关键词： Agriculture   Adaptation   Climate change   Mitigation   Food security  

摘要： Purpose - The purpose of this study is to synthesize the impacts of climate change on agriculture and assess the status of policies, programs and strategies to adapt small farmholders to climate change in South Asia. Design/methodology/approach - The authors collected secondary information through a desktop review of policy documents, action plans and published reports. Face-to-face interviews with policy makers, agriculture and climate experts representing the government, non-governmental organizations, international development agencies and the private sector were also conducted to validate the secondary information. Findings - The results revealed that agriculture is the dominant economic mainstay providing livelihood to over 70 per cent, employing 60 per cent of the labor force and contributing about 22 per cent of the regional gross domestic product. Climate impacts, such as floods, sea level rise and salt intrusion, increased frequency and intensity of storms, and pests combined with increasing water scarcity continue to reduce arable land, reduce yield of crops and threaten the food security of farmers. Adaptation efforts include using improved varieties of crop;changing cropping patterns and planting seasons;and water conservation techniques. However, progress remains low because of a lack of adequate technical knowledge and financial resources. Originality/value - The amount of published literature on climate change and its impact on agriculture is increasing, but there is little effort to analyze and document impacts and strategies to adapt small farm holders to climate change at a landscape level, particularly in South Asia. This study fills in this gap and will serve as a valuable source of information for those wishing to conduct research or develop adaptation strategies for any of the four countries of Bangladesh, Bhutan, India and Nepal.

关键词： 气候变化   广西农业   计量分析   社会生态系统   适应对策  

摘要： 当前,气候变化已成为全球关注的焦点。毋庸置疑,气候变化给各个国家和地区带来前所未有的挑战,农业受到的考验尤为严峻。提高适应气候变化的能力,尽早采取相应的措施和对策,规避气候变化带来的风险,对各地区抢抓机遇、实现农业健康持续发展、经济平稳较快发展具有非常重要的意义。本文以广西壮族自治区为研究对象,分析了气候变化的对广西农业产生的影响和广西的适应情况,提出了有针对性的相关措施。首先,本文使用了文献研究法,搜集并梳理了国内外有关气候变化及气候变化对农业影响的文献资料,通过对专著、论文等文献的有目的性大量阅读,整理学者们的相关研究成果,并进行有针对性的记录,在此基础上从气候变化现状及对我国农业影响,气候变化对广西农业生产影响,适应界定及适应障碍研究,对气候变化的适应过程研究和农业领域适应气候变化的对策研究五个方面撰写文献综述。在进行归纳总结后,肯定了前辈们的研究成果和贡献,同时也指出了可能存在的不足。然后从产值、农作物产量和生产条件方面介绍了广西农业生产情况,从气温、降水、光照和极端气候方面阐述了广西的气候变化的情况。借鉴戴蒙德模型分析了气候变化对农业生产影响的作用机理,在此基础上,采用定量分析方法,通过使用相关的时间序列数据和面板数据,分析了广西气候变化对农业产生总值的影响。利用数据包络分析和回归分析的方法探究了广西气候变化对农业产生效率的影响。结果表明:无论从哪种模型的实证结果来看,近年来的气候变化都对广西农业产生了负面影响。在识别适应障碍的阶段,引入与气候相关的奥斯特罗姆社会生态系统诊断框架,将适应气候变化的过程分解为理解、规划和治理三个阶段,每个阶段包括三个子过程。通过田野法和访谈法得到的相关数据和资料,结合广西的实际情况识别出适应过程中的障碍。最后,根据所识别出的具体障碍,文章从改善能源结构,提高农业生产效率;加强对气候变化的宣传和气候信息的传播;培育新型经营主体,发展多种形式规模经营;加强整体规划,完善相关政策、法律;完善气候数据统计体系,明确相关适应标准;完善机构设置,增加财政支持投资融资力度等方面提出了广西农业适应气候变化的针对性措施。

关键词： 气候变化   方向距离函数   农业全要素能源效率   Tobit模型   收敛性  

摘要： 近年来,以CO2为主的温室气体排放引起的气候增暖已在世界范围内受到广泛关注。通过节能减排实现低碳可持续发展,已成为世界各国面临的必然选择。我国作为传统的农业大国,一方面气候变化对农业生产和粮食安全的影响较大,另一方面农业生产过程中伴随着大量直接和间接碳排放,又会进一步作用于气候变化。因此,如何降低农业生产中的CO2排放,促进农业经济与环境保护协调发展,已成为当前亟待解决的问题。基于此,本文在全球气候变化背景下,对我国碳排放约束下农业全要素能源效率进行了系统性研究。具体而言:（1）分析了我国农业能源消费现状及农业二氧化碳排放现状;（2）核算了分省区农业能源投入、资本存量等重要指标,并运用SBM方向距离函数测算了我国30个省（市、区）2000-2014年间碳排放约束下农业全要素能源效率;（3）基于面板Tobit模型考察了全国以及东、中、西三大地区碳排放约束下农业能源效率的影响因素;（4）对我国整体及东、中、西三大地区碳排放约束下农业全要素能源效率的收敛性进行研究。最后,针对研究得出的结论,从应对气候变化的视角下提出促进我国碳排放约束下农业全要素能源效率提高的对策建议,以期为提高农业能源利用效率降低农业能源消耗和碳排放,为国家节能减排目标规划提供理论参考。

关键词： biochar   agriculture   economy  

摘要： A recent commentary in Carbon Management by Fidel et al. (http://***/doi/full/10.1080/17583004.2017.1306408) question the data selection and the analysis techniques used by Bach et al. (Carbon Management,https://***/10.1080/17583004.2016.1213608) to assess two key aspects of biochar application in crop production, the effect on crop yield and the long-term carbon sequestration in soil. However, the arguments by Fidel et al. are not convincing. For farmer's decision whether biochar use in crop production might be economically profitable the low median values and large variability of results on yield effect in field trials form a sufficient base to abstain from biochar amendment to soil, therefore a detailed meta-analysis of data is not necessary. Future research may demonstrate under which conditions a pronounced positive and long-lasting effect of biochar application can be expected.

关键词： Climate change   General equilibrium   Land-use change   Nepalese agriculture  

摘要： This paper investigates the feasibility of changes in cropland-use as an adaptation strategy to minimise the economy-wide costs of climate change on agriculture. Nepal makes an interesting case study as it is one of the most vulnerable agricultural economies within South Asia. We develop a comparative static multi household computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for Nepal, with a nested set of constant elasticity of transformation (CET) functional forms, to model the allocation of land within different agricultural sectors. Land transformation elasticities in these CET functions are allowed to reflect the ease of switching from one crop to another based on their agronomic characteristics. The results suggest that, in the long run, farmers in Nepal tend to allocate land to crops that are comparatively less impacted by climate change, such as paddy, thereby minimising the economy-wide impacts of climate change. Furthermore, the results reveal that land-use change tends to reduce the income disparity between different household groups by significantly moderating the income losses of marginal farmers. Therefore, it is suggested that policy makers in Nepal should prioritise schemes such as providing climate-smart paddy varieties (i.e., those that are resistant to heat, drought and floods) to farmers, subsidising fertilizers, improving agronomic practices, and educating farmers to switch from crops that are highly impacted by climate change to those that are not, such as paddy. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词： 全球气候变化   西双版纳   茶区   资源  

摘要： 利用西双版纳州3个气象站1961-2014年逐日气象资料,分析了西双版纳州茶树不同生长季的平均气温、平均气温日较差、≥10.0℃积温、<0℃日数、降水量、相对湿度和日照时数等农业气候资源的时空变化特征。结果表明,西双版纳州景洪、勐海和勐腊3个茶区近53年各生长季的平均气温和积温普遍呈显著的上升趋势,相对湿度普遍呈显著的下降趋势,降水量普遍变化趋势不明显,日照时数的变化趋势各茶区不同,勐腊呈明显的上升趋势,景洪和勐海变化趋势不明显;农业气候资源的变化对该区茶树的发育期进程、鲜叶理化成分的含量、病虫害的发生及农业气象灾害的发生会产生一定影响。

关键词： 气候变化   中国   农业气象灾害   病虫害  

摘要： 气候的变化往往会引起各种农业气象灾害及病虫害,不利于我国的农业生产安全。近年来,频发的极端气候,使得农业气象灾害及病虫害的发生几率越来越高、危害范围也不断扩大。因此,为了有效地提高我国的农业生产安全,本文就气候变化对我国农业气象灾害及病虫害的影响进行了简要的探究。

关键词： 气候变化   农业保险   粮食安全  

摘要： 本文基于2005-2014年中国省际（地区）面板数据,通过运用Nerlove提出的适应性预期模型与似不相关回归方程组模型，重点探讨气候变化背景下我国粮食生产能力以及农业保险政策的影响效果。研究发现：（1）气象变化影响了整个粮食生产系统的稳定性，其中降水增多善气温上升加快了我国粮食产业向东北地区、华北、西北地区转移，促进了北方地区粮食产业发展；降水减少、干旱天气增多对南方传统粮食产区如华东、华南地区粮食生产带来了显著的负面影响；（2）农业保险缓解了自然灾害对粮食生产的负面冲击，其中农业保险承保规模扩大对粮。食单产增长具有正向作用，农业保险灾后赔付对粮食总产量具有显著的正向影响。（3）粮食价格、农村劳动力外流、农业基础设施建设等都是影响粮食生产的重要因素。在当前气象灾害日益加剧背景下,我国应该在气象预报、农田设施与农业保险等方面加大投入,进一步提升我国粮食生产能力誊确保粮食安全。

关键词： Adaptation   Vulnerability   Amu Darya   Integrated indicators   Sensitivity   Sustainability   Irrigated agriculture  

摘要： Agriculture is one of the most vulnerable sectors to climate change. The current vulnerability assessments through traditional fragmented sectoral methods are insufficient to capture the effects on complex agricultural systems. Therefore, the traditional methods need to be replaced by integrated approaches. The objective of this study is to propose a holistic vulnerability assessment method for agricultural systems. By aggregating both agro-ecological and socio-economic information, we develop an agricultural systems vulnerability index (ASVI) which allows for (i) a classification of geographical units according to their vulnerability level, (ii) an identification of key determinants of vulnerability for each unit and (iii) an assessment of adaptation policy scenarios considering their effects on the sustainability of the analysed systems. The proposed method is applied in the Khorezm region of Uzbekistan-a representative irrigated agricultural region in the lower Amu Darya river basin. A decision support tool is used to facilitate multi-criteria decision analysis, including the computation of the index and performing sensitivity analysis of the results. The assessment for Khorezm reveals significant spatial differences of vulnerability levels due to a variation of contributing factors, e.g. natural resources, water productivity, rural-urban ratio. It reveals also that feasible land and water management policies could reduce the vulnerability in Khorezm, particularly in the districts with the poorest agro-ecological conditions. Overall, the proposed method could support national and local authorities in the identification of sustainable adaptation policies for the agriculture sector.