关键词： 气候变化   农业生产   影响  

摘要： 进入21世纪后,全球气候呈现出变暖的趋势,这对我国农业生产带来了极大的影响。基于此,重点分析了气候变化对农业生产所带来的影响,并提出相应的应对措施。

关键词： Climate change   Spain   Desertification   Economic impacts   Agriculture   Common agricultural policy  

摘要： Climate change effects are becoming evident worldwide, but some water scarce regions present higher vulnerability. Spain, located in the Mediterranean region, is expected for instance to be highly vulnerable given its unbalanced distribution between water resources availability and existing demands. This article presents an introduction to the main threats of climate change mainly on water resources, but it also assesses effects in interlinked areas such as agriculture, soil and land management. Contents focus on measures and initiatives promoted by the central government and address efforts to establish multi-sectoral coordinating bodies, specific adaptation plans and measures for the different sectors. The article highlights some political aspects, such as the complexity of involved competent authorities in water and land management, the need to strengthen public participation and the conflicts arising from the defence of regional interests. It also makes a link to current EU policies;summarises foreseeable problems derived from climate change effects, and provides some recommendations in the different areas covered. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

关键词： 气候变化   食品安全   安全威胁   国家   农业   环境风险   宗教冲突   风险分析  

摘要： 据《悉尼先驱晨报》报道，英国知名风险分析机构梅普尔克罗夫特公司在其年度《气候变化与环境风险地图》中称，气候变化和食品安全正使全球风险陡增，在未来30年内有32个农业国家将面临冲突或社会动荡的“极端风险”，此外，食品短缺和价格飞涨将会加剧政治、种族、阶层和宗教冲突。

关键词： 气候变化   农业节水   技术与模式  

摘要： 建立与气候变化相适应的农业节水技术,可以通过较小的投入获得较大的收益与回报,而且能在一定的程度上有效缓解因水资源短缺而带来的农业生产矛盾,实现粮食的增产与农民的增收。基于此,通过论述气候变化对农业生产带来的影响,简要探讨与气候变化相适应的农业节水技术与模式的有效构建途径。

关键词： 华北平原   气候变化   灌溉需水   干旱易发区  

摘要： 以华北平原为研究区,选取冬小麦和夏玉米作为典型作物,采用作物系数法并依据预估的气候情景计算典型作物的净灌溉需水量,分析不同气温和降水变化幅度下冬小麦和夏玉米需水过程和需水总量。同时,结合气象干旱和需水异常程度划分了干旱易发区。所得成果可供相关研究人员参考。

关键词： Water management   Rainfall   Economics   Climate   Climate change   Water resources   Adaptation   Governments   Modelling   Surface water resources   Rainfall variability   Numerical simulations   Regression models   Geographic Information Systems (GIS)   Regional climate models   Climatic change influences on water resources   Weather   Fruits   Stakeholders   Surface water   Fats and oils   Simulation   Adaptability   Geographic information systems   Yield   Climates   Evolution   Geographical Information Systems   Water Resources   Olea   Europe   Climate change   Geographic information systems (GIS)   Ensembles   Agriculture   Communications/decision making  

摘要： The adaptability of olive-growing systems to climate change is studied in the Sierra Magina region (Andalusia) using an interdisciplinary approach that evaluates and makes associations across climate, water resources, and socioeconomic strategies. First, the evolution of rainfall and temperature during the twenty-first century is assessed at the local scale using 17 regional climate model (RCM) simulations. A 15%-30% rainfall reduction is expected in the fall combined with a 7%-9% annual reduction by 2030-50. Based on a regression model relating yields to rainfall, residual yields (independent of the increasing trend in the present period and from the biennial fruit bearing of the olive tree) are projected to decrease by 7% and 3.5% by 2030-50 for rainfed and irrigated olive groves, respectively. Substantial uncertainties in these results are discussed. A GIS analysis shows a reduction of ground and surface water resources, which are the basis of the present adaptation to rainfall variability, and an uneven potential for adaptation to climate change in the Sierra Magina region. Despite the important challenges faced by this rural region, there is no consensus among the local key actors regarding adaptation strategies. This is due in part to the diversity among farmers, but also to the different levels of awareness about climate change among all the stakeholders and farmers. Since the projected decline in medium-range future yields is not very high, there might be time and possibilities, especially in the northern part of the Sierra Magina, to build a local adaptability strategy within the next 20 years that would take into account improved methods of water management and a better economic valorization of olive oil. But at longer time scales, the adaptability of the olive-growing system to yield and water resource declines seems to be threatened.

关键词： agricultural productivity   climate change   dietary energy   food security   long-run analysis  

摘要： In this paper, we examine how the complexities introduced by trends in agricultural productivity and climate change affect the future of global food security. We use a partial equilibrium model of global agriculture incorporating a food security module that links changes in the average dietary energy intake to shifts in the full caloric distribution, allowing us to compute changes in the incidence, headcount and average depth of malnutrition. After validating the model against an historical period, we implement a series of future scenarios to understand the impacts of key exogenous drivers on selected food security outcomes. Our results show improvements in global food security for the period 2006-2050. Despite growing population and increased biofuel demand, baseline income growth, coupled with projected increases in agricultural productivity lead to a 24 per cent rise in global average dietary energy intake. Consequently, the incidence of malnutrition falls by 84 per cent, lifting more than half a billion people out of extreme hunger. However, these results hinge heavily on agricultural productivity growth. Without such growth, there could be a substantial setback on food security improvements. Climate change adds uncertainty to these projections, depending critically on the crop yield impacts of increasing CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere.

关键词： CLIMATE change   NONFICTION  

摘要： Click to increase image sizeClick to decrease image size

关键词： Climate change   farming model   irrigation   uncertainty  

摘要： Agriculture could be one of the most vulnerable economic sectors to the impacts of climate change in the coming decades, with impacts threatening agricultural production in general and food security in particular. Within this context, climate change will impose a challenge to policy makers, especially in those countries that based their development on primary sectors. In this paper we present a non-linear agricultural supply model for the analysis of the economic impacts of changes in crop yields due to climate change. The model accounts for uncertainty through the use of Monte Carlo simulations about crop yields. According to our results, climate change impacts on the Chilean agricultural sector are widespread, with considerable distributional consequences across regions, and with fruits producers being worst-off than crops producers. In general, the results reported here are consistent with those reported by previous studies showing large economic impacts on the northern zone. However, our model does not simulate remarkable economic consequences at the country level as previous studies did.

关键词： Agroecology   Arable biodiversity   Weed management   Weed control   Weed species composition   Functional trait   Ecological niche   Central Europe  

摘要： Over the past decades, climate change has induced transformations in the weed flora of arable ecosystems in Europe. For instance, thermophile weeds, late-emerging weeds, and some opportunistic weeds have become more abundant in some cropping systems. The composition of arable weed species is indeed ruled by environmental conditions such as temperature and precipitation. Climate change also influences weeds indirectly by enforcing adaptations of agronomic practice. We therefore need more accurate estimations of the damage potential of arable weeds to develop effective weed control strategies while maintaining crop yield. Here we review the mechanisms of responses of arable weeds to the direct and indirect effects of climate change. Climate change effects are categorized into three distinct types of shifts occurring at different scales: (1) range shifts at the landscape scale, (2) niche shifts at the community scale, and (3) trait shifts of individual species at the population scale. Our main conclusions are changes in the species composition and new species introductions are favored, which facilitate major ecological and agronomical implications. Current research mainly considers processes at the landscape scale. Processes at the population and community scales have prevalent importance to devise sustainable management strategies. Trait-climate and niche-climate relationships warrant closer consideration when modeling the possible future distribution and damage potential of weeds with climate change.