关键词： Climate change adaptation   Limiting factors   Psychological distance   Farm systems  

摘要： Consensus is growing that agriculture is vulnerable to climate change and adaptation responses are necessary to minimize impacts. Nonetheless, the diversity of potential impacts, agro-ecological contexts and regional capacity for change make understanding adaptation behaviors challenging and ensure that climate change adaptation will not be the same across all contexts. Considering this heterogeneity, this paper aims to develop a theoretical approach to connect agro-ecosystem diversity with farmer decisionmaking in the context of agricultural adaptation to climate change. We combine the ecological principle of Liebig's Law of the Minimum with the Psychological Distance Theory to suggest how adaptation behaviors vary across regional contexts. We argue with our limiting factors hypothesis that limiting factors within a farm system (water or temperature impacts) influence the adoption of adaptation practices differently across regions and farm systems. Limiting factors varied across farm systems and regions, based on historical climate changes, agro-ecological contexts, infrastructure and adaptation capacity. Using farmer survey data from New Zealand we show that limiting factors mediate the effect of past climate experiences on the adoption of adaptation strategies differently in two regions with water acting as a limiting factor in Hawke's Bay and water and temperature as a limiting factor in Marlborough. This suggests that farmers perceive and respond to climate change in part due to their personal experiences with climate change and the limiting factors within their system. Such results are relevant for the development of regional adaptation strategies, effective policies and targeted climate change communication. (C) 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

关键词： GENETIC engineering   CLIMATIC changes -- Prevention   POVERTY reduction   GREENHOUSE gas mitigation   AGRICULTURAL productivity  

摘要： The article discusses a report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) which overlooked the role of genetic engineering (GE) to meet the challenges of climate change and, to address problems of poverty. Topics discussed include contribution of GE in reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, impact of genetic modification in agriculture and role of GE to increase the agricultural productivity.

关键词： Climate change   Adaptation   Scale   Hierarchy   Spatial   Agriculture  

摘要： Historically, innovation in industrialised agricultural landscapes has been slow. Likewise, future climate change adaptation (CCA) will also be slow if complex interactions highlighted in the innovation and adoption literature are ignored. The aim of this review is to collate and conceptualise this multidisciplinary literature into a nested multi-scale spatial hierarchy to understand the complexity of the CCA decision making process, highlighting the influential factors across the nested scales. Seven nested hierarchical scales were identified under an overarching level of governance. The outer boundary is the Hazardscape a spatially defined climatic region where potential impacts of climate change (CC) and suitable CCA strategies are defined. Differing socio-economic and demographic profiles (Community Typologies) under this scale mean that these strategies need to be tailored to enhance community adoption and bolster their resilience to CC. The strength and type of social interaction within and between Community will also influence CCA. Central to the hierarchy is the variation in Individuals' beliefs and risk perceptions. Greater CC risk perception within the Household can enhance or constrain CCA at the Farm scale. In turn, the Farm scale attributes can influence CCA. Differing Farm and Farmer characteristics provide a further layer of complexity when considering CCA capability. Greater knowledge and evaluation of the circumstances and factors involved in CCA decision making highlighted by the use of the hierarchy will create an evidence base which will allow a more targeted approach to CCA. Adoption can be increased through a targeted range of CCA strategies and tailored plans of communication and dissemination of CC and CCA information across the nested scales. This approach will build much needed momentum for CCA in a rural setting. While the interaction between scales is discussed, future research is required to understand the cross-scale interactions, feedb

关键词： agriculture   socio-economic effects   climate change   Ecological Impacts of Climate Change  

摘要： In this paper we assess the potential economic effects of climate change on Brazilian agriculture scenarios in different regions in a general equilibrium framework, using a detailed regional economic database for the year 2005. Two different climate change impact scenarios are simulated. This paper extends the Brazilian literature in three different ways: by considering detailed shocks by product and region;by highlighting the connections between the potential impacts of climate change on agriculture and the labor market, with an inter-regional focus;and by specifying the links between climate change forecasts for agriculture and household expenditures. Results show that climate change impacts on Brazilian agriculture would have a relatively small economic effect on the Brazilian economy in aggregate terms, but with severe consequences at the regional level, making a strong case for losses that would be concentrated in the poorest regions and for the poorest workers and households in those regions.

关键词： Vulnerability assessment   Hydrological modelling   Climate change   Agricultural water resources   Black Sea  

摘要： Agriculture in the Black Sea catchment is responsible for a considerable share of the area's total water withdrawal and the majority of its total water consumption. It therefore plays a key role in sustainable water resources management. However, in the future water resources will be exposed to climate change. This assessment aims at identifying the most vulnerable regions and to explain the reasons of this vulnerability. It is based on a combination of the well-known Driver Pressure State Impact Response framework (DPSIR) and the vulnerability concept as defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Three distinctive climate change scenarios are used to assess their impacts on water resources for agriculture: (1) an increase in temperature;(2) a decrease in precipitation;and (3) a combination of the first and second scenarios. The data for this assessment is derived from a SWAT model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool). The results show that the regions of the Black Sea catchment are impacted by climate change differently. Some countries benefit from climate change (e.g., Turkey, Ukraine, Romania, Moldova, Hungary, Bulgaria) while others will encounter considerably worse agro-climatic conditions in the future (e.g., Montenegro, Austria, Bosnia Herzegovina). Additionally, natural plant growth conditions mostly improve due to more suitable temperature conditions. In contrast, the deteriorating agricultural conditions mainly result from a diminishing irrigation potential that is caused by reduced precipitation. The conclusion emphasises the important role of the legal framework as well as more sustainable agronomic practices and proposes improvements for future assessment methods in this research field. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词： Africa south of the Sahara   Climate   Geographic Regions   wet season   Case studies   REVENUE   climate change   socio-economic effects   West Africa   Ecological Impacts of Climate Change   Socioeconomic Factors  

摘要： Continental-scale economic analysis suggests that changes in climate conditions are associated with lower agricultural net revenue in sub-Saharan Africa. Specific locations, however, may not reflect this overall trend due to variation in baseline climate, soils, and socioeconomic factors that are difficult to model at large scales. The economic effect of changes in climate conditions on agricultural revenue in particular places in sub-Saharan Africa remains largely unknown. To test this effect, we study an area of West Africa with high climate variation over a small geographic area. We find that higher temperatures and precipitation lower agricultural revenues in the more important rainy season but increase revenues in the less important cool, dry season.

关键词： Adaptation   Agriculture   Climate change   Willingness to pay (WTP)   Contingent valuation method (CVM)  

摘要： This paper estimates Malaysian farmers' willingness to pay (WTP) for a planned adaptation programme for addressing climate issues in the Malaysian agricultural sector. We used the contingent valuation method (CVM) for a monetary valuation of farmers' preferences for a planned adaptation programme by ascertaining the value attached to address climatic issues in the Malaysian agricultural sector. Structured questionnaires were distributed among the sampled farmers. The study found that 74 % of respondents were willing to pay for a planned adaptation programme and that several socioeconomic and motivation factors have greater influence on their WTP. This paper clearly specifies the steps needed for all institutional bodies to better address issues in climate change. The outcomes of this paper will support policy makers to better design an efficient adaptation framework for adapting to the adverse impacts of climate change.

关键词： Agricultural production   Impact analysis   Climate change  

摘要： Assessment of agricultural vulnerability to climate change is a prerequisite for developing effective adaptation options and strategies for the future. While assessment approaches vary across sectors and countries, there is a need to devise an effective method to assess agricultural vulnerability and provide information to policy-makers and stakeholders so that they can take appropriate adaptation actions. Agricultural vulnerability is analyzed as a function of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity using a multi-indicator approach. Spatial and temporal assessment is undertaken through constructing maps of agricultural vulnerability in China. The results indicate that using multiple indicators is very practical for assessing agricultural vulnerability and that agricultural vulnerability is already significant in Guizhou, Guangxi and Yunnan provinces in China and will become more serious in the 2040s. It was also found that adaptive capacity was generally underdeveloped in poor regions, such as Guizhou, Yunnan and Gansu. We recommend that policy-makers increase investment in improving irrigation infrastructure and provide more opportunities for the education of farmers and stakeholders together with developing the economy in vulnerable areas.

关键词： Agriculture   Climate models   Climatic variability   Numerical simulations   Irrigation   Climate change   Development projects   Farms   Simulation   Land use   Income   Adaptability   Households   Economics   Vulnerability   Side effects   Technology  

摘要： This paper analyzes the potential effects of climate change on Brazilian agriculture by considering irrigation as an adaptive strategy. Investigations were performed to determine how climatic variability influences irrigation and whether this adaptive measure actually reduces producers' vulnerability to climate change. We used a simultaneous equations model with endogenous switching to account for the heterogeneity in the decision of whether to use adaptive measures. We compared the expected land values under the actual and counterfactual cases of farm households that either adapt or do not adapt to climate change. Simulation results show that irrigation can be an effective tool for counteracting the harmful effects of climate change. The income of farmers tends to increase on lands where irrigation technologies are practiced. These conclusions confirm the need to invest in adaptation strategies to prepare Brazil for coping with the adverse effects of global climate change.

关键词： Climate change  

摘要： Spring flooding and water availability during the summer are two major concerns in southern Quebec. Climate change is expected to further exacerbate shortages of fresh water resources in Quebec. Therefore, the impacts of climate change on the hydrology of the Pike River watershed were projected for the 2041-2070 time horizon using a version of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWATqc) adapted to Quebec's agroclimatic conditions. SWATqc was driven by inputs from four climate projections created with the fourth-generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM4) and the Arpege regional climate model. CRCM4 was driven at the border of its domain by three members of the Canadian Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM3). The Arpege model, which has a variable grid, is not driven by another model. The gas emissions scenario used to drive climate models was scenario A2. Regional climate data sets were bias-corrected with the delta method prior to being used to drive SWATqc. Projected changes in precipitation and temperatures were analysed for their effects on evapotranspiration, surface and subsurface runoff, and streamflow. Mean annual streamflow was projected to increase between 9 and 19%. All future simulations projected significant increases or decreases in evapotranspiration, surface and subsurface runoff, and streamflow at the monthly time scale. Winter streamflow, for example, increased by 2- to 3-fold compared with the historical values. In addition, future spring floods started earlier and peaked in March instead of April. The four simulations were named ADC, ACU, AFA/AFD, and ARP. All but the ACU simulation projected a decrease in peak flow, while the ADC, AFD and ARP simulations suggested an increase. Although the majority of the simulations pointed to decreases in summer streamflows, the changes were not all significantly different from historical values. Results from this study not only show that climate change has a strong potential to exacerbate seasonal water