关键词： REDD   Emissions   Vulnerability   Landscape   Ecosystem services   Livelihoods  

摘要： Adaptation and mitigation share the ultimate purpose of reducing climate change impacts. However, they tend to be considered separately in projects and policies because of their different objectives and scales. Agriculture and forestry are related to both adaptation and mitigation: they contribute to greenhouse gas emissions and removals, are vulnerable to climate variations, and form part of adaptive strategies for rural livelihoods. We assessed how climate change project design documents (PDDs) considered a joint contribution to adaptation and mitigation in forestry and agriculture in the tropics, by analyzing 201 PDDs from adaptation funds, mitigation instruments, and project standards [e.g., climate community and biodiversity (CCB)]. We analyzed whether PDDs established for one goal reported an explicit contribution to the other (i.e., whether mitigation PDDs contributed to adaptation and vice versa). We also examined whether the proposed activities or expected outcomes allowed for potential contributions to the two goals. Despite the separation between the two goals in international and national institutions, 37 % of the PDDs explicitly mentioned a contribution to the other objective, although only half of those substantiated it. In addition, most adaptation (90 %) and all mitigation PDDs could potentially report a contribution to at least partially to the other goal. Some adaptation project developers were interested in mitigation for the prospect of carbon funding, whereas mitigation project developers integrated adaptation to achieve greater long-term sustainability or to attain CCB certification. International and national institutions can provide incentives for projects to harness synergies and avoid trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation.

关键词： Water footprint (WF)   Agricultural policy assessment   Climate change   Adaptation   Crop yield   Mediterranean region  

摘要： Climate change significantly affects every day's human activities such as agriculture and tourism by altering the composition and parameters of global atmosphere over long period of time. In Greece, a substantial part of the national gross domestic product comes from agricultural production the efficiency (e.g. crop yield) of which mainly depends on adequacy and sufficiency of resources such as water and soil fertility. In this concept, the water footprint (WF) could be used as a monitoring indicator to evaluate applied agricultural schemes and potential adaptation measures in cultivated regions in Greece with respect to consumption of freshwater resources and deterioration of water receptors considering climate change scenarios. In the present paper, agricultural WF in two plains in Crete, Messara and Chania, are calculated in order to estimate the environmental impacts of the currently applied agricultural schemes on freshwater resources and soil productivity in the two plains. The analysis was based on a climate change scenario that has been developed up to 2100 to assess the effects of precipitation and temperature variability on crop yield and consumption of freshwater resources in the two plains. The results analysis showed that for all the crops in both Messara and Chania plains the two components of WF, blue and green have a substantial contribution to the overall WF of crops. However, the changes in mean annual temperature and precipitation as they are estimated in the examined climate change scenario may affect the evolution of blue and green WF till 2100 by alternating the source of consumed water between water reserves and rainfall. In both also Cretan plains is observed that an estimation of future water needs based on WF indicator could be obtained considering the particular climate scenario only for irrigated crops due to the similar trend that is followed by temperature and total WF. A similar estimation could not be made for rain-fed crops due to th

关键词： Symbiosis   Plant-microbe interactions   Mitigation   Agroecology   Climate change   Synthetic communities   GHGe  

摘要： The importance of increasing crop production while reducing resource inputs and land-use change cannot be overstated especially in light of climate change and a human population growth projected to reach nine billion this century. Mutualistic plant-microbe interactions offer a novel approach to enhance agricultural productivity while reducing environmental costs. In concert with other novel agronomic technologies and management, plant-microbial mutualisms could help increase crop production and reduce yield losses by improving resistance and/or resilience to edaphic, biologic, and climatic variability from both bottom-up and top-down perspectives. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

关键词： agricultural adaptation   perceptions   autonomous adaptation   climate change   climate variability   droughts impacts  

摘要： Climate change is recognised as one of the leading challenges affecting the performance of agriculture and the livelihood of people. Farmers are the hardest hit as they have to continuously respond to climatic variations. In order to understand farmers' perceptions of climate change and its impacts, and to identify adaptation needs, focus group discussions and semi-structured questionnaire surveys were carried out at the end of the south-west monsoon season in 2012 (Kharif cropping season in India). This helped to gather their immediate responses soon after the poor performance of south-west monsoon 2012. Khariff cultivation is locally known as 'Kuruvai' and is always under the influence of the south-west monsoon rainfall. Farmers' have perceived climate variability, and identified increasing temperature, delayed onset, intermittent dry spells and decreasing soil moisture as the critical factors affecting their cultivation. Some of them have started to adapt to these changes by cultivating only short-duration crops such as pulses, vegetables and flowers especially jasmine, but there is also a trend to put more land under fallow and abandoning the major cereal production. This study reveals that the farmers' perceptions are in accordance with the real trends analysis done on meteorological variables using Mann-Kendall test and Sens's slope estimator test, but not exactly matches with rainfall. Farmers have indicated their specific adaptation needs, a number of which could be incorporated into site-specific adaption strategies and policies.

关键词： Farmland   climate change   spillovers   spatial econometrics  

摘要： This paper estimates a Ricardian model of farmland value across the counties of the semiarid Southwestern United States. Compared to previous contributions, we focus on one climate zone and include the presence of extreme weather events and of farm subsidies in our analysis. We also control for heterogeneity and for various types of spillover effects. Once calibrated, the model is used to project changes due to future climate conditions. We find that the probability of a decrease is great in highland counties while an increase or decrease is equally probable in lowland counties where climate impacts farmland value less.

关键词： 气候变化   农业生产   人口分布   中原地区  

摘要： 农业的形成和发展是古代文明兴起的最重要的前提条件之一，世界上的文明古国无一不是建立在农业高度发展的基础之上，中国亦不例外。中国是粟作农业和稻作农业的重要起源地，两个农业体系相互交流与融合，共同推进了中国古代文明的诞生和演进。黄河流域的华夏文明是中国古代文明的核心，而其兴起和发展的摇篮则在中原地区，这与中原地区农业的起源和发展密不可分。因此，揭示中原地区古代农业的基本面貌和发展过程，对深入认识中华文明和社会发展的来龙去脉具有重要意义。目前，基于炭化植物遗存分析，中原地区古代农业发展的宏观图景已初步形成，但是早期阶段，即裴李岗-仰韶时期的农业结构特点、演变过程、不同类型遗址农作物种植的差异等问题尚不清楚。原因在于早期炭化植物遗存易溶蚀、难保存，以及区域系统植物考古研究的缺乏。在中原关键区域，如嵩山周边地区，选择不同类型遗址进行系统采样，利用多种植物考古方法提取植物遗存证据，是中原早期农业研究的重要途径。\n 目前在北方旱作农业的研究中，有关粟、黍比例的问题，存在同一遗址或区域，植硅体和炭化植物遗存分析结果相矛盾的现象，从而影响了对旱作农业结构的判断。粟、黍种子在炭化过程中保存下来的概率是否存在不同，进而导致植物考古统计分析出现误差，是解释上述矛盾的关键。利用炭化模拟实验复原粟、黍种子的炭化条件对解决这一问题具有重要意义。然而，目前的炭化模拟实验更多关注的是炭化过程中粟、黍颗粒形态、大小和结构特征的变化，粟、黍炭化的温度条件有无差别尚不清楚，还需要更多细致的工作和数据加以揭示。\n 农业的形成也是人类植物利用历史上的重大变革。旧石器时代晚期以来，人类植物生计从采集到农业生产的转变过程以及随后的农业发展情况，已在西亚地区得到了清晰的记录。近年来，随着植物考古数据的大量积累，为描绘中国古代农业形成过程中植物利用方式的演变进程提供了机会。收集已有植物考古数据，并进行定量化分析，是重建这一进程的主要方法。\n 农业的兴衰、环境的变化与人类文化变迁关系密切。目前，史前人类活动与气候变化关系的研究受到了极大关注，而随着考古碳十四概率密度方法的运用，国际学界已在重建史前人口规模及其与气候变化关系上取得许多进展。然而，这一方法很少用到中国的史前人口研究中，气候变化是否影响中国史前人口的发展也是不清楚的。建立集成性的中国考古碳十四数据库，利用概率密度方法对数据进行分析，并与气候曲线对比，是探讨人口变化及其与气候变化关系的重要方式。\n 本文在中原核心区—嵩山腹地的郑州地区选择位于不同地貌部位、不同规模的13处裴李岗-仰韶文化遗址进行系统采样，通过考古学文化和AMS14C测定确立年代框架，并以植硅体分析为主，结合炭化植物遗存分析，揭示了中原地区裴李岗-仰韶时期农业结构特点以及不同类型遗址农作物种植的差异，并且结合环境资料，探讨了气候变化与中原早期农业格局形成和发展之间的关系。通过设计不同的加热温度、时间和氧气条件，对现代粟和黍种子进行了炭化模拟实验，确定了粟和黍种子炭化的温度区间，探讨了炭化粟、黍形成条件的差异及原因。编汇了中国旧石器时代晚期到新石器时代中期的植物考古数据库，通过对数据的定量分析重建了史前植物利用的宏观发展进程。编录了我国考古遗址14C年代数据库，利用14C数据的总和概率密度分布，重建了区域至全国人口的长时间尺度变化，并探讨了人口变化与最近5万年气候变化的关联。得到以下几点结果与认识:\n 1、中原地区早期农业是在中国北方对禾草类尤其是黍族植物集约利用的宏观图景下发展起来的，而距今1万年前后对黍和粟两种小米的耕作和驯化奠定了中原地区早期农业的基础。\n 2、中原地区在裴李岗-仰韶文化时期(c.8000～5000a BP)均属于以黍为主的黍、粟、稻混作农业;相较于裴李岗时期，仰韶时期粟和稻的比例显著提高，标志着仰韶时期农作物多样化程度的加深以及农业种植结构的优化;裴李岗时期的农业生产属于采集经济之外辅助性的生产活动，到仰韶时期农业生产取代了野生植物采集成为主要的经济活动。\n 3、不同地貌单元和规模等级的遗址具有不同的农业格局:裴李岗时期，在平原地带和大型聚落为旱稻混耕，在台塬沟谷区和中小聚落为黍粟农业;仰韶时期，台塬沟谷区和中小聚落更侧重于黍的种植，平原地区和大型聚落中粟和稻的比例相对较高，但水稻耕作开始向中小聚落及沟谷地区扩散。这种差异可能与土壤、水分、耕作技术等因素有关。\n 4、中原地区裴李岗时期以黍为主的旱作农业，可能与北方早全新世相对较干的气候状况有关;距今8，000年前后，在全新世适宜期气候转暖变湿的背景下，稻作北传至中原旱作区，形成了最早的旱稻混耕模式，农业的扩展伴随着文化的融合。\n 5、根据目前的植硅体鉴定标准，中原地区裴李岗和仰韶时期发现的水稻植硅体均为驯化类型，

关键词： 农业生产   气候要素   变化特征   宝鸡市  

摘要： 为了研究陕西宝鸡市近50 a气候变化对农业生产的影响,选用宝鸡市11个气象站1961-2010年气温、降水量等气候要素资料统计分析,结果表明,宝鸡市年平均气温以0.238℃·10 a^(-1)气候倾向率上升,冬、春季平均气温上升趋势最快;年降水量以31.187 mm·10 a^(-1)的倾向率波动减少,春季和秋季降水量减少趋势最大。农业界限温度的初日明显提前,终日推迟,持续日数明显增多,积温显著增加,以日平均气温≥0℃和≥10℃的指标变化较明显。气候变暖使农业生产的不稳定性增加,产量波动加大。

关键词： 多哥   气候变化   农业经济   李嘉图模型  

摘要： 气候变化对农业的影响会极大地增加对粮食自给自足和减少贫穷目标的发展挑战。多哥，在其配置中，农业人口占总人口数的70％，产出占GDP总量的40％，但其农业严重依赖于天气条件。气候变化会使人口数目和经济状况更加脆弱。多哥农业部门的经济状况受气候变化的影响到何种程度。\n 本研究的目的是通过李嘉图模型来评估气候变化对多哥粮食农作物生产的影响和程度。借以可行的广义最小二乘方法(FGLS)和2000年到2011年期间的33个多哥自治州的面板数据，本研究使用辅助数据和变量，其中变量为生产、线性和二次气候变量（温度、降水）和生产领域。在Stata11分析后，研究表明，在多哥，气候条件的变化对农业生产有显著的影响。该模型首先建立了农业生产与气候变量（温度、降水）之间的关系。其次，分析了粮食农作物生产对这些气候变量的灵敏度。研究结果表明，降雨量增加1毫米将会导致粮食农作物产量增加122吨。然而，温度增加1℃将会导致产量减少30969吨（其他条件不变）。为了适应气候变化和增加粮食农作物的生产力，本研究提出了一些相关建议。