关键词： Agriculture   Bangladesh   Bottom-up model   Climate change   Land use change   Mitigation potentials  

摘要： In Bangladesh, 53 % of domestic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions were generated in the agriculture and other land use sectors in 2005. However, no specified measures for climate change mitigation have thus far been designated nationally in these sectors. In this paper, we quantified future greenhouse gas emissions and mitigation potentials through 2025 by using the Agriculture Forestry and Other Land Use Bottom-up model to clarify cost-effective technological options under different mitigation cost scenarios. We found that (1) GHG emissions of 69.1 MtCO(2)eq (Million tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) equilivalent)/year will be generated from the agriculture and land use sectors in 2025 in a baseline scenario, (2) a reduction of 32 MtCO(2)-eq/year (a 47 % reduction from baseline emissions) is possible at a cost of as much as US$10/tCO(2)-eq in 2025, (3) in agriculture, an emissions reduction of 10 MtCO(2)-eq/year could be achieved by implementing midseason drainage in rice cultivation, generating bioenergy from livestock manure, and replacing roughage with concentrated feed at mitigation cost of US$10/tCO(2)-eq in 2025, and (4) in the other land use sector, a mean annual mitigation potential of 6.5 MtCO(2)-eq/year can be achieved with a total mitigation cost of less than US$10 million (52 % of baseline land use emissions in 2025).

关键词： Climate change   Policies   Adaptation measures   Institutional transformation   Collaboration   Capacity building   CEE and CIS countries  

摘要： This paper explores the challenges of institutional transformation in agriculture countries of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), and their consequences for adaptation planning. We review key policy and planning documents and processes in CEE and CIS countries and conduct a series of interviews with key experts to analyse trends relevant for adaptation planning in the context of institutional transformation in three countries (Slovakia, Ukraine, and Tajikistan;total number of interviews 159). Our outcomes indicate that adaptation is not perceived as an important priority. Rather, two thirds of the respondents suggested their focusing on ensuring stable land use and ownership and support for infrastructure. The results also show that the importance of national level leadership in adaptation was not supported with regional and local agencies thought as potential key leaders in adaptation. Also, compared to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the European Union (EU) -15 countries of early adaptors (analysed in our earlier paper in this series), the focus in CEE and CIS countries on adaptation is sectorial, instead of looking at the role of agriculture in supporting wider societal needs. There is also limited integration and cooperation between researchers, policy-makers and other stakeholders in adaptation planning, a characteristic that played a key role in early adaptors' adaptation efforts. Finally, our findings imply that the CEE and CIS countries need to develop institutional capabilities at the regional and local level, as well as integrate adaptation actions with on-going efforts of improving the agricultural sector, while accounting for the dynamic nature of property rights, particularly the recent changes in land tenure.

关键词： Adaptation   Climate change   Hydro-economic modelling   Impact assessment   Irrigation   Water management  

摘要： Recent research has demonstrated the multidimensional and multi-scalar nature of climate change, evidencing the need to develop integrated tools for the analysis of impacts and adaptation. This research presents a hydro-economic model of the Middle-Guadiana basin, Spain, to assess potential effects of climate change on irrigated agriculture and options for adaptation. It combines a farm-based economic optimisation model with the hydrologic model WEAP, and represents the socio-economic, agronomic and hydrologic systems in a spatially-explicit manner covering all dimensions and scales relevant to climate change. Simulated scenarios include a severe A2 climate change scenario up to 2070, two policy-based adaptation scenarios, and autonomous adaptation. Results show that climate change may impact severely irrigation systems reducing water availability and crop yields, and increasing irrigation water requirements. The risk faced by farmers is determined by technology and water use efficiency but also by spatial location and decisions made in neighbouring irrigation areas. The analysis of adaptation strategies underscores the role of current EU water policy in facilitating adaptation. Overall, the applied framework proved to be a useful tool for supporting water and climate change policy-making. It contributes to improve understanding about potential impacts of climate change, multi-scale vulnerability and the scope for adaptation. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://***/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

关键词： AGRICULTURAL productivity   GLOBAL warming -- Environmental aspects   PLANT breeding   GENOMICS   POPULATION  

摘要： The article focuses on the global need for growing agricultural production to keep up with population growth citing reference to the challenges posed by global warming including warmer and drier agricultural areas. Topics discussed include lack of water severely curtailing yield; the need for increasing land under cultivation; and the role of modern genomics in plant breeding.

关键词： Climate change   Agriculture   Adaptation   Power-over   Preference shaping   National adaptation plans  

摘要： Questions of equity, justice, and fairness in the international agricultural adaptation regime have emerged in recent years, prompting interest in regime power dynamics. Here, a three-dimensional conceptual framework of 'power as domination' is applied to the UNFCCC adaptation regime. We argue that this 'power-over' framing is an important lens through which to view adaptation, a field dominated by 'power-to', capacity-based constructs. The framework distinguishes between power-over manifesting through decision-making, agenda setting and preference shaping. Through a literature review we demonstrate that first and second dimension behavioral views of power-over fail to account for the subtle ways in which the interests and preferences of smallholder farmers are unknowingly shaped and restricted within the regime. Potential sources of third dimension preference shaping power are explored in a survey with high-level decision makers involved in National Adaptation Plans (NAP) development in seven countries. The results suggest that several inter-related features of the international agriculture adaptation regime collectively contribute to the shaping of interests and preferences of smallholders: prevailing discourses of uncertainty and the perceived limited capacity of smallholders;the resulting privileged status of 'expert' decision makers;the predominance of neoliberal development rationalities;and systemic biases resulting from the nation state as the principle unit of UNFCCC negotiation. These forces lie beyond the explanatory scope of first and second dimensions of power-over and help to explain why stakeholder engagement in adaptation decision making remains superficial in nature and why adaptation responses in agriculture can be considered 'common and non-differentiated'. We argue for increased awareness of third dimension manifestations and impacts of power in adaptation literature to facilitate the improved participation of marginalized stakeholders in UNFCCC

关键词： rainfed agriculture   water balance   cropping season   water deficit   Comoe basin   Ivory Coast  

摘要： The objective of this study is to evaluate the impact of climate change on the hydrological balance of the Comoe basin, an area of rainfed agriculture. Frequency analysis of cropping seasons, with estimation of cumulative water deficit through a daily water balance simulation (1950-2000), was used to explore the impact of variation in climate conditions on the cropping season. The performance indicators show an uneven evolution of agroclimatic potential: in a unimodal regime centred on the north of the basin, the cropping season duration, which did not change significantly, is consistent with the small changes in onset and end dates to that season;however, the cumulative water deficit increased from 750 mm to more than 850 mm. In contrast, in the bimodal regime, the western fringe, while less affected by both the recession and the rainfall deficit, undergoes an unusually short duration of cropping season. Thus, the second cropping season no longer lasts 90 days and seems less compatible with some cropping cycles. Such drought could increase the risk in annual cereal production without, however, being a leading limiting factor.

关键词： AGRICULTURE   SUSTAINABLE development   PLANT nutrients   VEGETATION & climate   PLANT adaptation   CHINA  

关键词： 农业水利投资   水利资源   耕地利用   技术效率   随机前沿函数  

摘要： 本文基于1999—2012年省级面板数据,通过引入农业水利投资的代理变量,运用随机前沿模型分析农业水利投资对我国耕地产出效率、农业生产增长的影响。结果表明,农业水利投资对降低我国各地区耕地产出效率损失具有显著作用,而耕地产出效率损失的变化差异也能够被气候变化导致的水利灾害所解释。加大农业水利投资力度,改善投资结构,可以缓解农业技术的效率损失。政府应加大对耕地利用效率较低省份的水利基础设施投资,充分配置,合理运用水利资源,保障我国农业的可持续发展。

关键词： 气候变化   低碳农业   法律保障  

摘要： 日益加剧的气候变化对江苏省可持续发展的负面影响显著,迫切需要大力推进低碳农业建设,进一步修订农业领域应对气候变化的法律法规。尤其是通过完善土地资源保护、农药使用、林业与水资源保护等方面的地方性立法构建确保本区域低碳农业有序发展的法律保障机制。