关键词： 模型   气候变化   农业   供需水量   宝鸡峡灌区   STELLA  

摘要： 为了评估气候变化对灌区农业供需水量的影响,基于系统动力学软件STELLA（structure thinking experimental learning laboratory with animation）建立了宝鸡峡灌区供需水量计算模型,结合灌区气象水文数据,利用非一致性水文频率计算原理,预估了未来可供水量和气候变化情景,模拟了气候变化情景下不同规划水平年灌区农业供需水状况。结果表明：灌区主要水源渭河径流在1989年发生跳跃变化,跃幅为-14.25亿m^3,各典型年预估径流量（1989-2030年）比原序列（1954-2010年）对应值减少40%-55%,导致农业可供水量锐减;在α=0.05的显著水平上,1981-2010年灌区降水下降不显著,平均气温、最高气温显著上升而相对湿度和风速显著下降,其他因子无明显趋势;灌区未来各典型年农业需水量2030年比2010年增加1.08-2.19亿m^3,水资源供需平衡指数上升9.06%-14.46%,说明灌区农业供需水平衡状况受气候变化影响显著,必须在规划、设计和管理中予以考虑并采取积极的应对措施。研究结果为气候变化条件下灌区农业水资源合理配置提供了参考。

关键词： Climate change   Land use change   Agriculture   Mitigation potentials   Indonesia  

摘要： We quantitatively evaluated mitigation potentials of greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture and land use sectors in Indonesia. We also determined for the land use sector 1) how much time is needed to plan the mitigation strategy, and 2) how much time is needed to evaluate the effectiveness of mitigation measures? We used a bottom-up type model on emission mitigation named Agriculture Forestry and Other Land Use Bottom-up model (AFOLU-B model) to consider a characteristics time sequence of actions, effects and costs of mitigation countermeasures. To input to the model, we developed future scenarios on human activities in these sectors based on data from Indonesian government. We found that i) evaluation on effects and costs of mitigation measures from a long-term viewpoint and their continuing implementation are required to increase future mitigation potentials under a limited budget. ii) a long-term reduction target will also play an important role for cost-effective countermeasure selection. iii) reforestation of slow glowing species and enhanced natural regeneration will cause great increase in mitigation potential in the country.

关键词： CLIMATIC changes   NONFICTION  

关键词： Agricultural Policy Environmental eXtender model   climate change   cover crop   management   no-till   runoff  

摘要： Long-term hydrologic data sets are required to quantify the impacts of management and climate on runoff at the field scale where management practices are applied. This study was conducted to evaluate the impacts of long-term management and climate on runoff from a small watershed managed with no-till (NT) system. The Agricultural Policy Environmental eXtender (APEX), a field scale hydrologic model which is capable of simulating the management and climate impacts on runoff, was used in this study. The specific objectives of the study were to (1) simulate the impacts of cropping management and tillage system on runoff and (2) simulate climate change impacts on runoff using different temperature, precipitation, and carbon dioxide (CO2) scenarios generated from the APEX model. The study was conducted on a small watershed located on the North Appalachian Experimental Watershed (NAEW) near Coshocton, Ohio. This watershed (WS 118, similar to 0.79 ha [1.95 ac]) includes NT management with two periods of crop rotations: corn (Zea mays L.)-soybean (Glycine max L.)-rye (Secale cereale L.) (CSR;2000 to 2005) and continuous corn (CC;2006 to 2011). The results from this study indicate that the CSR rotation showed 37% lower simulated mean annual runoff compared with that of CC under NT system. The climate change scenarios indicated runoff was most sensitive to the precipitation, and interactions of precipitation, temperature, and CO2 concentrations. The highest increase of runoff (61%) was observed with 15% increase of precipitation, and the highest reduction in runoff (47%) with 15% decrease in precipitation, demonstrating the nonlinearity of hydrological systems. The results demonstrate the benefits of cover crops in the CSR over the CC rotation under NT system and show the significant impacts of climate change on runoff response from a small, upland, agricultural watershed. For future research, climate change impacts on runoff can be assessed using downscaled climate models tha

关键词： Adaptation   agriculture   climate change   irrigation shortage   RegionalEnvironment and Agriculture Programming (REAP) model   regional cropproduction   water resources   Q1   Q2   Q3  

摘要： General circulation models predict significant and accelerating changes in local patterns of precipitation and temperature during the twenty-first century. Agriculture's vulnerability to climate change will depend on both the biophysical impacts of climate change on crop yields and on the agricultural system's ability to adapt to changing production conditions. Shifts in the extent and distribution of irrigated and dryland production are a potentially important adaptation response. Farmer flexibility to adapt may be limited, however, by changes in the availability of irrigation water under future climate conditions. This study uses a suite of models to explore the biophysical and economic impacts of climate change on U.S. fieldcrop production under several potential future climate projections, and to explore the potential limits and opportunities for adaptation arising from shifting regional water balances. The study findings suggest that, while irrigation shortages attributable to climate change have varying effects on cropland use, the aggregate impacts on national production are small relative to the direct biophysical impacts of climate change on yield.

关键词： Risk estimation   adaptive capacity   climate change   Countries (nations)   Tamil Nadu India   District   performance indicators   Vulnerability  

摘要： Vulnerability of a system is determined not only by the severity of climate change that occurs over the system but also by the system's own sensitivity and adaptive capacity to cope with new change in climatic condition. This study while examining the agricultural vulnerability of Tamil Nadu State in India to climate change, tries to improve upon the vulnerability assessment methodology. It chooses the growth and instability of certain performance indicators to capture the relative vulnerability positioning of the districts of Tamil Nadu. The normalized indicators are assigned weights based on the proportional acreage of major crops in each district with respect to the State. The weighted component indicators are then aggregated into a single index by merely adding them. In addition this study also categorizes the districts beyond ranking to have a meaningful characterization of the different stages of vulnerability. The results thus obtained reveal the fact that all districts in an agro climatic zone does not fall under the same category of vulnerability which exemplifies the need for the State to prioritize research and development issues and effective decision making through "Location-Performance-Vulnerability" based adaptation strategies. In doing so, one must take into account the local community's understanding of climate change.

关键词： climate change impacts   droughts   China  

摘要： Bias corrected daily climate projections from five global circulation models (GCMs) under the RCP8.5 emission scenarios were fed into a calibrated Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model to project future hydrological changes in China. The standardized precipitation index (SPI), standardized runoff index (SRI) and standardized soil moisture index (SSWI) were used to assess the climate change impact on droughts from meteorological, agricultural, and hydrologic perspectives. Changes in drought severity, duration, and frequency suggest that meteorological, hydrological and agricultural droughts will become more severe, prolonged, and frequent for 2020-2049 relative to 1971-2000, except for parts of northern and northeastern China. The frequency of long-term agricultural droughts (with duration larger than 4 months) will increase more than that of short-term droughts (with duration less than 4 months), while the opposite is projected for meteorological and hydrological droughts. In extreme cases, the most prolonged agricultural droughts increased from 6 to 26 months whereas the most prolonged meteorological and hydrological droughts changed little. The most severe hydrological drought intensity was about 3 times the baseline in general whereas the most severe meteorological and agricultural drought intensities were about 2 times and 1.5 times the baseline respectively. For the prescribed local temperature increments up to 3 degrees C, increase of agricultural drought occurrence is predicted whereas decreases or little changes of meteorological and hydrological drought occurrences are projected for most temperature increments. The largest increase of meteorological and hydrological drought durations and intensities occurred when temperature increased by 1 degrees C whereas agricultural drought duration and intensity tend to increase consistently with temperature increments. Our results emphasize that specific measures should be taken by specific sectors in

关键词： Agriculture   Biopolitics   Climate change adaptation   Vulnerability   Seasonal workers   Turkey  

摘要： There is a growing interest in the connection between climate change and migration, but literature so far has mostly focused on climate refugees, permanent migrants, and the implications for destination countries. Seasonal workers, one of the most vulnerable groups in the agricultural sector, have received scant attention. Nonetheless, several governments are already planning action to ensure the adaptation of seasonal workers to a changed climate. This article focuses on two recent social and climate change policies adopted by the Turkish government targeting seasonal workers. Based on a discourse analysis of the two policies and fieldwork carried out on a site of intervention, the article argues that such policies, although employed in the name of adaptation, are in fact biopolitical interventions. Their main purpose is to secure the uninterrupted circulation of commodities and workers rather than reduce root causes of vulnerability. As a result the responsibility to adapt is individualized. We contribute to an incipient literature on biopolitics and climate change by showing how the spectre of climate change and the pretext of adaptation serve to expand the state's control of populations rather than reduce core vulnerabilities. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词： Agricultural policy   Climate change   Suspended sediment   Phosphorus   Reduced tillage   Load calculation   Trend analysis  

摘要： We studied the influence of human activities and climate change on water quantity and quality. Human activities included methods of agricultural policy, i.e. land use and management practices. Finland started to follow EU's agricultural policy in 1995. In this study our main objective was to find out whether the original targets of the Finnish Agri-Environmental Programme (FAEP) were achieved. We analyzed trends in discharge, water quality and climate parameters in 37 years long time-series in two catchments. We focused on the suspended sediment and phosphorus concentrations and loads, the main interests to FAEP. We found an increasing trend in mean annual temperature, especially in spring and late summer-early autumn. There was no statistical significant change in annual runoff. Increasing winter runoff in the other catchment could be explained by the increased number of days when temperature was above zero degrees making snowmelt possible. In this area high potential sediment delivery occurred in early winter. FAEP succeeded in decreasing the suspended sediment load by reduced tillage and wintertime vegetation cover. In controlling the phosphorus loads FAEP succeeded only in the catchment with erosion sensitive soils. In the catchment where soils were less sensitive for erosion increase in the dissolved reactive phosphorus load exceeded the benefits of the reduced particulate phosphorus load. Climate change may increase the suspended sediment load by increasing winter runoff. Even then, instead of decreasing the suspended sediment loads FAEP should rather focus on dissolved nutrients as they cause eutrophication in receiving waters.

关键词： Agriculture   adaptation   climate change   farmers   food security  

摘要： Globally, climate change is a reality and adaptation to it is now a necessity. It is evident from the Brunei meteorological data analysis that over the last 27 years, the mean annual rainfall has increased by 675 mm during 1985-2012. The mean annual temperature has also increased by 0.794 degrees C during the last 30 years from 1978 to 2008. The standard of living is increasing with the advancement of new technologies and thus increasing the lifespan of individuals. The demand for food production will also increase and Brunei Darussalam relies heavily on import of various food grains, particularly rice having a self-sufficiency rate of only 5.06 per cent. The impact of increased demand for food production will be felt significantly in the agricultural sector. The study looks at the existing agricultural practice, the impact of climate change on agriculture and identifies the training needed for the farmers or agricultural workers to cope with the adverse impact of climate change. A case study was carried out to find the challenges the farmers are likely to face because of the climate change. It has been observed from the field survey that 76 per cent of the respondents involved in farming lack farming skills and experience especially those who are below the age of 30 while only a handful (3 per cent) of them have farming experience. The study reveals that agriculture activities require modification in order to cope with the climate change. A capacity-building process for agricultural adaption for Brunei Darussalam is proposed.