关键词： Social resilience   Vulnerability   Adaptive capacity   Trust   Resource dependency   Diversification   Transformation  

摘要： Climate change is altering the productivity of natural resources with far-reaching implications for agriculture. In some instances, the scale and nature of the likely impacts means that transformations of function or structure of agriculture and/or agricultural enterprises will be required if communities dependent on agriculture are to be sustained. However, industry-wide transformations are unlikely to be supported unless individual primary producers have sufficient capacity to undergo transformational change. We look at: (i) the extent to which primary producers in Australia would be willing to transform, (ii) the extent that transformational capacity is likely to exist within producers, and (iii) the common attributes of producers with high levels of transformational capacity. We conducted a telephone survey of 195 primary producers (response rate 59%) across livestock, cropping and mixed enterprises across five national transects on the Australian continent with a high to low rainfall gradient. About half of the sample (55%) suggested that their land would be suitable for diversification and 45% would consider land-use change. These producers were more likely to come from a dry region rather than a wet region, came from an already mixed production enterprise, were more likely to irrigate and have completed university or a trade. These producers were also more likely to have a higher transformational capacity, particularly in their level of interest in adapting to the future. Across our sample, 23% had high levels of transformational capacity, whilst nearly half (45%) had either low or extremely low capacity to implement such change. Producers with a higher capacity were more likely to have a mixed enterprise, an internal locus of control, and higher levels of trust in networks, government, researchers, and agronomists and in self. Our results provide some important insights into what makes some producers more successful or able to transform than others. Investme

关键词： Adaptive capacity   climate change   exposure   vulnerability  

摘要： It is imperative to understand the effects of climate change on household members and the vulnerability level in and across agricultural households for India in general, and for eastern coastal part of the country in particular. This study covers primary data from 150 households from 2 blocks of Kendrapara district in Odisha. The household level unit of analysis is policy driven and follows the IPCC model on Vulnerability Analysis and Climate Change Adaptation Research. The model is expanded to include the livelihood strategies of the households, in order to empirically assess their vulnerability and adaptive responses. This study uses an econometric model on household vulnerability and adaptive capacity of rural households. The results imply that access to credit facilities and experiences of the households in farming are important factors to improve farmers' adaptation to climate change.

关键词： 气候变化   农业生产   因子分析   对策  

摘要： 气候变化会改变地区的温度、光照、水资源等,给农业的种植制度、管理方式、病害防治等多个方面带来不可忽视的影响。详细说明了气候变化对农业生产中各个因子的影响,提出了规避影响的措施,希望给相关的研究者提供一定的帮助。

关键词： 气候变化   Thornthwaite   Memorial模型   周期规律   时空特征   关中-天水经济区  

摘要： 以1960—2014年关中—天水经济区所辖七市一区气象站点逐日气温和降水量实测值为基础,利用Thornthwaite Memorial模型表征气候变化对农业生产造成的影响,综合运用气候倾向率、Morlet小波函数、MannKendall非参数检验法、Yamamoto分析、IDW空间插值对其时空变化特征进行诊断分析.结果表明:关天经济区近55年来,平均气候生产潜力为1 053.8 kg/(hm^2·a),呈逐年增加趋势,并于20世纪90年代发生弱突变.周期变化呈现大小尺度相互嵌套,与研究区降水周期变化基本一致.空间分布区域差异性明显,表现为南部高于中部、东部高于西部.降水是制约经济区农业发展的主导因素,增温和增湿均有利于区域农业生产,但增湿效应更为显著,此外,研究区气候暖湿化的趋势是促进农业发展的重要原因.

关键词： climate change   food security   sustainability  

摘要： Agriculture is now facing the perfect storm' of climate change, increasing costs of fertilizer and rising food demands from a larger and wealthier human population. These factors point to a global food deficit unless the efficiency and resilience of crop production is increased. The intensification of agriculture has focused on improving production under optimized conditions, with significant agronomic inputs. Furthermore, the intensive cultivation of a limited number of crops has drastically narrowed the number of plant species humans rely on. A new agricultural paradigm is required, reducing dependence on high inputs and increasing crop diversity, yield stability and environmental resilience. Genomics offers unprecedented opportunities to increase crop yield, quality and stability of production through advanced breeding strategies, enhancing the resilience of major crops to climate variability, and increasing the productivity and range of minor crops to diversify the food supply. Here we review the state of the art of genomic-assisted breeding for the most important staples that feed the world, and how to use and adapt such genomic tools to accelerate development of both major and minor crops with desired traits that enhance adaptation to, or mitigate the effects of climate change.

关键词： Adjustment costs   agricultural production   climate change   dynamic duality   Q11   Q54  

摘要： We construct a stochastic dynamic dual model to investigate the structural adjustment of two aggregate output and three aggregate input categories in US agriculture under stochastic climatic change. More than a century of national annual data (1910-2011) is used in the empirical analysis. No constraints on asset fixity are imposed. Results indicate that, with rational expectations, both output categories as well as all input categories exhibit quasi-fixity in response to market change and stochastic climate change. Crops adjust more than twice as fast as livestock-49% versus 20% of the way toward their long-run equilibrium in one year. Fertilizer adjusts most rapidly toward equilibrium levels (88% in one year), and capital adjusts most slowly (5% in one year). Labor oscillates rather than converging smoothly toward equilibrium;its distance from equilibrium is the same as if it adjusted 59% of the way toward its optimal level in one year. Failing to anticipate climate change dramatically slows the estimated rate of adjustment for two netputs and modestly speeds the rate for two others, thus likely increasing overall adjustment costs. Failing to account for uncertainty in anticipated climate change has little impact on adjustment rates.

关键词： Climate change   Yield variability   Vulnerability analysis   Adaptation   Loess Plateau   County level  

摘要： Understanding how the vulnerability of agricultural production to climate change can differ spatially has practical significance to sustainable management of agricultural systems worldwide. Accordingly, this study developed a conceptual framework to assess the agricultural vulnerability of 243 rural counties on the Chinese Loess Plateau. Indicators representing the climate/agriculture interface were selected to describe exposure and sensitivity, while stocks of certain capitals were used to describe adaptive capacity. A vulnerability index for each county was calculated and the spatial distribution was mapped. Results showed that exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity occur independently, with most contributing indicator values concentrated in a narrow range after normalization. Within the 49 most vulnerable counties, which together encompass 81 % of the vulnerability index range, 42 were characterized by high exposure and sensitivity but low adaptive capacity. The most vulnerable area was found to be located in the central northeast-southwest belt of Loess Plateau. Adaptation measures for both ecological restoration and economic development are needed and potential adaptation options need further investigation.

关键词： 2015   年   铜陵   气候   分析  

摘要： 为增强农业生产对气象灾害防御能力,提高气象为农服务水平,采用铜陵市 2015 年气象资料,分析气候变化对农业生 产的影响。结果表明:全年平均气温较常年同期偏高 0.4℃;年降水量为近 6 年来最多,较常年同期降水量偏多近 2 成,为 2010 年以来最多;日照时数为 1961 年以来最少,较常年同期偏少 19 个小时。主要气象灾害出现 8 月上旬末,受台风“苏迪 罗”影响,全市 7 个自动气象站雨量超过 100 毫米,极大风速值超过 8 级,受灾人口 15131 人,转移 1064 人,直接经济损失 1069 万元。

关键词： 气候变化   农业资源开发  

摘要： 发展农业生产,离不开气象科技,只有顺应天时,充分了解本地的气候资源及其分布规律,才能更合理地确定农、林、牧的发展比例,为促进大农业的全面发展提供科学依据;根据气候资源分布特点,才能提供作物引种,合理布局及建立稳产高产耕作制度的科学依据;只有进行农业气候适应性的研究和论证,才能确定调整种植结构,选建生产基地,发展名、优、特产品等。以黔西南州气候变化为例进行分析,提出气候变化对农业生产会带来一定的影响,气候资源是农业资源开发的重要内容,应该充分利用。

关键词： Conservation agriculture   Tropical   Soil organic carbon   Climate change mitigation   Carbon sequestration   Zero-tillage   Crop residues   Crop diversification   Nitrogen  

摘要： Conservation agriculture (CA), comprising minimum soil disturbance, retention of crop residues and crop diversification, is widely promoted for reducing soil degradation and improving agricultural sustainability. It is also claimed to mitigate climate change through soil carbon sequestration: we conducted a meta-analysis of soil organic carbon (SOC) stock changes under CA practices in two tropical regions, the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP) and Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), to quantify this. In IGP annual increases in SOC stock compared to conventional practice were between 0.16 and 0.49 Mg C ha(-1) yr(-1). In SSA increases were between 0.28 and 0.96 Mg C ha(-1) yr(-1), but with much greater variation and a significant number of cases with no measurable increase. Most reported SOC stock increases under CA are overestimates because of errors introduced by inappropriate soil sampling methodology. SOC increases require careful interpretation to assess whether or not they represent genuine climate change mitigation as opposed to redistribution of organic C within the landscape or soil profile. In smallholder farming in tropical regions social and economic barriers can greatly limit adoption of CA, further decreasing realistic mitigation potential. Comparison with the decreases in greenhouse gas emissions possible through improved management of nitrogen (N) fertilizer in regions such as IGP where N use is already high, suggests that this is a more effective and sustainable means of mitigating climate change. However the mitigation potential, and other benefits, from crop diversification are frequently overlooked when considering CA and warrant greater attention. Increases in SOC concentration (as opposed to stock) in near-surface soil from CA cause improvements in soil physical conditions;these are expected to contribute to increased sustainability and climate change adaptation, though not necessarily leading to consistently increased crop yields. CA should be promoted on the ba