jointly estimating both short-run and long-run response functions using time-series and cross-sectional variation in subnational yield and profit data. The difference between the impacts of climate change projected using the short-run (limited adaptation) and long-run (substantial adaptation) response curves can be interpreted as the private adaptation potential. We find high adaptation potential for maize to future warming but large negative effects and only limited adaptation potential for wheat and barley. Overall, agricultural profits could increase slightly under climate change if farmers adapt but could decrease in many areas if there is no adaptation. Decomposing the variance in 2040 projected yields and farm profits using an ensemble of 13 climate model runs, we find that the rate at which farmers will adapt to rising temperatures is an important source of uncertainty.

关键词： 气候变化   土库曼斯坦   气象要素   农业生产  

摘要： 基于土库曼斯坦Ashgabat,Bairam-ali,Chardzhou 3个气象站点多年月均气温、降水、日照时间等数据,得出土库曼斯坦近30a的气候变化特征,并综合分析气温、降水、日照时间等要素与农作物产量的相关性,气候变化对农业的影响.结果表明,在全球气候变化背景下,30a气温上升趋势明显,平均气温以0.52℃/10a的速率在降低,平均降水以24.1mm/10a的速率在减少;气候更加干旱、少雨,农业生态环境及草场退化,农作物产量、牲畜数不稳定.可为土库曼斯坦适应气候变化,科学调整农业布局,合理配置农牧业所用的水资源,防治农业生态系统的失衡,提高农业经济、农业区建设提供重要参考.

关键词： 气候变化   可计算一般均衡模型   粮食生产   粮食消费   经济增长  

摘要： 为了研究气候变化影响的玉米单产对中国粮食产量及社会经济部门的影响,使用可计算一般均衡模型,将考虑CO2肥效作用的气候变化影响的玉米单产变化作为政策模拟方案,通过构建的基期来模拟对中国玉米生产、消费的影响。模拟结果显示:(1)到2050年,在高排放的A2情景下,玉米的总产出为235813kt,总需求合计为270800 kt,在中低排放的B2情景下,玉米的总产出为242418 kt,总需求合计为238435 kt,在A2情景下供不应求,而在B2情景下,供给大于需求。(2)气候变化对中国宏观经济和部门经济产生有利影响,实际工资、实际GDP、投资、家庭消费、出口等宏观指标相比于基期都有所上升。从总体上来说,无论是A2还是B2情景下,都导致玉米供给增加和进口减少,增加的供给量大于需求。因此,考虑CO2肥效的作用,会增强供给的保障,有利于维护中国的粮食安全。

关键词： 气候变化   农业生产   敏感性   适应性   脆弱性  

摘要： 本文利用层次分析法构建了农业生产对气候变化的脆弱性综合评价指标体系,实证分析了中国各省区的脆弱性程度,结果表明:全国一半的省区对气候变化表现为中度以上的脆弱性,主要分布在西部和华北地区。针对各省区脆弱性成因的不同,应分别采取不同的对策。

关键词： 春季降水   变化特征   农业影响  

摘要： 利用辽宁省朝阳地区7个气象站1961—2012年4—5月的逐日降水资料,运用气候统计学方法,分析了该地区的春季降水变化规律,并结合当地农业环境提出了防灾减灾应对措施。结果表明,自1961年以来,该地区春季透雨出现时间气候频率具有明显的区域性差别;无透雨频率最高的是建平气象站和凌源气象站,位居全省之首;2001—2012年透雨日期呈偏早趋势最显著的是朝阳气象站和喀左气象站;透雨量气候均值具有明显的地域性差别,除老建平气象站外,其余气象站均呈现增多趋势。春季降水发生异常气候事件具有明显地域分布差别,频率最高的是凌源气象站;降水气候变化最明显的是建平气象站和凌源气象站。

关键词： 平顶山市   气候变化   农业生产  

摘要： 农业作为气候变化中最为脆弱与敏感的领域之一,直接受到气候变化及气象要素的制约。在全球变暖的背景下,平顶山市的气候发生了一定程度的变化,对当地的农业生产及经济发展造成了极大的影响。基于此,通过分析平顶山市近50 a的气象资料,指出该地区气候变化的特点,并研究了平顶山市气候变化对农业生产的影响及应对措施,以期为平顶山市的农业生产及防灾减灾工作提供科学的依据。

关键词： climate change   innovation   agriculture   adaptation   Indo-Gangetic Plains   South Asia  

摘要： Despite growing scientific consensus that agriculture is affected by climate change and variability, there is still limited knowledge on how agricultural systems respond to climate risks under different circumstances. Drawing on three case studies conducted in the Indo-Gangetic Plains, covering Nepal, Bangladesh, and the Indian state of Punjab, this article analyzes agricultural adaptation practices to climate change. In particular, we examine how farmers and other agricultural actors understand and respond to climate change. We identify a variety of adaptation practices related to changes in cropping system, technological innovations, and institutional changes. We also explore key challenges related to such emerging adaptive innovation processes in the region.

关键词： Water Supply   Water Rights   Climate Change   Prior Appropriation Doctrine  

摘要： Water supply is important to agriculture and other consumptive uses in the arid and semiarid climate zones, but it has become increasingly uncertain under a changing climate. More important, how agricultural output will be affected may depend on how water resources are allocated based on the dominant sharing rule, according to Xu et al. , who conducted a case study in Idaho.