关键词： 气候变化   农业生产   影响   评价  

摘要： 在我国的经济发展中,农业占据着极其重要的地位,而农业生产在很大程度上受到气候变化的影响。近年来,我国气候发生了一定的变化,气温呈现出逐年上升的趋势,极端恶劣天气频频发生,对农业生产造成了很大影响。对于气候对农业影响的评价,学术界进行了较为深入的研究,本文对这些评价方法进行综述。

关键词： Soil organic carbon   Climate change   Agricultural management practices   DeNitrification-DeComposition (DNDC)   1:50,000 soil database  

摘要： Understanding the impacts of climate change and agricultural management practices on soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics is critical for implementing optimal farming practices and maintaining agricultural productivity. This study examines the influence of climatic variables and agricultural management on carbon sequestration potentials in Tai-Lake Paddy soils of China using the DeNitrification-DeComposition (DNDC, version 9.1) model, with a high-resolution soil database (1:50,000). Model simulations considered the effects of no-tillage, the application rates of manure, N fertilization, and crop residue, water management, and changes in temperature and precipitation. We found that the carbon sequestration potential in the top soils (0-30 cm) for the 2.32 Mha paddy soils of the Tai-Lake region varied from 4.71 to 44.31 Tg C under the feasible management practices during the period of 2001-2019. The sequestration potential significantly increased with increasing application of N-fertilizer, manure, conservation tillage, and crop residues, with an annual average SOC changes ranged from 107 to 121 kg C ha(-1) yr(-1), 159 to 326 kg C ha(-1) yr(-1), 78 to 128 kg C ha(-1) yr(-1), and 489 to 1005 kg C ha(-1) yr(-1), respectively. Toward mitigating greenhouse emissions and N losses, no-tillage and increase of crop residue return to soils as well as manure application are recommended for agricultural practice in this region. Our analysis of climate impacts on SOC sequestration suggests that the rice paddies in this region will continue to be a carbon sink under future warming conditions. Specifically, with rising air temperature of 2.0 degrees C and 4 degrees C, the average annual SOC changes were 52 and 21 kg C ha(-1) yr(-1), respectively. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

摘要： Understanding the potential impacts of climate change on economic outcomes requires knowing how agents might adapt to a changing climate. We exploit large variation in recent temperature and precipitation trends to identify adaptation to climate change in US agriculture, and use this information to generate new estimates of the potential impact of future climate change on agricultural outcomes. Longer run adaptations appear to have mitigated less than half-and more likely none-of the large negative short-run impacts of extreme heat on productivity. Limited recent adaptation implies substantial losses under future climate change in the absence of countervailing investments.

关键词： 气候变化   农业气象灾害   病虫害   影响   分析研究  

摘要： 随着经济的发展,社会的不断进步。目前,我国面临着全球变暖的问题,并且在气候变化的影响下,我国的农业气象灾害发生的几率变得越来越大。面对极端气候频发的现象,对我国的农业生产有着重大的影响。其中,全球性的气候变暖使我国的农业病虫害变得更加严重。与此同时,病虫害危害的范围和程度也在不断的加大。不仅提高了农业病虫害发生的几率,而且加大了病虫害防治工作的难度。这对我国的农业发展是非常不利的。对此,本文围绕气候变化问题分析了其对我 国农业气象灾害与病虫害方面的影响,希望能够找到具体原因,解决这一问题。

关键词： 气候变化   一般均衡模型   粮食生产   粮食消费   经济增长  

摘要： 为研究气候变化对粮食生产、消费及经济增长影响,将气候变化影响粮食产量的研究结果作为一般均衡模型的政策模拟方案,通过构建的基期模拟预测研究了到2050年中国粮食生产、消费及其经济增长两个方面的内容。模拟结果显示:(1)到2050年,中国粮食生产总量在A2情景(高排放)下为629185×103t,在B2(中低排放)情景下为601859×103t。总需求在B2情景下为626609×103t,在B2情景下为561093×103t,不考虑损耗及库存,粮食供需基本平衡,供给略大于需求。(2)考虑CO_2的肥效作用,到2050年,气候变化对中国宏观经济和部门经济产生有利影响,实际工资、实际GDP、投资、家庭消费、出口等宏观指标相比于基期都有所上升,对主要农业部门及工业和服务业部门的产出、消费、进出口也是有利影响。而不考虑CO_2的肥效作用则会得到相反的结论。(3)在A2情景下气候变化对中国宏观经济和部门经济的有利影响要大于B2情景下的影响。(4)从气候变化对产出和需求影响的变化结果来看,从总体上来说,考虑CO_2的肥效作用,无论是A2还是B2情景下,都导致供给增加,进口减少,增加的供给量大于需求。因此,考虑CO_2肥效的作用,会增强供给的保障,有利于维护中国的粮食安全。而不考虑CO_2的肥效作用,无论是A2还是B2情景下,都导致供给减少,进口增加,减少的供给量大于需求的变化量,不利于维护中国的粮食安全。

关键词： 气候变化   农业生产   影响   对策  

摘要： 气候变化是当前全球面临的一个严重的环境问题,气候变化不仅会对人们的生活带来影响,还会对农业生产水平造成影响.基于此,分析气候变化对农业生产的影响,并有针对性地提出相应的策略,旨在促进农业生产水平的提高.

关键词： 农业区划研究所   前沿研究   农业资源   中国农业科学院   气候变化   空间数据挖掘   地表温度   农业遥感   科技工作者   国内外期刊  

摘要： 毛克彪,1977年出生,博士,中国农业科学院农业资源与农业区划研究所研究员（优秀青年一级人才）,湖南科技大学兼职教授,安徽农业大学客座教授。主要从事农业大数据、气候变化、农业遥感、微波、热红外遥感、空间数据挖掘及GIS应用等方面的研究,主持或作为核心成员参与各类国家重大、重点等科研项目近20项。在国内外期刊和国际会议发表论文100余篇,专著1部,获得国家发明专利6项,国际发明专利3项。

关键词： 气候变化   农业灾害   农业生产   影响  

摘要： 根据对惠水站1981-2010近30 a的气候资料进行统计分析,结合惠水县农业生产情况,总结出惠水县的气候变化特点以及主要农业灾害的发生发展规律,分析气候变化对农业生产的影响。

关键词： Climate justice   Vulnerability   Adaptation   Resilience   Agriculture   Jamaica  

摘要： It is now widely recognized that climate change is likely to have detrimental impacts across the Caribbean region, with the burden likely to fall disproportionately on the most vulnerable segments of society. It is therefore an appropriate time to ask whether the frameworks that lie behind climate change discourse and policy are consistent with the demands of social and environmental justice. In this paper, we use climate justice as a lens for evaluating three prominent frameworks for addressing climate change, those of adaptation, resilience, and vulnerability. Each of these discursive frameworks, we argue, can contribute to our understanding of climate change, but they do not all incorporate justice concerns to the same degree. In order to illustrate this, we examine the justice implications of using each of the three frameworks to assess a case study of agricultural transformation in Southwestern Jamaica. Farmers in this region have adapted to changing climate conditions in a variety of ways, including the use of new agricultural technology. The ability of many farmers to take advantage of such innovations, however, is constrained by the underlying landscape of vulnerability within the region. After interpreting this example from the perspectives of adaptation, resilience and vulnerability, we conclude that all three paradigms are capable of calling attention to climate justice issues, but only in the vulnerability perspective are such issues intrinsic. We believe, therefore, that a greater attention to vulnerability within Caribbean climate policy holds the potential to advance the goals of climate justice within the region. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词： agriculture   Central Valley   agricultural sector   climate change   aversions  

摘要： Downscaled climate change projections for California, when translated into changes in irrigation water delivery and then into profit from agriculture in the Central Valley, show an increase in conventional measures of variability such as the variance. However, these increases are modest and mask a more pronounced increase in downside risk, defined as the probability of unfavorable outcomes of water supply or profit. This paper describes the concept of downside risk and measures it as it applies to outcomes for Central Valley agriculture projected under four climate change scenarios. We compare the effect of downside risk aversion versus conventional risk aversion or risk neutrality when assessing the impact of climate change on the profitability of Central Valley agriculture. We find that, when downside risk is considered, the assessment of losses due to climate change increases substantially.