关键词： Agriculture   Climate models   Climatic variability   Numerical simulations   Irrigation   Climate change   Development projects   Farms   Simulation   Land use   Income   Adaptability   Households   Economics   Vulnerability   Side effects   Technology  

摘要： This paper analyzes the potential effects of climate change on Brazilian agriculture by considering irrigation as an adaptive strategy. Investigations were performed to determine how climatic variability influences irrigation and whether this adaptive measure actually reduces producers' vulnerability to climate change. We used a simultaneous equations model with endogenous switching to account for the heterogeneity in the decision of whether to use adaptive measures. We compared the expected land values under the actual and counterfactual cases of farm households that either adapt or do not adapt to climate change. Simulation results show that irrigation can be an effective tool for counteracting the harmful effects of climate change. The income of farmers tends to increase on lands where irrigation technologies are practiced. These conclusions confirm the need to invest in adaptation strategies to prepare Brazil for coping with the adverse effects of global climate change.

关键词： Climate change  

摘要： Spring flooding and water availability during the summer are two major concerns in southern Quebec. Climate change is expected to further exacerbate shortages of fresh water resources in Quebec. Therefore, the impacts of climate change on the hydrology of the Pike River watershed were projected for the 2041-2070 time horizon using a version of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWATqc) adapted to Quebec's agroclimatic conditions. SWATqc was driven by inputs from four climate projections created with the fourth-generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM4) and the Arpege regional climate model. CRCM4 was driven at the border of its domain by three members of the Canadian Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM3). The Arpege model, which has a variable grid, is not driven by another model. The gas emissions scenario used to drive climate models was scenario A2. Regional climate data sets were bias-corrected with the delta method prior to being used to drive SWATqc. Projected changes in precipitation and temperatures were analysed for their effects on evapotranspiration, surface and subsurface runoff, and streamflow. Mean annual streamflow was projected to increase between 9 and 19%. All future simulations projected significant increases or decreases in evapotranspiration, surface and subsurface runoff, and streamflow at the monthly time scale. Winter streamflow, for example, increased by 2- to 3-fold compared with the historical values. In addition, future spring floods started earlier and peaked in March instead of April. The four simulations were named ADC, ACU, AFA/AFD, and ARP. All but the ACU simulation projected a decrease in peak flow, while the ADC, AFD and ARP simulations suggested an increase. Although the majority of the simulations pointed to decreases in summer streamflows, the changes were not all significantly different from historical values. Results from this study not only show that climate change has a strong potential to exacerbate seasonal water

关键词： 气候变化   气象灾害   病虫害  

摘要： 气象变化对各地的影响是多尺度、多方面的,可能会引起粮食的增产,但是同样也会带来很大的农业气象灾害和病虫害。本文主要研究气候变化对农业气象灾害与病虫害的影响,希望能为相关人员带来一些帮助。

关键词： 气候变化   农业生产   辽宁抚顺   1961-2010年  

摘要： 利用1961—2010年抚顺市温度、降水、日照和霜等气象资料,运用统计学方法对近50年抚顺市气候变化特点进行研究。结果表明:近50年来,抚顺市年平均和各季平均气温呈波动性上升趋势,年降水量和日照时数呈减少趋势,无霜期延长。气候变化对农业的影响表现在2个方面,一方面气温的不断上升使农业生产上可利用的热量资源不断增多,特别是冬季气温的明显上升,对发展反季节果菜生产有利;另一方面由于气温上升,高温天气增多,降水减少,干旱频率增大,抑制了作物的生长发育。

关键词： 气候变化   农业生产   影响   对策   内蒙古包头  

摘要： 通过对包头市1961—2010年近50年的气象特征进行分析,介绍了包头市气候变化对农业生产的影响,并针对其产生的不利影响提出应对策略,以期为适应和降低气候变化对农业的影响提供科学依据。

关键词： Length of crop growing cycle   Potentially cultivable areas   Crop water requirements   Rainfed cropping   Deficit irrigation   Relative yield losses  

摘要： High resolution climate data, derived from the ENSEMBLES Regional Climate Models outputs, were used to assess the impacts of climate change on crop water and irrigation requirements and yield of winter wheat and tomato in the Mediterranean region. Data, based on the A1B emission scenario, were arranged purposefully to represent the years 2000 and 2050. Over this 50-years span, an overall reduction of annual precipitation of 39.1 +/- 55.1 mm and an increase of air temperature of 1.57 +/- 0.27 degrees C (from 0.84 to 2.31 degrees C) are predicted. The consequent increase of annual reference evapotranspiration is 92.3 +/- 42.1 mm (6.7%). The potentially cultivable areas of winter wheat and tomato may increase by 7 and 24%, respectively, and might be extended prevalently in the Northern Mediterranean countries. The average length of growing season was estimated to be shorter in 2050 by 15 and 12 days for wheat and tomato, respectively. Due to anticipation and shortening of growing season, the crop evapotranspiration is foreseen to be reduced by 6 and 5% for wheat and tomato, respectively. The net irrigation requirements (NIR) under optimal water supply may decrease by 11% for wheat and 5% for tomato. Under moderate deficit irrigation, NIR are foreseen to decrease by 14 and 7% respectively for wheat and tomato. As a whole, a slight increase of relative yield losses (RYL) is expected for rainfed wheat, particularly in the Northern Mediterranean. Overall, tomato RYL are not expected to change in the future. The foreseen impact of precipitation decrease is more relevant for winter-spring crops. Hence, the adoption of supplemental irrigation for winter wheat could become more widespread also in the northern Mediterranean countries. Differently, for tomato, cropped in most areas out of the rainy season, the irrigation strategies are expected to remain similar as today. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

关键词： 农业   气象   气候变化   灾害  

摘要： 我国地大物博、幅员辽阔,不同地区的气候变化存在着不同的变化趋势,也从不同程度上影响着我国农业的生产和发展,既有有利的影响,也有不利的影响。因此,总结出气候变化对农业气象灾害的影响,对预防和减少未来气候变化对农业气象的影响具有重要的现实意义。

关键词： 气候变化   农业技术   技术评估   适应能力  

摘要： 以气候变暖为主要特征的全球气候变化对环境、生态和社会经济系统产生重大影响,并通过对农业生产和相关产业的影响直接威胁我国乃至全球的粮食安全。在文献分析和实地调研的基础上,收集和整理农业生产基本数据和我国现有的农业技术资料数据;根据IPPC第5次评估报告中气候变化影响框架的基本思想,构建气候变化背景下区域与农业技术适应情景矩阵;采用多目标综合评价法,构建农业技术适宜性评估模型。结果表明:农业技术适宜性评估主要考虑技术本身的特点和区域的实际情况;在农业技术评价指标体系与区域评价指标体系构建中,主要考虑的因素包括:作物适宜性、水资源条件、光温条件、地形条件、经济条件和生态条件等6个方面;应用农业技术适宜性评估模型,可实现农业技术的区域适宜性评估,获得不同农业种植二级区内适应气候变化的农业技术。

关键词： Climate change   Agriculture   Vulnerability   Sensitivity   Adaptive capacity   Exposure degree  

摘要： Climate change has affected all aspects of human societal development as a global problem, especially agriculture, which is closely related to human survival. Evaluating vulnerability can be helpful in assessing the impact of climate change and analyzing the effectiveness and adaptive degrees of different countermeasures to provide a reliable basis for addressing climate change. However, determining how to quantitatively evaluate vulnerability is a difficult problem and a pressing question. We propose an objective and quantitative assessment method for agricultural vulnerability under climate change according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's definition of vulnerability and a framework of sensitivity, adaptive capacity, and exposure degree. We explain the practical and objective attributes of this method using Wuchuan County in Inner Mongolia as an example. This assessment method can clarify the effects of climate change on agriculture and effective countermeasures, as well as contribute to the sustainable agricultural development. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词： Agricultural ecosystem services   Integrated modeling   Policy impact analysis   Regional climate change   Macro-economic indicators   Biodiversity and landscape metrics  

摘要： We have developed an integrated modeling framework (IMF) to quantify indicators for ecosystem services (ES) and economic development (ED) in agricultural landscapes. Austria serves as a case study in which impacts, trade-offs, and synergies of ES and ED are assessed for different agricultural policy pathways and regional climate change scenarios. Agricultural intensification and incentivized use of provisioning ES (e.g. biomass production) lead to higher macro-economic output (e.g. GDP) but usually reduce ES related to regulation and maintenance (e.g. ecological integrity, climate regulation), as well as cultural services (landscape diversity). We revealed both synergies for certain ES (e.g. biomass production and soil organic carbon stocks) as well as large spatial deviations from the national mean across the heterogeneous agricultural landscapes in Austria. Climate change scenarios (i) lead to substantial variation in ES and ED indicators and (ii) usually amplify trade-offs by stimulating land use intensification. Our findings depict the complex relationship between different ES and ED indicators as well as the importance of considering spatial heterogeneity and regional climate change. This assessment can help to improve targeting of agri-environmental schemes in order to provide a more balanced and efficient supply of ES and to foster rural development. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.