关键词： 气候变化   灌溉需水   石羊河流域   SDSM  

摘要： 根据石羊河流域及周边共11个气象站点1959—2012年的逐日气象资料,利用大气环流模型Had CM3的输出和SDSM统计降尺度模型,生成A2、B2两种排放情景下未来石羊河流域各站点2020 s,2050 s和2080 s的ET0和降水日值;使用作物系数法,扣除有效降雨量,计算现状和未来不同作物净灌溉定额、流域净灌溉需水量和耗水量;应用反距离加权插值法(IDW)研究作物净灌溉定额的空间分布特征。结果表明,石羊河流域小麦、玉米、甜椒、棉花、胡麻和苹果的多年平均作物净灌溉定额都呈现从西南到东北递增的趋势,预测未来气候变化情景下,6种典型作物净灌溉定额呈增加趋势;多年平均流域净灌溉需水量为12.65×108m3,多年平均耗水量为15.42×10~8m^3;在种植结构维持现状条件下,预计2020 s,2050 s和2080 s,在Had CM3模式的A2情景下净灌溉需水量分别为13.45×108m3、15.02×10~8m^3、16.94×10~8m^3,耗水量分别为15.53×10~8m^3、16.65×10~8m^3、18.18×108m^3,B2情景下净灌溉需水量分别为13.55×108m3、14.63×10~8m^3、15.51×10~8m^3,耗水量分别为15.56×10~8m^3、16.34×10~8m^3、17.00×108m3~,未来流域净灌溉需水量和耗水量都呈明显上升趋势,且A2情景下的上升幅度大于B2情景。石羊河流域的农业灌溉需水在未来将持续增加,2050 s之后增加趋势更为显著。

关键词： 气候变化   农业生产   累积距平   滑动t-检验法   四川昭觉  

摘要： 利用昭觉县1971—2014年逐日气温、降水量、日照时数和无霜期日数等气象资料,采用多项式拟合、累积距平、变差系数、滑动t-检验和Mann-Kendall法等方法进行统计分析,结果表明:昭觉县44年年平均气温呈逐渐上升趋势,年气温变化倾向率为0.18℃/10年;年降水量线性变化并不明显,降水日数呈减少趋势,但强降水日数增多;年日照时数线性增多趋势明显;20世纪90年代气温、降水量和日照时数均出现突变现象。90年代后期以来气温持续上升,其中,春、秋2季升温趋势最为明显;冬、春季年降水量呈减少趋势,而夏、秋季呈增多趋势;受气候变化的影响,大春作物播种、出苗期延迟,对农作物产量和品质都有较大影响,农业气象灾害和病虫害呈增多趋势。

关键词： 气候变化   外界干预   适应性政策   农业生产  

摘要： 基于新疆于田县15个乡(镇)1200名农户的调查数据,在纠正气候变化适应性政策参与变量和气候变化适应性政策类型变量可能存在内生性偏误后,采用三阶段回归分析模型综合检验了以政府为主导核心的外界干预适应性政策对农业生产的影响。研究结果表明:农户的决策过程和决策类型同时影响着生产的投入和产出。而不同的社会经济变量、空间环境变量和实物资本变量对农户生产要素支出和产出也有着显著性影响。适应性政策效果与农户的选择行为、个体特征、所在区位、资本投入等关系紧密,是影响农业投入与产出的重要因素。政府应该保证农户可获得足够的资金支持,继续加强水利等基础设施建设,加强农户的教育和培训力度。积极推进上述外界干预适应性政策有助于提高农户应对各种极端自然灾害和气候变化的适应能力和农业生产水平。

关键词： 气候变化   农业气象灾害   病虫害   影响  

摘要： 近年来,在气候变化的影响下,农业气象灾害发生频繁、危害加剧,尤其是极端气候频发,严重威胁着我国的农业生产安全。气候变化也对病虫害产生了严重的影响,全球性的气候变暖增加了农业病虫害的发生几率、危害范围和危害程度,加大了病虫害防治工作的难度。该文主要分析研究了气候变化对中国农业气象灾害与病虫害的相关影响。

关键词： 全球气候变化   农业生产   可持续发展   弱性   渔业   水利   人类安全   粮食系统  

摘要： 人类的活动正在以前所未有的速度改变全球环境，人类面临着一系列复杂和相互关联的挑战，这些挑战对地方、区域和全球发展都有制约，对人类安全与政治也有影响。大多数研究将全球气候变化和粮食系统结合在一起，探讨气候变化对农业生产的影响、农业对土地的使用、污染的影响和生物多样性；食物系统的交互关系等方面。

关键词： Hydropower   Irrigation   Reservoir resilience   System dynamics   Water resources  

摘要： Many (semi-) arid locations globally, and particularly islands, rely heavily on reservoirs for water supply. Some reservoirs are particularly vulnerable to climate and development changes (e.g. population change, tourist growth, hydropower demands). Irregularities and uncertainties in the fluvial regime associated with climate change and the continuous increase in water demand by different sectors will add new challenges to the management and to the resilience of these reservoirs. The resilience of vulnerable reservoirs must be studied in detail to prepare for and mitigate potential impacts of these changes. In this paper, a reservoir balance model is developed and presented for the Pedra e' Othoni reservoir in Sardinia, Italy, to assess resilience to climate and development changes. The model was first calibrated and validated, then forced with extensive ensemble climate data for representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, agricultural data, and with four socio-economic development scenarios. Future projections show a reduction in annual reservoir inflow and an increase in demand, mainly in the agricultural sector. Under no scenario is reservoir resilience significantly affected, the reservoir always achieves refill. However, this occurs at the partial expenses of hydropower production with implications for the production of renewable energy. There is also the possibility of conflict between the agricultural sector and hydropower sector for diminishing water supply. Pedra e' Othoni reservoir shows good resilience to future change mostly because of the disproportionately large basin feeding it. However this is not the case of other Sardinian reservoirs and hence a detailed resilience assessment of all reservoirs is needed, where development plans should carefully account for the trade-offs and potential conflicts among sectors. For Sardinia, the option of physical connection between reservoirs is available, as are alternative water supply measures. Tho

关键词： Organic farming   Nonfiction  

关键词： Crop yield modelling   Adaptation strategies   Irrigation   Mulching   Tomato   Wheat  

摘要： In Europe, there is concern that climate change will cause significant impacts around the Mediterranean. The goals of this study are to quantify the economic risk to crop production, to demonstrate the variability of yield by soil texture and climate model and to investigate possible adaptation strategies. In the Rio Mannu di San Sperate watershed, located in Sardinia (Italy) we investigate production of wheat, a rainfed crop. In the Chiba watershed located in Cap Bon (Tunisia), we analyze irrigated tomato production. We find, using the FAO model AquaCrop that crop production will decrease significantly in a future climate (2040-2070) as compared to the present without adaptation measures. Using "value-at-risk", we show that production should be viewed in a statistical manner. Wheat yields in Sardinia are modelled to decrease by 64% on clay barns, and to increase by 8% and 26% respectively on sandy loams and sandy clay barns. Assuming constant irrigation, tomatoes sown in August in Cap Bon are modelled to have a 45% chance of crop failure on loamy sands;a 39% decrease in yields on sandy clay loams;and a 12% increase in yields on sandy barns. For tomatoes sown in March;sandy clay loans will fail 81% of the time;on loamy sands the crop yields will be 63% less while on sandy barns, the yield will increase by 12%. However, if one assume 10% less water available for irrigation then tomatoes sown in March are not viable. Some adaptation strategies will be able to counteract the modelled crop losses. Increasing the amount of irrigation one strategy however this may not be sustainable. Changes in agricultural management such as changing the planting date of wheat to coincide with changing rainfall patterns in Sardinia or mulching of tomatoes in Tunisia can be effective at reducing crop losses. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

关键词： Odisha   Climate change   Agriculture   Net revenue   Ricardian approach  

摘要： The present study examines the climate sensitivity of the agricultural production of Odisha, a state at the east coast of India. The two climatic variables which have been taken for the study are temperature and rainfall. The study has adopted the Ricardian approach to assess the impact of climate change on the net revenue from agricultural production of Odisha. Panel regression model has been used to test the relationship between climate and other control variables on net revenue. Results of the study reveal that climate has significant influence on the agricultural production of Odisha. The possible future climate scenarios are found to have negative impact on the net revenue from agricultural production of Odisha towards the end of twenty-first century, which call for some policy attentions.

关键词： Agriculture   Climate Change   Food Security   Mitigation  

摘要： Understanding the complexity among food security, climate change and agriculture is a challenging topic. Projected growth rate of world population suggests a chaotic scenario in terms of food and water scarcity. This study reviews the major contributions by the scientific community in regards to effects on agriculture and food security as a result of climate change. The main conclusions are that the implementation of effective policies and mitigation measures for the effects of climate change are required to guide actions for a sustainable agriculture. The need for an intensive agriculture along with adaptation measures for human nourishment is necessary. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]