关键词： 鄢陵县   气候变化   农业生产   影响   对策  

摘要： 通过对鄢陵县1965-2014年的气温、降水、日照等气候资料进行分析,结果表明:近50a来鄢陵县年平均气温呈逐步升高的趋势,特别是20世纪90年代后期至21世纪00年代中期,气温升高明显;年极端最高气温呈下降趋势,年极端最低气温无明显变化;春季、冬季平均气温上升趋势比较明显;年积温变化趋势与年平均气温变化趋势一致。年总降水量整体呈小幅上升趋势,四季降水量均有上升趋势,夏季最为明显,且对全年降水影响显著。日照时数呈明显减少的趋势,夏季、秋季、冬季日照时数减少趋势均较大,以夏季减少趋势最为明显。该文同时分析了气候变化对农业生产的影响,并提出了应对策略。

关键词： Climate change   Nutrient loading   Baltic Sea   Agricultural scenarios   Water quality modeling   VEMALA  

摘要： Climate change is expected to increase annual and especially winter runoff, shorten the snow cover period and therefore increase both nutrient leaching from agricultural areas and natural background leaching in the Baltic Sea catchment. We estimated the effects of climate change and possible future scenarios of agricultural changes on the phosphorus and nitrogen loading to the Baltic Sea from Finnish catchments. In the agricultural scenarios we assumed that the prices of agricultural products are among the primary drivers in the adaptation to climate change, as they affect the level of fertilization and the production intensity and volume and, hence, the modeled changes in gross nutrient loading from agricultural land. Optimal adaptation may increase production while supporting appropriate use of fertilization, resulting in low nutrient balance in the fields. However, a less optimal adaptation may result in higher nutrient balance and increased leaching. The changes in nutrient loading to the Baltic Sea were predicted by taking into account the agricultural scenarios in a nutrient loading model for Finnish catchments (VEMALA), which simulates runoff, nutrient processes, leaching and transport on land, in rivers and in lakes. We thus integrated the effects of climate change in the agricultural sector, nutrient loading in fields, natural background loading, hydrology and nutrient transport and retention processes. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

关键词： rainforest   energy partitioning   latent heat flux   heat flux   land use change   arc of deforestation  

摘要： Tropical deforestation changes the surface energy balance and water cycle, but how much change occurs strongly depends on the land uses that follow deforestation. Here, we quantify how recent (2000-2010) transitions among widespread land uses (i.e., forests, croplands, and pastures) altered the water and energy balance in the Xingu region of southeast Amazonia. Spatial-temporal analyses of multiple satellite data sets revealed that forest-to-crop and forest-to-pasture transitions decreased the net surface radiation (by 18% and 12%, respectively) and latent heat flux (32% and 24%), while increasing sensible heat flux (6% and 9%). Land use transitions during the 2000s reduced contemporaneous evapotranspiration (ET) in the Xingu region by 35 km(3) and warmed the land surface temperature (LST) by 0.3 degrees C. Forest-to-pasture and forest-to-crop transitions accounted for most of the observed ET reduction (25.5 km(3) and 7 km(3), respectively) and LST increase (0.2 degrees C and 0.07 degrees C). Pasture-to-crop transitions reduced ET by an additional 2.5 km(3) and increased LST by 0.03 degrees C. If land use had changed at a similar rate within the region's protected areas, ET would have decreased by another 4.7 km(3) and the surface would have warmed an additional 0.5 degrees C. Forests thus play a key role in regulating regional climate in Amazonia, with protected areas able to attenuate regional climate change caused by land use changes. Our findings show how a major non-GHG forcing, in this case agricultural expansion, has significantly altered regional climate in southeastern Amazonia and how protected forests can mitigate such changes.

关键词： Climate change   Water use   Population growth   Adaptation  

摘要： Egyptian agriculture is vulnerable to potential climate change due to its dependence on irrigated crops, a climate that is too dry to support crops, and increasing water demands. This study analyzes the agricultural implications of climate change and population growth plus possible adaptations strategies. A partial equilibrium model that simulates crop and livestock production along with water flows and non-agricultural water use is used to analyze the impact of climate change. The study examines the implications of climate change effects on crop yields, livestock performance, non-agricultural water use, water supply, irrigation water use, sea level rise and a growing population. Results indicate that climate change damages the Egyptian agricultural sector and the damages increase over time (2030-2060). Prices for agricultural commodities increase and this has a negative effect on consumers but a positive effect on producers. Egypt may reduce these damages by adapting through lower demand growth, raised agricultural technological progress, sea rise protection and water conservation strategies.

关键词： Climate change   Agriculture   Multicriteria analysis   PROMETHEE   Bangladesh  

摘要： This paper presents a PROMETHEE multicriteria outranking-based approach for prioritizing agricultural interventions to alleviate climate change on a farm basis. The drought-prone areas of Rajshahi and flood-saline-prone areas of Barisal in rural Bangladesh were chosen as case studies. A number of existent agricultural interventions have been comparatively evaluated upon several diversified criteria. The process of evaluation was held through an online survey to experts with knowledge in rice farming and climate change effects in Bangladesh. The findings indicate that water storage systems were prioritized first in northern drought area, whereas the introduction of improved rice varieties in flood-saline south was of the highest importance. Furthermore, the combined implementation of water storage, improved rice varieties, and seminars on agricultural management to farmers was signified as an integrated response to climate change for both regions. The findings were already presented to key stakeholders where a strong support for the combined implementation of the suggested interventions in pilot sites was given.

关键词： 气候变化   农业影响   研究进展  

摘要： 气候变化对农业影响的研究正成为气候变化经济学前沿研究的重要领域。由于分析气候变化对农业和其他部门影响的经济学探索是过去十多年新兴的一项研究,因而无论在理论方法、模型设计、数据使用还是在研究结果上均存在较大争议。本文旨在对该领域相关研究的理论框架和模型方法提供一个较为全面的总结和归纳。本文首先介绍了一个分析气候变化对农业影响的基本经济学理论框架和模型。在此基础上,本文梳理了气候变化对农业影响的计量经济研究方法的最新进展,通过拓展基本模型和假设,探讨了不同模型方法的差异和特点,分析了导致不同研究结果存在较大差异的原因。本文发现,是否考虑农民的适应行为是气候变化对农业影响的研究结果争议的焦点。最后,本文提出了实证研究气候变化对农业影响面临的主要问题和挑战。

关键词： 广东   气候变化   影响  

摘要： 为了合理利用气候资源,趋利避害,保障粮食及特色作物安全生产,利用广东省9个代表气象站1971—2010年气象资料,分析了近40年热量、降水及光照资源时空变化特征。研究表明,广东各地平均气温1976年以后呈较明显的上升趋势,上升突变年出现在1989年,2007年以后为下降趋势;四季气温亦呈上升趋势,冬季及秋季最为明显,由北到南,冬季增幅最多,夏季变化最小;1990年以后热量资源增加显著。各地年平均降水量呈减少趋势,由北到南,冬季、春季降水量减少,夏季、秋季增多。潜在蒸散于20世纪80年代最低,21世纪初期最高,冬季增幅最为明显。日照百分率呈下降趋势。气候变化对作物生长、产量品质、种植布局及干旱等气象灾害均带来一定影响。

关键词： 气候变化   农业发展   影响因素   应对措施  

摘要： 气候问题是全球性环境问题,而农业是受气候变化影响最深的行业。农业是我国经济发展的基础,气候的不断变化给农业发展带来了很多不利的因素,严重影响了国家经济的可持续发展。当前全球变暖,极端气候现象增多,襄阳市宜城市的气候也受到了一定程度的影响,给本地的农作物生长、农业的发展带来了很多的阻碍。文中,笔者结合宜城市的平均气温和降水量等数据,分析气候变化对本市农业发展的影响,并研究气候变化对农业生产的应对途径。