关键词： Climate change adaptation   Transformation   Adjustment   Turkey   Agriculture   Q-methodology  

摘要： There is an increased recognition and attention on human values with respect to their role in shaping climate change adaptation policies. Furthermore, as the recent literature suggests, values held by policy actors are centrally located in the debates linking adaptation to development. However, different values tend to give way to diverging adaptation policy preferences, which often appear as a dichotomy of adjustment (incremental change) versus transformation. This study enquires the assumptions and values in adaptation policy by using Q-methodology and advances value-based approach to adaptation policy with an empirical case from Turkey, a developing country with key vulnerabilities in its agricultural system. By exploring the narratives of 29 policy actors who participated in the making of Turkey's climate change adaptation strategy, the analysis suggests that assumptions regarding an economic growth-driven development agenda often shape adaptation concerns. Further analysis of the 4 emerging discourses (productivism, techno-managerialism, eco-localism, and authoritarianism) suggests that while discourses agree that the ultimate goal of adaptation is safeguarding a developmentalist vision in agriculture, they differ on the means and agents for reaching this goal. I argue that this divergence can enhance the transformative potential of adaptation by bringing "how," "for whom," and "why" questions back to policymaking. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

关键词： Agricultural land use diversity   Climate change   Agroecology   Socio-economic factors   Dynamic panel GMM estimator   Panel data   Bangladesh  

摘要： The paper examines the impacts of climate change, agroecology and socio-economic factors on agricultural land use diversity (ALUD) using a panel data of 17 regions of Bangladesh covering a 61 year period (1948-2008) by applying a dynamic panel GMM estimator. Results revealed that ALUD and total rainfall have actually increased @ 0.19% and 0.02% per year whereas variability in temperature has declined @ 0.06% with significant differences across agroecological zones (AEZs). Among the climatic factors, total rainfall significantly increases ALUD. ALUD is also significantly influenced by agroecological characteristics. ALUD is significantly higher in Ganges River Floodplains but lower in Meghna River Floodplains and Chittagong Coastal Plain. Among the socio-economic factors, ALUD increases significantly with increase in the prices of vegetables, jute and phosphate fertilizer and R&D investment. ALUD significantly decreases with increase in the prices of lentil, onion, sugarcane, nitrogen and potassium fertilizers and extension expenditure. Policy implications include price policies to improve vegetable and jute prices, stabilise/reduce fertilizer prices and investments in R&D to develop crops that are suitable for high rainfall areas as well as specific AEZs in order to promote ALUD in Bangladesh. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词： Semantic interoperability   Ontology engineering   Knowledge representation   Semantic web  

摘要： Agriculture is both highly dependent on water resources, and impacting on these resources. Regardless of advances in the area, the impacts of water scarcity and climatic changes on agriculture, as well as the impacts of agriculture on water resources, remain uncertain. Potentially, collaborative systems can support the management and information sharing of multifaceted and large scale data sources, providing valuable and indispensable information for research. However, these solutions rely on semantic interoperability, the construction of complex knowledge representation models, as well as information recovery. This work describes interoperability issues in the engineering process of the OntoAgroHidro, an ontology that represents knowledge about impacts of agricultural activities and climatic changes on water resources. The paper presents representative scenarios and questions, and discusses the reuse and integration of concepts using knowledge visualization techniques. Experiments on the information recovery scenario point out the potential and limitations of the OntoAgroHidro. (c) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

关键词： Climatic change   Cobb-Douglas production function model   India   Land productivity   State-wise panel  

摘要： The current study assessed the climate change impacts on land productivity of major food and non-food grain crops in India. We compiled panel data for 30 years (1980-2009) using fifteen crops across thirteen agriculture intensive states. The value of production for each crop is estimated by farm harvest price (at constant prices, 1993-1994). Aggregate value of production on per hectare land is regressed with different socio-economic and climatic factors using the Cobb-Douglas (C-D) production function model. Estimates based on Driscoll-Kraay standard errors and linear regression and correlated Panels Corrected Standard Errors (PCSEs) (Prais-Winsten) estimation indicate that land productivity decreases with increase in annual average maximum temperature. The study concludes that Indian policymakers need to increase more irrigation facilities and fertilizers for cultivation. Land productivity is positively associated with irrigation area, number of pump set and application of fertilizers on per hectare land. In brief, more irrigation facilities;recommended use of fertilizer;more investment in infrastructure;participation of more literate population in agricultural activities;government expenditure on agricultural and allied sectors, rural development, irrigation and flood control would be useful to mitigate the negative effect of climate change on agriculture and improve agricultural productivity (land productivity). Finally, our projected results based on simulation technique showed that climate change would cause a decline in land productivity by 48.63 percent by the year 2100 and loss of farmers' income in India.

关键词： 气候变化   农业产值   水稻产量   经济分析  

摘要： 全球气候变化已成为公认的事实,气候变暖为其主要变化特征,并呈蔓延和加剧趋势。这给我国经济可持续发展带来严峻考验,因此,稳定生产、保障我国经济安全成当务之急。而农业由于其生长属性的特殊性,与其他产业相比,其产量不仅受技术、品种因素影响,气候因素也是一个关键影响因素,这更加剧了农业生产的不稳定性。因此,实证分析气候变化对我国农业的影响,不仅对客观评价过去并预测未来气候变化对我国农业生产和粮食产量的影响具有极其重要的现实意义,也有助于中国农业部门制定缓解并适应气候变化的政策,还为气候变化大背景下的农产品价格波动和粮食安全问题提供经济基础。在此背景下,本文基于国家气象中心160个站点数据和国家统计局的相关数据。在已有研究的基础上,首先对气候变化特征和中国农业产值及其发展现状特征进行简要描述,并针对气象灾害对农业影响进行简单定量分析;然后从气候变化对农业产值影响和气候变化对水稻产量影响两个方面来分析气候变化对中国农业的影响,以期为政府和农户促进农业生产、保障粮食安全提供政策参考。论文主体分为六章。第一章绪论,介绍研究背景和研究内容,阐述本文的研究思路、研究方法和数据来源,并对论文的可能创新之处和不足之处进行了探讨。第二章理清相关定义及理论,介绍了国内外关于气候变化的研究现状,以期为本文研究提供理论基础和方法借鉴。第三章主要对气候变化特征、中国农业产值及其发展现状特征进行了统计描述,对气象灾害的影响进行定量分析,分析发现,农业生产尤其是水稻生产受气温和降水变化影响大,旱灾及水灾是影响农业生产最主要的农业气象灾害;我国农业总产值及粮食产量呈增长趋势,水稻产量是粮食产量的主体组成部分;气象灾害对我国农业具有负面影响。第四章运用C-D生产函数模型分析了气候变化对中国农业产值的影响,研究结果表明,气候变化对我国农业总产值有显著影响,且呈倒U型关系;农作物总播种面积、化肥投入、技术进步是影响农业总产值的重要因素,机械投入和劳动力投入对农业总产值有负面影响。第五章主要通过构建超越对数生产函数模型研究气候变化对水稻产量的影响,分析结果表明,温度和降水、播种面积、机械投入、技术进步对水稻产量有显著的促进作用,而化肥投入和劳动力投入对水稻产量的影响为负。第六章主要对论文研究的结论进行梳理,并有针对性地提出相应的对策建议。

关键词： 广西   气候   变化   农业  

摘要： 农业是国民经济的基础,气候是影响农业生产的重要决定因素,气候变化对农业所带来的不利影响,特别是极端天气气候诱发的自然灾害将会造成农业生产的波动、危及粮食安全、社会的稳定和经济的可持续发展.在全球气候变化的大背景下,农业气候受其影响很大,本文详细介绍了气候变化对广西农业生产的影响.

关键词： 农业气候资源变化   北疆垦区   棉花   适宜性   气候产量   相关  

摘要： 棉花与气候条件关系密切,由于地域和年际的差异,气候条件变化很大,对棉花产量和品质会产生很大的影响。本文利用北疆垦区1961～2015年的气象资料,采用气候倾向率、累积距平、M-K趋势分析和突变检测等方法,分析了近55年来光、温、水资源的变化特征,以及1981～2015年的热量变化对宜棉区、次宜棉区棉花品种种植适宜性的影响和棉花气候产量与各气象要素的相关关系,结果表明:（1）1961～2015年北疆垦区宜棉区农业气候资源为显著增多趋势,平均气温、平均最高气温、平均最低气温、降水量、日照时数的气候倾向率依次为0.4℃/10a、0.1℃/10a、0.7℃/10a、10.0 mm/10a、36.2h/10a,发生突变的时间分别是1989年、1997年、1987年、1987年、2000年。突变后热量资源秋季、11月增加最多,降水资源夏季、6月增加最多,光照资源春季、3月增加最多。（2）1981～2015年宜棉区和次宜棉区热量资源总体为增加趋势,≥10℃积温、7月平均气温、无霜冻期和≥20℃积温的变化,次宜棉区的增速和增幅大于宜棉区,但突变时间晚于宜棉区。进入2000年以来,次宜棉区的各项分区气候指标已达到宜棉区的标准,而宜棉区热量条件更加丰富,因此棉花品种种植适宜性也发生了变化。（3）近35年,棉花生育时段（4月中旬10月上旬）平均气温增加了0.9℃,小于年平均气温的增幅（1.2℃）,其中热量的增加主要体现在棉花生育前期,降水量的增加主要是在棉花生育的中后期,日照时数的偏多则是在棉花生育前期的前半段和生育后期。（4）棉花气候产量与棉花生长季4～10月温度正相关;与降水量负相关,其中与7月降水量显著负相关,与9月降水量极显著负相关;与日照时数相关性不明显。（5）棉花气候产量与棉花生育时段蕾期的6月上旬平均气温、平均最高气温、平均最低气温和日照时数显著正相关;与花铃期的7月下旬最低气温和8月上旬最高气温显著正相关;与吐絮期的9月中旬平均气温、平均最高气温、平均最低气温显著正相关,与9月中旬降水量呈极显著负相关。（6）根据棉花生育时段各气象因子与棉花气候产量的相关关系,通过逐步回归的方法,建立了两个产量预测模型,拟合效果都较好。上述分析研究所得出的结论,可为北疆垦区植棉区合理利用气候资源,实现提质增效的“优棉”目标提供科学依据。

关键词： 气候变化   农业生产   应对措施  

摘要： 文章主要阐述了气候变化的特点、趋势及对农业生产产生的影响,并对此提出长远规划、减排、长期观测预防等积极应对措施。

关键词： 气候变化   农业经济发展   空间自相关   空间计量经济模型  

摘要： 近年来以气候变暖为主要特征的全球气候变化问题及其对社会经济的影响,日益受到社会各界的广泛关注。依赖于自然气候条件生产的农业对气候变化的影响更为敏感。我国是农业大国,人口众多,农业生产特别是粮食生产的稳定发展直接关系到社会的稳定和可持续发展。因此,深入研究气候变化对我国农业经济发展的影响具有重要意义。关于气候变化对农业的影响研究从小到微观作物生理影响和大到宏观粮食产量方面的研究已有很多。但多数都是从作物模型方面研究,鲜有文献侧重从农业经济发展自身的空间效应及空间计量经济视角进行探讨。本文通过分析气候变化的时空变化特征,农业经济增长的空间效应,将气候因子引入到空间计量经济模型中,来探究气候变化对我国农业经济增长影响的季节性和区域性差异。主要结论如下：(1)1979～2010年我国年及各季节平均气温均呈显著升温趋势,而全国整体降水量并没有显著变化趋势,两者在空间上均呈现出显著的区域性和季节性差异；(2)通过探索性数据分析表明,我国农业经济增长存在明显的空间集聚效应。高-高值集聚主要存在于我国中东部地区,低-低值集聚主要存在于西北地区；(3)空间计量模型结果表明：对于全国总体来说,气候变化主要是气温升高对农业生产的影响是不利的,降水变化并无显著影响；分地区来看,气温上升有利于我国华东、华中及东北农业经济发展,而对西南、西北、华北农业生产具有抑制作用；西南降水量减少及东北降水量增加更不利于农业产值的增加；而西北地区降水增加则能缓解气温上升对农业带来的不利影响。最后,在实证分析的基础上,针对气候变化在农业经济增长中的作用,提出了若干政策建议如：打破行政区划界限,与相邻地区协同发展；改善作物品种,增强农作物适应气候变化的能力；改善农业生产的基础设施,提高农业抗御自然灾害的能力等措施以缓解气候变化带来的不利影响。

关键词： Aquifer   Resource management   Drinking Water   Adaptations   Potable Water   Climate change   Climate   Mass transport   Resource development   Agriculture   Groundwater recharge   Climate models   Nitrate transport   Numerical simulations   Groundwater quality   Aquifer systems   Groundwater flow   Groundwater resources   Climatic conditions   Nitrates   Simulation Analysis   Climates   Agricultural Practices   Aquifer Systems   Adaptation   Groundwater   Groundwater Movement  

摘要： Nitrate (N-NO3) concentration in groundwater, the sole source of potable water in Prince Edward Island (PEI, Canada), currently exceeds the 10 mg L-1 (N-NO3) health threshold for drinking water in 6% of domestic wells. Increasing climatic and socio-economic pressures on PEI agriculture may further deteriorate groundwater quality. This study assesses how groundwater nitrate concentration could evolve due to the forecasted climate change and its related potential changes in agricultural practices. For this purpose, a tridimensional numerical groundwater flow and mass transport model was developed for the aquifer system of the entire Island (5660 km(2)). A number of different groundwater flow and mass transport simulations were made to evaluate the potential impact of the projected climate change and agricultural adaptation. According to the simulations for year 2050, N-NO3 concentration would increase due to two main causes: (1) the progressive attainment of steady-state conditions related to present-day nitrogen loadings, and (2) the increase in nitrogen loadings due to changes in agricultural practices provoked by future climatic conditions. The combined effects of equilibration with loadings, climate and agricultural adaptation would lead to a 25 to 32% increase in N-NO3 concentration over the Island aquifer system. The change in groundwater recharge regime induced by climate change (with current agricultural practices) would only contribute 0 to 6% of that increase for the various climate scenarios. Moreover, simulated trends in groundwater N-NO3 concentration suggest that an increased number of domestic wells (more than doubling) would exceed the nitrate drinking water criteria. This study underlines the need to develop and apply better agricultural management practices to ensure sustainability of long-term groundwater resources. The simulations also show that observable benefits from positive changes in agricultural practices would be delayed in time due to the