关键词： land suitability   Analytical Hierarchy Process   Fuzzy Analysis   Fuzzy AHP   agriculture   climate  

摘要： Land suitability analysis is employed to evaluate the appropriateness of land for a particular purpose whilst integrating both qualitative and quantitative inputs, which can be continuous in nature. However, in agricultural modelling there is often a disregard of this contiguous aspect. Therefore, some parametric procedures for suitability analysis compartmentalise units into defined membership classes. This imposition of crisp boundaries neglects the continuous formations found throughout nature and overlooks differences and inherent uncertainties found in the modelling. This research will compare two approaches to suitability analysis over three differing methods. The primary approach will use an Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), while the other approach will use a Fuzzy AHP over two methods;Fitted Fuzzy AHP and Nested Fuzzy AHP. Secondary to this, each method will be assessed into how it behaves in a climate change scenario to understand and highlight the role of uncertainties in model conceptualisation and structure. Outputs and comparisons between each method, in relation to area, proportion of membership classes and spatial representation, showed that fuzzy modelling techniques detailed a more robust and continuous output. In particular the Nested Fuzzy AHP was concluded to be more pertinent, as it incorporated complex modelling techniques, as well as the initial AHP framework. Through this comparison and assessment of model behaviour, an evaluation of each methods predictive capacity and relevance for decision-making purposes in agricultural applications is gained.

关键词： Agriculture   adaptive capacity and exposure   climate change   sensitivity   vulnerability  

摘要： Assessing vulnerability to climate change and variability is an important first step in evolving appropriate adaptation strategies to changing climate. Such an analysis also helps in targeting adaptation investments, specific to more vulnerable regions. Adopting the definition of vulnerability given by IPCC, vulnerability was assessed for 572 rural districts of India. Thirty eight indicators reflecting sensitivity, adaptive capacity and exposure were chosen to construct the composite vulnerability index. Climate projections of the PRECIS model for A1B scenario for the period 2021-2050 were considered to capture the future climate. The data on these indicators were normalized based on the nature of relationship. They were then combined into three indices for sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity, which were then averaged with weights given by experts, to obtain the relative vulnerability index. Based on the index, all the districts were divided into five categories with equal number of districts. One more district was added to 'very high' and 'high' categories. The analysis showed that districts with higher levels of vulnerability are located in the western and peninsular India. It is also observed that the highly fertile Indo-Gangetic Plains are relatively more sensitive, but less vulnerable because of higher adaptive capacity and lower exposure.

关键词： 气候变化   农作物生长发育   熟制   气候灾害   农业  

摘要： 气候变化是当前全球关注的焦点,但是研究结论存在着很大的不确定性。以气候变化对农作物生长发育和产量、作物熟制、病虫害、旱涝灾害等几个方面的影响作为出发点,拟从这些方面对研究成果进行综述,进一步全面探索气温的变化对农业造成的影响。以此作为理论依据,制订相应对策、采取适应措施等。

关键词： 气候变化   水土资源配置   农业水土匹配系数   东北地区  

摘要： 东北地区是国家重要的粮食主产区和商品粮基地,肩负着保障国家粮食安全的重任。农业水土资源配置问题关系到粮食生产格局的演变方向。在全球气候变暖的背景下,雨养农业特征明显的东北地区水土资源时空耦合状况也发生了改变。目前,国家或区域尺度上农业水土资源配置的研究成果较多,还需应用最新研究成果丰富农业水土资源配置的基本内涵,从长时间序列和栅格尺度上深入开展农业水土资源的时空耦合研究,这既有助于实现水土资源空间均衡、系统治理的目标,也是进一步开展气候变化背景下东北地区农业水土资源评价、种植结构调整的现实需求。

关键词： 冷害   温度距平   站次比   频率  

摘要： 基于东北三省春玉米潜在种植区内65个气象站点1961-2010年逐日气象数据,以气象行业标准5-9月逐月平均气温之和与其多年平均值的距平作为春玉米冷害等级判断指标,分析东北三省春玉米生育期冷害发生概率的空间分布和年代际演变特征,并利用每月逐日平均气温与其多年平均值的距平值明确了春玉米生长时段内低温事件发生风险较大的月份。结果表明:(1)近50a(1961-2010年)东北三省春玉米冷害发生区域范围大小表现为重度>轻度>中度,其中轻度冷害的高发区位于吉林省西部,低发区位于辽宁省南部地区;中度冷害主要发生于黑龙江和吉林省部分地区,辽宁省发生较少;重度冷害高发区位于黑龙江省北部、东南部以及吉林省东部地区,发生频率在25%以上,低发区位于辽宁省中西部,发生频率低于5%。各等级冷害发生频率年际间总体呈下降趋势,近20a(1991-2010年),各等级冷害的发生范围明显缩小。(2)东北三省春玉米各等级冷害低温事件主要发生在5月和6月,生产实际中需关注5月和6月的温度变化及冷害发生。

关键词： ≤0℃负积温   12月-翌年2月日照时数   10月-翌年4月大风日数   气候变化   设施农业   天山北坡经济带   ArcGIS  

摘要： 新疆天山北坡经济带冬季寒冷且漫长、日照时数少、部分地区多大风,气候条件对设施农业生产总体不利。开展气候变化对该地区设施农业气候适宜性的影响研究,对适应气候变化,科学制定天山北坡经济带设施农业布局和发展规划具有重要意义。利用天山北坡经济带35个气象台站1961-2014年逐年≤0℃负积温、12月-翌年2月日照时数和10月-翌年4月大风日数资料,通过线性趋势分析、累积距平和t检验以及基于Arc GIS的混合插值法对各要素的时空变化进行分析。结合实际调查获取的设施农业气候适宜性区划指标,对比分析了1988年前、后天山北坡经济带设施农业气候适宜性区划的变化。结果表明:天山北坡经济带≤0℃负积温具有高山带多,平原次之,中、低山带少;12月-翌年2月日照时数高山带和平原少,中、低山带多;10月-翌年4月大风日数峡谷地带及风口和风线多,平原和山区少的特点。1961-2014年天山北坡经济带≤0℃负积温、12月-翌年2月日照时数和10月-翌年4月大风日数分别以50.67℃·d·10a-1、20.52h·10a-1和1.31d·10a-1的倾向率呈极显著(P<0.001)减少趋势,上述各要素分别于1988、1987和1987年发生突变。受其影响,1988年后较其之前,设施农业适宜区和次适宜区面积分别增加14466.0km2和4929.7km2,不适宜区减小19395.6km2。

关键词： Climate change   Modelling   Pastures   Adaptation  

摘要： Climate change has the potential to affect the productivity of agricultural enterprises with the ability to adapt varying among farm systems. We modelled the impacts and tested the effects of potential adaptations to climate change for two New Zealand sheep and beef grazing enterprises located in regions that have contrasting climate change projections. For both enterprises we examined six management systems varying in farming intensity and the tactics used to respond to changes in feed supply and demand. The effects of the impacts and adaptations were determined by examining the economic viability of the systems. We modelled pasture growth over two 20-year periods centred on 1990 and 2040 using downscaled climate projections and a pasture simulation model;the resultant pasture growth curves were used in a farm system model to both determine impacts and test the benefits of adaptation. For both regions there were only slight increases in total annual pasture growth but marked changes in seasonality that required changes in the management system. For one region there were clear benefits of climate change which were accentuated by adaptation while in the other climate change had no positive impacts and adaptation was not effective. Two caveats are noteworthy: first, although adaptations used for the 2040 management systems were not outside the biologically feasible options achievable today, they did involve changes in reproductive efficiency and animal growth rates that are only currently achieved on the highest performing farms. Secondly, some of the adaptations assumed and depended on stock and feed movement between farms and regions, however we were not able to assess the possibility of synchronous, widespread droughts in multiple regions;should these increase then our adaptations would be challenging and could also put pressure on current agricultural infrastructure. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词： agricultural sector   climate change   Sake   Food Security  

摘要： Issue Title: Environmental issues facing Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear risks