关键词： 气候变化   农业脆弱性   适应策略  

摘要： 在全球变暖、极端天气事件频发的背景下,对农业脆弱的国家,适应策略尤为重要。文章在阐述全球变暖和气候变化现状的基础上,分析了农业对气候变化与波动的脆弱性,以及气候变化对农业生产的影响。最后提出调整农户生产实践、改进农业生产技术、完善相应政策制度和运用天气指数金融产品等适应策略。

关键词： CarboSOIL model   Land use   Land use change   Semi-arid areas   Soil carbon sequestration   Global change  

摘要： Mediterranean agricultural areas are characterised by low soil organic C (SOC) contents and as a consequence they are often degraded and highly vulnerable to environmental changes. Climate change is expected to have a large impact upon these areas but they may be key for mitigation of its effects given their potential for soil C sequestration. Several approaches have been proposed to evaluate climate change impacts on SOC stocks, being soil C models amongst the most effective tools to assess C stocks, dynamics and distribution and to predict trends under climate change scenarios. In this study, we applied the CarboSOIL model and global climate models to predict and analyse the effects of short- (2030), medium- (2050) and long-term (2100) climate changes on SOC contents at standard soil depths (0-25, 25-50 and 50-75 cm) in a Mediterranean arid area (El Fayoum, Northern Egypt) for different land use types. The validation of CarboSOIL with field data proved the consistency of the model. Overall decreases of SOC contents in the topsoil soil layer and increases in the subsoil layers are expected in the short, medium and long term. However, intensity of these changes will depend on the land use type and our results suggest that agricultural land uses relying on irrigation will be particularly vulnerable to losses of SOC stocks. This study demonstrates the importance of assessing SOC contents and dynamics along the soil profile and the potential for soil C sequestration particularly in the subsoil. The methods used in this research can be applied in other Mediterranean areas with available information on soil, land use and climate. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

关键词： Agriculture   Bioenergy   Climate change   Mitigation   Nigeria   Renewable energy  

摘要： Energy is pivotal to the economic development of every nation. However, its production and utilization leads to undesirable carbon emissions that aggravate global warming which results in climate change. The agriculture sector is a significant user of energy. However, it has the potential to be a major contributor to Nigeria's energy supply mix in meeting its energy deficit. More so, in the light of current and impending adverse effects of climate change, there is a need to contain GHG's emissions. This paper focuses on bioenergy utilization as a climate change mitigation strategy and one that can, through effective waste management, enhance sustainable economic development in Nigeria. The paper employed a critical discourse analysis to examine the potential of the agricultural sector to provide biofuels from energy crops and other biomass sources. We conclude that Nigeria can reduce its GHG emissions and greatly contribute to global climate change mitigation while also alleviating its energy supply deficit if the agricultural and municipal wastes readily available in its towns and cities are converted to bioenergy. Such engagements will not only promote a clean and healthy environment but also create jobs for economic empowerment and a better standard of living for the people.

关键词： Climate change   Water scarcity   Water markets   Computable general equilibrium  

摘要： One of the climate change scenarios that have been developed for the Netherlands predicts hotter and drier summers and a substantial drop in river discharge. This might lead to water scarcity with detrimental economic and environmental effects. Among the possible adaptation responses to climate change-induced water scarcity, the re-allocation of water resources among competing uses should also be considered. In this paper, we extend and apply a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to assess the potential of water markets (water allocation according to its shadow price) to guide the allocation of scarce water across agriculture, manufacturing, and public water supply. We develop four scenarios in which the scope of water markets is increased from industry-specific to economy-wide. The results show that the agricultural sector bears nearly all of the losses from a new water-scarce climate, while the manufacturing sectors are able to mitigate their losses to a large extent by technical measures. Extending the scope of water markets unambiguously increases economic output and results in a re-allocation of water to the manufacturing sector from the agricultural sector and from public water services. If, perhaps for political reasons, public water services are excluded from water trading, water is re-allocated from agriculture to manufacturing. Depending on which sectors are included, the construction of a water market can have negative or positive effects on a sector's output, and although the implementation of water markets may be positive for overall economic output and can hence assist adaptation, the effect on vulnerable or societally sensitive economic sectors, such as public water, should be taken into account when implementing such a market.

关键词： Climate adaptation   Climate change   Great lakes   Fish   Conservation outcomes   Agricultural impacts   Nutrient loading  

摘要： Evaluating the potential effects of changes in climate on conservation practices can help inform strategies to protect freshwater biodiversity that are robust, even as conditions change. Here we apply a climate change "test" to a framework for estimating the amount of agricultural conservation practices needed to achieve desired fish conservation outcomes for four watersheds in the Saginaw Bay region of Michigan, USA. We developed three climate scenarios from global climate model outputs (high emissions scenario, "2080s" timeframe) to provide insight on potential impacts of a climate driver that represents a key uncertainty for this management system, the amount and timing of spring and summer precipitation. These scenarios were used as inputs to agricultural watershed models, which produced water quality outputs that we compared to thresholds in fish biodiversity metrics at the subwatershed scale. Our results suggest that impacts of climate change on evaporation rates and other aspects of hydrology will shift the relative importance of key stressors for fish (i.e., sediment loadings vs. nutrient concentrations) across these different watersheds, highlighting the need to design resilient implementation plans and policies. Overall, we found that changes in climate are likely to increase the need for agricultural conservation practices, but that increasing the implementation rate above current levels will likely remain a good investment under current and future climate conditions. (C) 2016 International Association for Great Lakes Research. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

关键词： Climate change   Agriculture   Precipitation   Impact analysis   Studies  

摘要： This study has been undertaken to examine the occurrence of climate change in Tamil Nadu, the southernmost state of India and its impact on rainfall pattern which is a primary constraint for agricultural production. Among the five sample stations examined across the state, the minimum temperature has increased significantly in Coimbatore while the same has decreased significantly in Vellore whereas both minimum and maximum temperatures have increased significantly in Madurai since 1969 with climate change occurring between late 1980s and early 1990s. As a result, the south-west monsoon has been disturbed with August rainfall increasing with more dispersion while September rainfall decreasing with less dispersion. Thus, September, the peak rainfall month of south-west monsoon before climate change, has become the monsoon receding month after climate change. Though there has been no change in the trend of the north-east monsoon, the quantity of October and November rainfall has considerably increased with increased dispersion after climate change. On the whole, south-west monsoon has decreased with decreased dispersion while north-east monsoon has increased with increased dispersion. Consequently, the season window for south-west monsoon crops has shortened while the north-east monsoon crops are left to fend against flood risk during their initial stages. Further, the incoherence in warming, climate change and rainfall impact seen across the state necessitates devising different indigenous and institutional adaptation strategies for different regions to overcome the adverse impacts of climate change on agriculture.

关键词： 气候变化   农业气象灾害   病虫害  

摘要： 气象变化尽管能够使得粮食的产量提高,但是也会带来严重的农业气象灾害以及病虫害。本文也将通过具体论述气候变化对农业气象灾害与病虫害的影响,为解决这方面的问题提供一些研究帮助。

关键词： 气候变化   气象灾害   病虫害  

摘要： 气候变化一直对农业生产的影响极大,农作物的长势与农业气象的更变息息相关,在农作物的生长过程中,若气候变化过大,农业气象危害就十分大,病虫害问题也会产生,对农作物的生长极其不利,气候变化对我国农业气象灾害及病虫害都有影响。基于此,从气候变化的角度来介绍气象灾害的类型,探讨病虫害的影响原因。

关键词： 气候变化   适应   种植结构   种植制度   作物布局   品种布局  

摘要： 近百年来,全球正经历一次以变暖为主要特征的气候变化,随着气候变化及其所带来的影响日益显著,目前适应气候变化越来越成为全球关注的热点问题。我国已有的农业种植结构调整适应气候变化实践非常丰富,但诸多研究者并未进行过系统的梳理,对已有实践的适应气候变化内涵没有清晰地认识。为了更好的应对未来气候变化,从种植制度、作物布局、品种布局三个方面阐述了气候变化对中国农业种植结构调整的影响,结合东北水稻玉米扩种、冬麦北移、华北"两晚"技术、长江中下游双季稻改制、南方冬季农业开发等典型适应气候变化案例,探讨复种指数、间作套种模式、作物配置、种植界限、种植比例、抗旱品种、抗病虫害品种等农业种植结构调整的不同方面适应气候变化的内涵,提出了种植结构调整中适应气候变化工作面临的关键问题,倡导进一步加强气候变化各要素对种植熟制的综合影响研究,深入开展农业精细区划与作物布局优化配置研究以及适应气候变化的育种多目标优化决策研究。