关键词： 气候变化   旱作农业   影响   解决途径  

摘要： 通过分析气候变化对西北半干旱区旱作农业生产的影响、当前生产中应用的主要抗旱技术、提高粮食生产能力的机理等,以探索应对未来气候变化下西北旱作农业发展的技术途径,为推动未来旱作农业发展、保障粮食安全提供参考。结果表明,未来气候变化对西北半干旱区作物生长的影响主要有3方面:一是气温升高导致作物产量降低,品质下降;二是降水量和降水格局变化引发的作物干旱/洪涝问题;三是极端气候引发的气象灾害导致粮食生产波动。为适应或缓解上述不利影响,提高有限降水利用效率、优化土壤结构、提升土壤肥力、增强作物-土壤体系抵御环境变化的能力,缓解未来气候变化对西北半干旱区粮食生产的影响,应主要从3方面入手:(1)覆盖聚集降水,提高土壤蓄水保墒能力,改变土壤水分分配,调控土壤水分运移并提高降水入渗效率,从而"调水"以适应降水变化;(2)土壤培肥优化土壤结构、改良土壤理化性质,从而"改土"提高作物-土壤体系对环境变化的适应能力以应对未来气候变化,稳定旱作农业生产力;(3)通过"调水"和"改土"技术集成,形成"水土协调"技术体系以综合应对未来气候变化,减缓未来气候变化对西北半干旱区粮食生产的不利影响。

关键词： 农业气象灾害   气候变化   农业生产   影响  

摘要： 选取辽宁省28个站点1970—2009年温度、降水等气候资料,分析研究辽宁省近40 a的温度、降水变化,定量评价气候变化对辽宁省农业气象灾害的影响,并提出应对气候变化对辽宁农业气象灾害影响的措施,以降低农业气象灾害给农业生产造成的损失。

关键词： qualitative approach   cross-sectoral approach   land use conflict   land use governance   Germany  

摘要： Adaptation and mitigation measures are important in dealing with climate change impacts on agriculture, forestry and water management. Stakeholders have an important role to play in coping with climate change at the regional scale, so it is important to identify which measures they are aware of and which they have implemented. This paper describes the regional adaptation and mitigation measures taken by stakeholders in northern Germany and the connections between the sectoral measures and the spatial scales involved. The study finds that adaptation measures have either been implemented or chosen at the regional scale;that adaptation plays an important role at the regional scale whilst mitigation measures are almost non-existent;that water-related issues link the land use sectors examined;and that experts clearly view the national level as the appropriate level for policy makers to exert political influence on measures relating to climate change.

关键词： Agriculture   Bangladesh   Bottom-up model   Climate change   Land use change   Mitigation potentials  

摘要： In Bangladesh, 53 % of domestic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions were generated in the agriculture and other land use sectors in 2005. However, no specified measures for climate change mitigation have thus far been designated nationally in these sectors. In this paper, we quantified future greenhouse gas emissions and mitigation potentials through 2025 by using the Agriculture Forestry and Other Land Use Bottom-up model to clarify cost-effective technological options under different mitigation cost scenarios. We found that (1) GHG emissions of 69.1 MtCO(2)eq (Million tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) equilivalent)/year will be generated from the agriculture and land use sectors in 2025 in a baseline scenario, (2) a reduction of 32 MtCO(2)-eq/year (a 47 % reduction from baseline emissions) is possible at a cost of as much as US$10/tCO(2)-eq in 2025, (3) in agriculture, an emissions reduction of 10 MtCO(2)-eq/year could be achieved by implementing midseason drainage in rice cultivation, generating bioenergy from livestock manure, and replacing roughage with concentrated feed at mitigation cost of US$10/tCO(2)-eq in 2025, and (4) in the other land use sector, a mean annual mitigation potential of 6.5 MtCO(2)-eq/year can be achieved with a total mitigation cost of less than US$10 million (52 % of baseline land use emissions in 2025).

关键词： Climate change   Policies   Adaptation measures   Institutional transformation   Collaboration   Capacity building   CEE and CIS countries  

摘要： This paper explores the challenges of institutional transformation in agriculture countries of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), and their consequences for adaptation planning. We review key policy and planning documents and processes in CEE and CIS countries and conduct a series of interviews with key experts to analyse trends relevant for adaptation planning in the context of institutional transformation in three countries (Slovakia, Ukraine, and Tajikistan;total number of interviews 159). Our outcomes indicate that adaptation is not perceived as an important priority. Rather, two thirds of the respondents suggested their focusing on ensuring stable land use and ownership and support for infrastructure. The results also show that the importance of national level leadership in adaptation was not supported with regional and local agencies thought as potential key leaders in adaptation. Also, compared to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the European Union (EU) -15 countries of early adaptors (analysed in our earlier paper in this series), the focus in CEE and CIS countries on adaptation is sectorial, instead of looking at the role of agriculture in supporting wider societal needs. There is also limited integration and cooperation between researchers, policy-makers and other stakeholders in adaptation planning, a characteristic that played a key role in early adaptors' adaptation efforts. Finally, our findings imply that the CEE and CIS countries need to develop institutional capabilities at the regional and local level, as well as integrate adaptation actions with on-going efforts of improving the agricultural sector, while accounting for the dynamic nature of property rights, particularly the recent changes in land tenure.

关键词： Adaptation   Climate change   Hydro-economic modelling   Impact assessment   Irrigation   Water management  

摘要： Recent research has demonstrated the multidimensional and multi-scalar nature of climate change, evidencing the need to develop integrated tools for the analysis of impacts and adaptation. This research presents a hydro-economic model of the Middle-Guadiana basin, Spain, to assess potential effects of climate change on irrigated agriculture and options for adaptation. It combines a farm-based economic optimisation model with the hydrologic model WEAP, and represents the socio-economic, agronomic and hydrologic systems in a spatially-explicit manner covering all dimensions and scales relevant to climate change. Simulated scenarios include a severe A2 climate change scenario up to 2070, two policy-based adaptation scenarios, and autonomous adaptation. Results show that climate change may impact severely irrigation systems reducing water availability and crop yields, and increasing irrigation water requirements. The risk faced by farmers is determined by technology and water use efficiency but also by spatial location and decisions made in neighbouring irrigation areas. The analysis of adaptation strategies underscores the role of current EU water policy in facilitating adaptation. Overall, the applied framework proved to be a useful tool for supporting water and climate change policy-making. It contributes to improve understanding about potential impacts of climate change, multi-scale vulnerability and the scope for adaptation. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://***/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

关键词： Climate change   Agriculture   Adaptation   Power-over   Preference shaping   National adaptation plans  

摘要： Questions of equity, justice, and fairness in the international agricultural adaptation regime have emerged in recent years, prompting interest in regime power dynamics. Here, a three-dimensional conceptual framework of 'power as domination' is applied to the UNFCCC adaptation regime. We argue that this 'power-over' framing is an important lens through which to view adaptation, a field dominated by 'power-to', capacity-based constructs. The framework distinguishes between power-over manifesting through decision-making, agenda setting and preference shaping. Through a literature review we demonstrate that first and second dimension behavioral views of power-over fail to account for the subtle ways in which the interests and preferences of smallholder farmers are unknowingly shaped and restricted within the regime. Potential sources of third dimension preference shaping power are explored in a survey with high-level decision makers involved in National Adaptation Plans (NAP) development in seven countries. The results suggest that several inter-related features of the international agriculture adaptation regime collectively contribute to the shaping of interests and preferences of smallholders: prevailing discourses of uncertainty and the perceived limited capacity of smallholders;the resulting privileged status of 'expert' decision makers;the predominance of neoliberal development rationalities;and systemic biases resulting from the nation state as the principle unit of UNFCCC negotiation. These forces lie beyond the explanatory scope of first and second dimensions of power-over and help to explain why stakeholder engagement in adaptation decision making remains superficial in nature and why adaptation responses in agriculture can be considered 'common and non-differentiated'. We argue for increased awareness of third dimension manifestations and impacts of power in adaptation literature to facilitate the improved participation of marginalized stakeholders in UNFCCC

关键词： climate change   impact   rain-fed farming   solutions   影响   旱作农业   气候变化   解决途径   Language of Keywords: English   Chinese  

摘要： The impact of climate change on the agriculture production in semi-arid areas of Northwest, the major drought-resistant technology, the mechanism of increasing grain production were analyzed to explore technical solutions to retort the future climate change, future development of rainfed agriculture, and provide reference for food security. The results showed that the impact of future climate change on crop growth had main three aspects: Firstly, higher temperatures resulted in lower crop yield and quality decline; Secondly, changes in precipitation and precipitation patterns resulted in drought/flooding problems; Thirdly, meteorological disasters caused by extreme weather lead to fluctuations of food production. To adapt or mitigate these adverse effects, increase use efficiency of limited rainfall, optimize soil structure, improve soil fertility, enhance withstanding environmental change ability of crop-soil system, mitigate the impact of future climate change on food production in semi-arid region of Northwest China, the mainly solutions were:（1）Covering gathered precipitation, improve the ability to accumulate soil moisture, change the distribution of soil moisture, regulate the migration and improve the infiltration of precipitation, thus “adjusting water”to adapt to precipitation changes;（2）Optimizing soil structure, physical and chemical properties by soil fertilization, thus “regulating soil”to improve the ability of crop-soil system against to environmental changes, in order to stabilize productivity of rainfed agriculture;（3）Integrate“adjusting water”and“regulating soil”technology, forming technical system of“coordination of water and soil”to comprehensively response to future climate change, mitigate the adverse impact of future climate change on food production in semi-arid region of Northwest, China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

关键词： rainfed agriculture   water balance   cropping season   water deficit   Comoe basin   Ivory Coast  

摘要： The objective of this study is to evaluate the impact of climate change on the hydrological balance of the Comoe basin, an area of rainfed agriculture. Frequency analysis of cropping seasons, with estimation of cumulative water deficit through a daily water balance simulation (1950-2000), was used to explore the impact of variation in climate conditions on the cropping season. The performance indicators show an uneven evolution of agroclimatic potential: in a unimodal regime centred on the north of the basin, the cropping season duration, which did not change significantly, is consistent with the small changes in onset and end dates to that season;however, the cumulative water deficit increased from 750 mm to more than 850 mm. In contrast, in the bimodal regime, the western fringe, while less affected by both the recession and the rainfall deficit, undergoes an unusually short duration of cropping season. Thus, the second cropping season no longer lasts 90 days and seems less compatible with some cropping cycles. Such drought could increase the risk in annual cereal production without, however, being a leading limiting factor.