关键词： 气候变化   气象灾害   病虫害  

摘要： 气象变化对各地的影响是多尺度、多方面的,可能会引起粮食的增产,但是同样也会带来很大的农业气象灾害和病虫害。本文主要研究气候变化对农业气象灾害与病虫害的影响,希望能为相关人员带来一些帮助。

关键词： Agricultural productivity   Bangladesh   climate change  

摘要： This paper studies the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity in Bangladesh for the period 1975-2008 for 23 regions. First, the study relies on descriptive statistics to explore the long term changes at both country and local level in climatic variables such as temperature, rainfall, humidity and sunshine. Second, it uses regression models to estimate the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity. Unlike the existing literature, this study exploits within-region time series variations (regional fixed effect) to estimate the impact of long term changes in climatic variables on agricultural productivity in order to control for regional differences, both observed and unobserved. Descriptive statistics shows that overall average, maximum and minimum temperatures in the dry and wet seasons have increased in recent years. Fluctuations in the minimum and maximum temperatures have also increased. Average rainfall in the dry season has increased substantially with greater fluctuations. Regression results show that an increase in the average minimum temperature in the dry season by one unit increases per acre rice output by 3.7% to 11.6%. Average minimum temperature in the wet season is also found to have a negative and significant impact even after controlling for region and year fixed effects. Standard deviations of maximum temperature in both dry and wet seasons are found to have a negative impact on agricultural productivity, though the impact in the wet season loses its significance after controlling for the year fixed effect. In the case of Boro rice, the only variable that is significant after controlling region and year specific heterogeneity is the standard deviation of maximum temperature in the Boro season. The regression results indicate that long term changes in means and standard deviations of the climatic variables have differential impacts on the productivity of rice and thus the overall impact of climate change on agriculture is not

关键词： 气候变化   农业生产   辽宁抚顺   1961-2010年  

摘要： 利用1961—2010年抚顺市温度、降水、日照和霜等气象资料,运用统计学方法对近50年抚顺市气候变化特点进行研究。结果表明:近50年来,抚顺市年平均和各季平均气温呈波动性上升趋势,年降水量和日照时数呈减少趋势,无霜期延长。气候变化对农业的影响表现在2个方面,一方面气温的不断上升使农业生产上可利用的热量资源不断增多,特别是冬季气温的明显上升,对发展反季节果菜生产有利;另一方面由于气温上升,高温天气增多,降水减少,干旱频率增大,抑制了作物的生长发育。

关键词： 气候变化   农业生产   影响   对策   内蒙古包头  

摘要： 通过对包头市1961—2010年近50年的气象特征进行分析,介绍了包头市气候变化对农业生产的影响,并针对其产生的不利影响提出应对策略,以期为适应和降低气候变化对农业的影响提供科学依据。

关键词： Length of crop growing cycle   Potentially cultivable areas   Crop water requirements   Rainfed cropping   Deficit irrigation   Relative yield losses  

摘要： High resolution climate data, derived from the ENSEMBLES Regional Climate Models outputs, were used to assess the impacts of climate change on crop water and irrigation requirements and yield of winter wheat and tomato in the Mediterranean region. Data, based on the A1B emission scenario, were arranged purposefully to represent the years 2000 and 2050. Over this 50-years span, an overall reduction of annual precipitation of 39.1 +/- 55.1 mm and an increase of air temperature of 1.57 +/- 0.27 degrees C (from 0.84 to 2.31 degrees C) are predicted. The consequent increase of annual reference evapotranspiration is 92.3 +/- 42.1 mm (6.7%). The potentially cultivable areas of winter wheat and tomato may increase by 7 and 24%, respectively, and might be extended prevalently in the Northern Mediterranean countries. The average length of growing season was estimated to be shorter in 2050 by 15 and 12 days for wheat and tomato, respectively. Due to anticipation and shortening of growing season, the crop evapotranspiration is foreseen to be reduced by 6 and 5% for wheat and tomato, respectively. The net irrigation requirements (NIR) under optimal water supply may decrease by 11% for wheat and 5% for tomato. Under moderate deficit irrigation, NIR are foreseen to decrease by 14 and 7% respectively for wheat and tomato. As a whole, a slight increase of relative yield losses (RYL) is expected for rainfed wheat, particularly in the Northern Mediterranean. Overall, tomato RYL are not expected to change in the future. The foreseen impact of precipitation decrease is more relevant for winter-spring crops. Hence, the adoption of supplemental irrigation for winter wheat could become more widespread also in the northern Mediterranean countries. Differently, for tomato, cropped in most areas out of the rainy season, the irrigation strategies are expected to remain similar as today. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

关键词： 农业   气象   气候变化   灾害  

摘要： 我国地大物博、幅员辽阔,不同地区的气候变化存在着不同的变化趋势,也从不同程度上影响着我国农业的生产和发展,既有有利的影响,也有不利的影响。因此,总结出气候变化对农业气象灾害的影响,对预防和减少未来气候变化对农业气象的影响具有重要的现实意义。

关键词： 气候变化   农业技术   技术评估   适应能力  

摘要： 以气候变暖为主要特征的全球气候变化对环境、生态和社会经济系统产生重大影响,并通过对农业生产和相关产业的影响直接威胁我国乃至全球的粮食安全。在文献分析和实地调研的基础上,收集和整理农业生产基本数据和我国现有的农业技术资料数据;根据IPPC第5次评估报告中气候变化影响框架的基本思想,构建气候变化背景下区域与农业技术适应情景矩阵;采用多目标综合评价法,构建农业技术适宜性评估模型。结果表明:农业技术适宜性评估主要考虑技术本身的特点和区域的实际情况;在农业技术评价指标体系与区域评价指标体系构建中,主要考虑的因素包括:作物适宜性、水资源条件、光温条件、地形条件、经济条件和生态条件等6个方面;应用农业技术适宜性评估模型,可实现农业技术的区域适宜性评估,获得不同农业种植二级区内适应气候变化的农业技术。

关键词： Climate change   Agriculture   Vulnerability   Sensitivity   Adaptive capacity   Exposure degree  

摘要： Climate change has affected all aspects of human societal development as a global problem, especially agriculture, which is closely related to human survival. Evaluating vulnerability can be helpful in assessing the impact of climate change and analyzing the effectiveness and adaptive degrees of different countermeasures to provide a reliable basis for addressing climate change. However, determining how to quantitatively evaluate vulnerability is a difficult problem and a pressing question. We propose an objective and quantitative assessment method for agricultural vulnerability under climate change according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's definition of vulnerability and a framework of sensitivity, adaptive capacity, and exposure degree. We explain the practical and objective attributes of this method using Wuchuan County in Inner Mongolia as an example. This assessment method can clarify the effects of climate change on agriculture and effective countermeasures, as well as contribute to the sustainable agricultural development. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词： Agricultural ecosystem services   Integrated modeling   Policy impact analysis   Regional climate change   Macro-economic indicators   Biodiversity and landscape metrics  

摘要： We have developed an integrated modeling framework (IMF) to quantify indicators for ecosystem services (ES) and economic development (ED) in agricultural landscapes. Austria serves as a case study in which impacts, trade-offs, and synergies of ES and ED are assessed for different agricultural policy pathways and regional climate change scenarios. Agricultural intensification and incentivized use of provisioning ES (e.g. biomass production) lead to higher macro-economic output (e.g. GDP) but usually reduce ES related to regulation and maintenance (e.g. ecological integrity, climate regulation), as well as cultural services (landscape diversity). We revealed both synergies for certain ES (e.g. biomass production and soil organic carbon stocks) as well as large spatial deviations from the national mean across the heterogeneous agricultural landscapes in Austria. Climate change scenarios (i) lead to substantial variation in ES and ED indicators and (ii) usually amplify trade-offs by stimulating land use intensification. Our findings depict the complex relationship between different ES and ED indicators as well as the importance of considering spatial heterogeneity and regional climate change. This assessment can help to improve targeting of agri-environmental schemes in order to provide a more balanced and efficient supply of ES and to foster rural development. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

关键词： global warming   Poland   pluviothermal regions   climatic water balance  

摘要： Spatial diversity and total area of thermal-humid regions have been assessed and, in addition, climatic water balance values have been calculated, employing specific time-frames up until the year 2020. The latter calculations have been performed taking into account temperature averages for the period 1971-2000, and constant precipitation. In order to designate thermal-humid regions the Daunbenmiere method has been used (version modified by Cherszlcowicz) in which thermal conditions are determined on the basis of effective temperature sums >= 10.0 degrees C, while pluvial conditions are determined based on the hydrothermal coefficient (K=10P/t) for the period from June until August where P signifies sums of precipitation and t daily sums of air temperature values. The climatic water balance was calculated as the difference between precipitation sums and sums of potential evaporation calculated using the Thomthwaite method. A systematic increase of the area of temperate warm and warm regions has been identified (from 62% in the period 1971-2000 to 88% for values estimated for 2000, 98% for values estimated for 2010, and 100% for 2015 and 2020). Meanwhile, a systematic increase in the area of temperate thy regions has been observed (20% of Poland in 1971-2000, 45% for values estimated for 2010, and 48% for values estimated for 2015 and 2020). The values of climatic water balance have decreased in the Nizina Wielkopolska from -160 mm (1971-2000) to -220 mm (for values estimated for 2015).