关键词： 气候变化   粮食安全   性别平等  

摘要： 气候环境变化使得不确定性因素在农业生产中频繁出现,为了达到农业生产目标,当前在发展中国家中流行采用基于参与国际贸易的方式来克服粮食短缺问题。文章研究目的是探讨农业生产者如何影响粮食安全,对往年文献中应对气候变化和粮食安全关系的研究提出不同意见,并引用农业推广项目方法来应对这些挑战。针对有关农业产量增长、粮食安全和气候变化影响因素的描述,文章还涉及与农业产量增长息息相关的贫困和性别平等问题。贫困地区的农业生产者只能通过必要机制才能享受到全球农业贸易给他们带来的收益所得,针对性别平等问题的农业推广项目可以帮助他们应对气候环境变化带来的挑战。

关键词： Climate change   Adaptation policy   Eastern Africa   Agricultural production  

摘要： We estimate the production function for agricultural output in Eastern Africa incorporating climate variables disaggregated into growing and non-growing seasons. We find a substantial negative effect of within growing season variance of precipitation. We simulate predicted climate change for the region and find a resulting output reduction of between 1.2% and 4.5%. Our simulation also demonstrates substantial potential for economic benefits from mitigating the effects of within growing season precipitation variability through conventional technologies such as flexible planting and rainwater harvesting on the same scale as the potential loss from predicted climate change. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

关键词： Water supply   Agriculture -- Arizona   Climate change   Management of groundwater -- Law & legislation   Rivers -- Arizona  

摘要： The article offers the author's insights on the state of agriculture, rural needs and climate change in Arizona. Topics discussed include the effort of the state's population toward sustainable water supplies, reliance to various sources of water such as the Salt and Verde River system, the Colorado River and groundwater reserves, and the Groundwater Management Act of 1980 (GMA).

关键词： agriculture   United States   fast-switching  

摘要： Agricultural conservation practices on managed lands provide many environmental and societal benefits, such as improved water quality, improved habitat for wildlife, and retention of water for attenuation of flood and drought risks, in addition to sustaining agricultural production. Here, Hyberg et al talk about the rapidly changing climate which can have profound consequences on agriculture and rural communities.

关键词： Climate change adaptation   Decision making   Hydro-economic modeling   Multi-criteria analysis   Social network mapping   Spain's agriculture  

摘要： Climate change is already affecting many natural systems and human environments worldwide, like the semiarid Guadiana Basin in Spain. This paper illustrates a systematic analysis of climate change adaptation in the Guadiana irrigation farming region. The study applies a solution-oriented diagnostic framework structured along a series of sequential analytical steps. An initial stage integrates economic and hydrologic modeling to evaluate the effects of climate change on the agriculture and water sectors. Next, adaptation measures are identified and prioritized through a stakeholder-based multi-criteria analysis. Finally, a social network analysis identifies key actors and their relationships in climate change adaptation. The study shows that under a severe climate change scenario, water availability could be substantially decreased and drought occurrence will augment. In consequence, farmers will adapt their crops to a lesser amount of water and income gains will diminish, particularly for smallholder farms. Among the various adaptation measures considered, those related to private farming (new crop varieties and modern irrigation technologies) are ranked highest, whereas public-funded hard measures (reservoirs) are lowest and public soft measures (insurance) are ranked middle. In addition, stakeholders highlighted that the most relevant criteria for selecting adaptation plans are environmental protection, financial feasibility and employment creation. Nonetheless, the social network analysis evidenced the need to strengthen the links among the different stakeholder groups to facilitate the implementation of adaptation processes. In sum, the diagnostic framework applied in this research can be considered a valuable tool for guiding and supporting decision making in climate change adaptation and communicating scientific results.

关键词： Autonomous and planned adaptation   Rural development plan   eParticipation   Multinomial probit model  

摘要： There is an increasing call for agricultural water management to adapt to climate change, yet efforts in this direction often consider only the policy dimension, or planned adaptation perspective. However, it is crucial to include an assessment of farmers' autonomous adaptation into the design and evaluation of rural policy measures. Amongst others, this helps avoid doubling efforts and ensure the effectiveness of the policies proposed. Moreover, farmers are the primary receivers of climate-proofing agricultural policies. Hence, to maximise a policy's success, it is fundamental to include farmers in its design phases. Farmers autonomously react to changes and policies should build on ongoing efforts. This work, carried out in the Veneto Region of Italy, proved the advantages of approaching adaptation as a continuum between autonomous and planned, rather than addressing the two separately. We first collected farmers' perceptions of and adaptations to change through an online questionnaire. We then identified the major determinants of their choice to adapt through a multinomial probit model. We analysed farmers' expectations of effectiveness of five different adaptation options for water conservation, via an ad-hoc online decision support system tool, mDSSweb. Our work provided policy makers with information on how different typologies of farmers are (not) adapting their practices to climate change. We clearly identified which groups of farmers the policies should target first and with what type of support. Both policy makers and farmers reacted positively to our approach and expressed interest in up-scaling it to become more inclusive.

关键词： Climate change adaptation   Transformation   Adjustment   Turkey   Agriculture   Q-methodology  

摘要： There is an increased recognition and attention on human values with respect to their role in shaping climate change adaptation policies. Furthermore, as the recent literature suggests, values held by policy actors are centrally located in the debates linking adaptation to development. However, different values tend to give way to diverging adaptation policy preferences, which often appear as a dichotomy of adjustment (incremental change) versus transformation. This study enquires the assumptions and values in adaptation policy by using Q-methodology and advances value-based approach to adaptation policy with an empirical case from Turkey, a developing country with key vulnerabilities in its agricultural system. By exploring the narratives of 29 policy actors who participated in the making of Turkey's climate change adaptation strategy, the analysis suggests that assumptions regarding an economic growth-driven development agenda often shape adaptation concerns. Further analysis of the 4 emerging discourses (productivism, techno-managerialism, eco-localism, and authoritarianism) suggests that while discourses agree that the ultimate goal of adaptation is safeguarding a developmentalist vision in agriculture, they differ on the means and agents for reaching this goal. I argue that this divergence can enhance the transformative potential of adaptation by bringing "how," "for whom," and "why" questions back to policymaking. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

关键词： Agricultural land use diversity   Climate change   Agroecology   Socio-economic factors   Dynamic panel GMM estimator   Panel data   Bangladesh  

摘要： The paper examines the impacts of climate change, agroecology and socio-economic factors on agricultural land use diversity (ALUD) using a panel data of 17 regions of Bangladesh covering a 61 year period (1948-2008) by applying a dynamic panel GMM estimator. Results revealed that ALUD and total rainfall have actually increased @ 0.19% and 0.02% per year whereas variability in temperature has declined @ 0.06% with significant differences across agroecological zones (AEZs). Among the climatic factors, total rainfall significantly increases ALUD. ALUD is also significantly influenced by agroecological characteristics. ALUD is significantly higher in Ganges River Floodplains but lower in Meghna River Floodplains and Chittagong Coastal Plain. Among the socio-economic factors, ALUD increases significantly with increase in the prices of vegetables, jute and phosphate fertilizer and R&D investment. ALUD significantly decreases with increase in the prices of lentil, onion, sugarcane, nitrogen and potassium fertilizers and extension expenditure. Policy implications include price policies to improve vegetable and jute prices, stabilise/reduce fertilizer prices and investments in R&D to develop crops that are suitable for high rainfall areas as well as specific AEZs in order to promote ALUD in Bangladesh. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词： Semantic interoperability   Ontology engineering   Knowledge representation   Semantic web  

摘要： Agriculture is both highly dependent on water resources, and impacting on these resources. Regardless of advances in the area, the impacts of water scarcity and climatic changes on agriculture, as well as the impacts of agriculture on water resources, remain uncertain. Potentially, collaborative systems can support the management and information sharing of multifaceted and large scale data sources, providing valuable and indispensable information for research. However, these solutions rely on semantic interoperability, the construction of complex knowledge representation models, as well as information recovery. This work describes interoperability issues in the engineering process of the OntoAgroHidro, an ontology that represents knowledge about impacts of agricultural activities and climatic changes on water resources. The paper presents representative scenarios and questions, and discusses the reuse and integration of concepts using knowledge visualization techniques. Experiments on the information recovery scenario point out the potential and limitations of the OntoAgroHidro. (c) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

关键词： Climatic change   Cobb-Douglas production function model   India   Land productivity   State-wise panel  

摘要： The current study assessed the climate change impacts on land productivity of major food and non-food grain crops in India. We compiled panel data for 30 years (1980-2009) using fifteen crops across thirteen agriculture intensive states. The value of production for each crop is estimated by farm harvest price (at constant prices, 1993-1994). Aggregate value of production on per hectare land is regressed with different socio-economic and climatic factors using the Cobb-Douglas (C-D) production function model. Estimates based on Driscoll-Kraay standard errors and linear regression and correlated Panels Corrected Standard Errors (PCSEs) (Prais-Winsten) estimation indicate that land productivity decreases with increase in annual average maximum temperature. The study concludes that Indian policymakers need to increase more irrigation facilities and fertilizers for cultivation. Land productivity is positively associated with irrigation area, number of pump set and application of fertilizers on per hectare land. In brief, more irrigation facilities;recommended use of fertilizer;more investment in infrastructure;participation of more literate population in agricultural activities;government expenditure on agricultural and allied sectors, rural development, irrigation and flood control would be useful to mitigate the negative effect of climate change on agriculture and improve agricultural productivity (land productivity). Finally, our projected results based on simulation technique showed that climate change would cause a decline in land productivity by 48.63 percent by the year 2100 and loss of farmers' income in India.