关键词： Adoption   Adaptation   Agro-pastoralists   Borena   Adaptive capacity   Institutions  

摘要： Livestock production is very risky due to climate variability in semi-arid Sub-Saharan Africa. Using data collected from 400 households in the Borena zone of the Oromia Region, we explored what drives adoption of agricultural practices that can decrease the vulnerability of agro-pastoralists to climate change. Households with more adaptive capacity adopted a larger number of practices. The households' adaptive capacity was stronger when the quality of local institutions was high. However, adaptive capacity had less explanatory power in explaining adoption of adaptation options than household socio-economic characteristics, suggesting that aggregating information into one indicator of adaptive capacity for site-specific studies may not help to explain the adoption behaviour of households. Strong local institutions lead to changes in key household-level characteristics (like membership to community groups, years lived in a village, access to credit, financial savings and crop income) which positively affect adoption of agricultural practices. In addition, better local institutions were also positively related to adoption of livestock-related adaptation practices. Poor access to a tarmac road was positively related to intensification and diversification of crop production, whereas it was negatively related to the intensification of livestock production, an important activity for generating cash in the region. Our findings suggest that better local institutions lead to changes in household characteristics, which positively affect adoption of adaptation practices, suggesting that policies should aim to strengthen local institutions.

关键词： representative concentration pathways   non-point source pollution   sediment   total nitrogen   total phosphorus   SWAT  

摘要： Changes in non-point source pollutant loads in the Mankyeong River Basin for the 30-year future period (2011-2040) were assessed with consideration of the uncertainties in the climate change scenario data. The downscaled weather variables from eleven Climate Models for the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 scenario were used as input to the calibrated and validated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model for simulating the changes of future NPS pollutant loads. The bias-corrected data appropriately reproduced the spatial and temporal patterns of the NPS pollutant load, which was derived by using observed weather data. The rates of change in sediment, total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) loads within each sub-basin under the RCP8.5 future scenario showed an average increase of 13.1 to 143%, -13.4 to 49.5%, and 0.40 to 128%, respectively. It can be concluded that sediment and TP loads are sensitive to changes in the characteristics of climate variables by showing an increase trend in most of the sub-basins. Looking at the temporal distribution, the uncertainty ranges for both sediment and TP were higher during the wet season from June to September. Copyright (c) 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

关键词： 联合国粮农组织   农业状况   气候变化   呼吁   粮食系统   可持续发展   小农经济   饥饿  

摘要： 联合国粮农组织日前发布《2016年粮食及农业状况》报告呼吁，农业必须努力克服气候变化的影响，帮助小农经济和粮食系统可持续发展。粮农组织在报告中指出，为了消除饥饿和贫困，农业和粮食系统必须快速转型，否则遭受饥饿威胁的人口可能再增数百万。

关键词： 水资源   气候变化   农业影响   解决策略  

摘要： 该文利用蒸发、降水、气温三个对农业水资源影响较大的气象因素进行分析,得出降水减少、蒸发量增加以及气温升高是影响农业水资源浓度重要因素,为此,针对性的提出若干应对策略,确保水资源的可持续利用。

关键词： Sustainability   Water use   Soybean production   Deforestation   Land use change  

摘要： Agricultural expansion and intensification are main drivers of land-use change in Brazil. Soybean is the major crop under expansion in the area. Soybean production involves large amounts of water and fertiliser that act as sources of contamination with potentially negative impacts on adjacent water bodies. These impacts might be intensified by projected climate change in tropical areas. A Water Footprint Assessment (WFA) serves as a tool to assess environmental impacts of water and fertiliser use. The aim of this study was to understand potential impacts on environmental sustainability of agricultural intensification close to a protected forest area of the Amazon under climate change. We carried out a WFA to calculate the water footprint (WF) related to soybean production, Glycine max, to understand the sustainability of the WF in the Tapajos river basin, a region in the Brazilian Amazon with large expansion and intensification of soybean. Based on global datasets, environmental hotspots potentially unsustainable WF areas were identified and spatially plotted in both baseline scenario (2010) and projection into 2050 through the use of a land-use change scenario that includes climate change effects. Results show green and grey WF values in 2050 increased by 304%, and 268%, respectively. More than one-third of the watersheds doubled their grey WF in 2050. Soybean production in 2010 lies within sustainability I imits. However, current soybean expansion and intensification trends lead to large impacts in relation to water pollution and water use, affecting protected areas. Areas not impacted in terms of water pollution dropped by 20.6% in 2050 for the whole catchment, while unsustainability increased 8.1%. Management practices such as water consumption regulations to stimulate efficient water use, reduction of crop water use and evapotranspiration, and optimal fertiliser application control could be key factors in achieving sustainability wiLhin a river basin. (C) 2016

关键词： Agriculture   Climate change   Interdisciplinary collaboration   Co-authorship networks   EU research policy   Collaborative funding initiatives   Knowledge hub  

摘要： In order to maintain food security and sustainability of production under climate change, interdisciplinary and international collaboration in research is essential. In the EU, knowledge hubs are important funding instruments for the development of an interconnected European Research Area. Here, network analysis was used to assess whether the pilot knowledge hub MACSUR has affected interdisciplinary collaboration, using co-authorship of peer reviewed articles as a measure of collaboration. The broad community of all authors identified as active in the field of agriculture and climate change was increasingly well connected over the period studied. Between knowledge hub members, changes in network parameters suggest an increase in collaborative interaction beyond that expected due to network growth, and greater than that found in the broader community. Given that interdisciplinary networks often take several years to have an impact on research outputs, these changes within the relatively new MACSUR community provide evidence that the knowledge hub structure has been effective in stimulating collaboration. However, analysis showed that knowledge hub partners were initially well-connected, suggesting that the initiative may have gathered together researchers with particular resources or inclinations towards collaborative working. Long term, consistent funding and ongoing reflection to improve networking structures may be necessary to sustain the early positive signs from MACSUR, to extend its success to a wider community of researchers, or to repeat it in less connected fields of science. Tackling complex challenges such as climate change will require research structures that can effectively support and utilise the diversity of talents beyond the already well-connected core of scientists at major research institutes. But network research shows that this core, well-connected group are vital brokers in achieving wider integration.

关键词： Agriculture   climate change adaptation  

摘要： Climate change is occurring. Deviations from historic temperatures and precipitation plus increased frequency of extreme events are modifying agriculture systems globally. Adapting agricultural management practices offers a way to lessen the effects or exploit opportunities. Herein many aspects of the adaptation issue are discussed, including needs, strategies, observed actions, benefits, economic analysis approaches, role of public/private actors, limits, and project evaluation. We comment on the benefits and shortcomings of analytical methods and suggested economic efforts. Economists need to play a role in such diverse matters as projecting adaptation needs, designing adaptation incentives, and evaluating projects to ensure efficiency and effectiveness.

关键词： Aerial imagery   Forest limit   Krkonose   Land use   Norway spruce   Picea abies   Recruitment   Timberline  

摘要： Questions: What was the main trigger of treeline ecotone advance - rising temperature or agricultural land abandonment? Were the triggering factors of tree expansion homogeneous or did they differ between upper and lower parts of the treeline ecotone? Location: Sudetes Mts., Central Europe (50 degrees N, 15-17 degrees E). Methods: Data were gathered from the treeline ecotone formed by Picea abies at elevations ranging from 1250 to 1490 m. The study area experienced a 1 degrees C temperature increase over the last 100 yr and termination of cattle grazing and grass mowing in the first half of the 20th century. At 38 plots situated at lower ('timberline') and middle or upper ('treeline' and 'outpost treeline') parts of the treeline ecotone, the age structure of all seed origin P. abies was determined. Changes in tree cover and number of trees over the last 60-70 yr were assessed from aerial imagery. The history of agricultural land use for each plot was compiled. Finally, changes in tree establishment were modelled using climatic variables and land-use intensity. Results: We found that tree establishment at treeline had occurred with a 30-40-yr lag after the main establishment peak at timberline. Whereas all treeline plots showed gradual increases in tree cover, timberline tree cover first increased, with some plots then undergoing thinning. Enhanced tree establishment was dependent mainly upon agricultural land abandonment. The effect of land-use changes was more important in the lower than in the upper part of the treeline ecotone. Increasing summer temperatures had a negative influence on seedling establishment in the last few decades. Conclusions: Treeline ecotone densification was attributable to agricultural land abandonment across the entire treeline ecotone with the most important effect at timberline. More recently, seedling establishment has been limited by the effects of drought and/or absence of suitable microsites. We documented that one or two establishme