关键词： Hydropower   Irrigation   Reservoir resilience   System dynamics   Water resources  

摘要： Many (semi-) arid locations globally, and particularly islands, rely heavily on reservoirs for water supply. Some reservoirs are particularly vulnerable to climate and development changes (e.g. population change, tourist growth, hydropower demands). Irregularities and uncertainties in the fluvial regime associated with climate change and the continuous increase in water demand by different sectors will add new challenges to the management and to the resilience of these reservoirs. The resilience of vulnerable reservoirs must be studied in detail to prepare for and mitigate potential impacts of these changes. In this paper, a reservoir balance model is developed and presented for the Pedra e' Othoni reservoir in Sardinia, Italy, to assess resilience to climate and development changes. The model was first calibrated and validated, then forced with extensive ensemble climate data for representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, agricultural data, and with four socio-economic development scenarios. Future projections show a reduction in annual reservoir inflow and an increase in demand, mainly in the agricultural sector. Under no scenario is reservoir resilience significantly affected, the reservoir always achieves refill. However, this occurs at the partial expenses of hydropower production with implications for the production of renewable energy. There is also the possibility of conflict between the agricultural sector and hydropower sector for diminishing water supply. Pedra e' Othoni reservoir shows good resilience to future change mostly because of the disproportionately large basin feeding it. However this is not the case of other Sardinian reservoirs and hence a detailed resilience assessment of all reservoirs is needed, where development plans should carefully account for the trade-offs and potential conflicts among sectors. For Sardinia, the option of physical connection between reservoirs is available, as are alternative water supply measures. Tho

关键词： Organic farming   Nonfiction  

关键词： Crop yield modelling   Adaptation strategies   Irrigation   Mulching   Tomato   Wheat  

摘要： In Europe, there is concern that climate change will cause significant impacts around the Mediterranean. The goals of this study are to quantify the economic risk to crop production, to demonstrate the variability of yield by soil texture and climate model and to investigate possible adaptation strategies. In the Rio Mannu di San Sperate watershed, located in Sardinia (Italy) we investigate production of wheat, a rainfed crop. In the Chiba watershed located in Cap Bon (Tunisia), we analyze irrigated tomato production. We find, using the FAO model AquaCrop that crop production will decrease significantly in a future climate (2040-2070) as compared to the present without adaptation measures. Using "value-at-risk", we show that production should be viewed in a statistical manner. Wheat yields in Sardinia are modelled to decrease by 64% on clay barns, and to increase by 8% and 26% respectively on sandy loams and sandy clay barns. Assuming constant irrigation, tomatoes sown in August in Cap Bon are modelled to have a 45% chance of crop failure on loamy sands;a 39% decrease in yields on sandy clay loams;and a 12% increase in yields on sandy barns. For tomatoes sown in March;sandy clay loans will fail 81% of the time;on loamy sands the crop yields will be 63% less while on sandy barns, the yield will increase by 12%. However, if one assume 10% less water available for irrigation then tomatoes sown in March are not viable. Some adaptation strategies will be able to counteract the modelled crop losses. Increasing the amount of irrigation one strategy however this may not be sustainable. Changes in agricultural management such as changing the planting date of wheat to coincide with changing rainfall patterns in Sardinia or mulching of tomatoes in Tunisia can be effective at reducing crop losses. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

关键词： Odisha   Climate change   Agriculture   Net revenue   Ricardian approach  

摘要： The present study examines the climate sensitivity of the agricultural production of Odisha, a state at the east coast of India. The two climatic variables which have been taken for the study are temperature and rainfall. The study has adopted the Ricardian approach to assess the impact of climate change on the net revenue from agricultural production of Odisha. Panel regression model has been used to test the relationship between climate and other control variables on net revenue. Results of the study reveal that climate has significant influence on the agricultural production of Odisha. The possible future climate scenarios are found to have negative impact on the net revenue from agricultural production of Odisha towards the end of twenty-first century, which call for some policy attentions.

关键词： Agriculture   Climate Change   Food Security   Mitigation  

摘要： Understanding the complexity among food security, climate change and agriculture is a challenging topic. Projected growth rate of world population suggests a chaotic scenario in terms of food and water scarcity. This study reviews the major contributions by the scientific community in regards to effects on agriculture and food security as a result of climate change. The main conclusions are that the implementation of effective policies and mitigation measures for the effects of climate change are required to guide actions for a sustainable agriculture. The need for an intensive agriculture along with adaptation measures for human nourishment is necessary. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

关键词： REDD   Emissions   Vulnerability   Landscape   Ecosystem services   Livelihoods  

摘要： Adaptation and mitigation share the ultimate purpose of reducing climate change impacts. However, they tend to be considered separately in projects and policies because of their different objectives and scales. Agriculture and forestry are related to both adaptation and mitigation: they contribute to greenhouse gas emissions and removals, are vulnerable to climate variations, and form part of adaptive strategies for rural livelihoods. We assessed how climate change project design documents (PDDs) considered a joint contribution to adaptation and mitigation in forestry and agriculture in the tropics, by analyzing 201 PDDs from adaptation funds, mitigation instruments, and project standards [e.g., climate community and biodiversity (CCB)]. We analyzed whether PDDs established for one goal reported an explicit contribution to the other (i.e., whether mitigation PDDs contributed to adaptation and vice versa). We also examined whether the proposed activities or expected outcomes allowed for potential contributions to the two goals. Despite the separation between the two goals in international and national institutions, 37 % of the PDDs explicitly mentioned a contribution to the other objective, although only half of those substantiated it. In addition, most adaptation (90 %) and all mitigation PDDs could potentially report a contribution to at least partially to the other goal. Some adaptation project developers were interested in mitigation for the prospect of carbon funding, whereas mitigation project developers integrated adaptation to achieve greater long-term sustainability or to attain CCB certification. International and national institutions can provide incentives for projects to harness synergies and avoid trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation.

关键词： Symbiosis   Plant-microbe interactions   Mitigation   Agroecology   Climate change   Synthetic communities   GHGe  

摘要： The importance of increasing crop production while reducing resource inputs and land-use change cannot be overstated especially in light of climate change and a human population growth projected to reach nine billion this century. Mutualistic plant-microbe interactions offer a novel approach to enhance agricultural productivity while reducing environmental costs. In concert with other novel agronomic technologies and management, plant-microbial mutualisms could help increase crop production and reduce yield losses by improving resistance and/or resilience to edaphic, biologic, and climatic variability from both bottom-up and top-down perspectives. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

关键词： agricultural adaptation   perceptions   autonomous adaptation   climate change   climate variability   droughts impacts  

摘要： Climate change is recognised as one of the leading challenges affecting the performance of agriculture and the livelihood of people. Farmers are the hardest hit as they have to continuously respond to climatic variations. In order to understand farmers' perceptions of climate change and its impacts, and to identify adaptation needs, focus group discussions and semi-structured questionnaire surveys were carried out at the end of the south-west monsoon season in 2012 (Kharif cropping season in India). This helped to gather their immediate responses soon after the poor performance of south-west monsoon 2012. Khariff cultivation is locally known as 'Kuruvai' and is always under the influence of the south-west monsoon rainfall. Farmers' have perceived climate variability, and identified increasing temperature, delayed onset, intermittent dry spells and decreasing soil moisture as the critical factors affecting their cultivation. Some of them have started to adapt to these changes by cultivating only short-duration crops such as pulses, vegetables and flowers especially jasmine, but there is also a trend to put more land under fallow and abandoning the major cereal production. This study reveals that the farmers' perceptions are in accordance with the real trends analysis done on meteorological variables using Mann-Kendall test and Sens's slope estimator test, but not exactly matches with rainfall. Farmers have indicated their specific adaptation needs, a number of which could be incorporated into site-specific adaption strategies and policies.