关键词： Agriculture   Vulnerability assessment   Adaptation   Climate change   Nordic  

摘要： Climate change is expected to have negative impacts but also to bring potential opportunities for agriculture and crop productivity in the Nordic countries. Little research has been conducted at the farmer level to identify what adaptation measures are being considered or already taken and transformative these are. Based on semi-structured interviews with farmers and extension officers from two of the most fertile agricultural areas of Finland and Sweden, this study examines to what extent Nordic farmers are engaged in transforming their farming systems. The results show that some transformational changes are taking place already but most changes are incremental. Currently, agricultural policies and regulations are perceived as a greater adaptation challenge than climate change. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

摘要： On-farm soil frost control has been used for the management of volunteer potatoes (Solanum tuberosum L.), a serious weed problem caused by climate change, in northern Japan. Deep soil frost penetration is necessary for the effective eradication of unharvested small potato tubers;however, this process can delay soil thaw and increase soil wetting in spring, thereby delaying agricultural activity initiation and increasing nitrous oxide emissions from soil. Conversely, shallow soil frost development helps over-wintering of unharvested potato tubers and nitrate leaching from surface soil owing to the periodic infiltration of snowmelt water. In this study, we synthesised on-farm snow cover manipulation experiments to determine the optimum soil frost depth that can eradicate unharvested potato tubers without affecting agricultural activity initiation while minimising N pollution from agricultural soil. The optimum soil frost depth was estimated to be 0.28-0.33 m on the basis of the annual maximum soil frost depth. Soil frost control is a promising practice to alleviate climate change effects on agriculture in cold regions, which was initiated by local farmers and further promoted by national and local research institutes.

关键词： Climate change   Climate impacts   Yield variability   Statistical crop modeling   West Africa  

摘要： West Africa is highly vulnerable to climate change and a robust quantification of the societal impacts of climate change is essential to guide the necessary adaptation efforts. Here, we project the potential impacts of climate change on nine important crops using climate change information from a gridded observational data set and a high-resolution regional climate model driven with and without land use changes. Probabilistic crop models are developed and forced with climate predictors until 2050. It is found that large-scale climate predictors are sufficiently robust for crop modelling in the absence of reliable local climate information. Pineapple, maize, groundnuts, cassava and cowpeas will face harmful effects with an average yield reduction in the range of 11%-33% by 2050, whereas sorghum, yam, cotton and rice will benefit from climate change with an average yield gain of 10-39%. Temperature increase rather than precipitation change is responsible for the projected yield changes. Our study also shows that land cover degradation in West Africa tends to reduce yield for most crops whilst favouring the production of yam and cotton. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

关键词： 气候变化   极端天气   农业经济发展  

摘要： 随着《巴黎协定》尘埃落定,气候变化毫无疑问牵动着全世界各个国家的神经。与其他人类所面临的问题不同,气候问题牵动着人类最根本的利益,事关人类的生存问题。农业对气候变化反应比较敏感脆弱,受到气候变化带来的影响比较大,各种气候变化均会导致我国农业资源、农业布局、农业生长发育甚至农产品上市时间的变化等。本文以气候变化为切入点,着重分析了世界上主要的几种气候变化表现对我国农业的影响。

关键词： 适应性决策   农业产出   产出风险   气候变化   苹果种植户  

摘要： 本文通过构建农户气候变化适应性决策对农业产出与产出风险影响的理论模型,利用陕西省8个苹果基地县660个苹果种植户的实地调查数据,评估了农户的农业产出风险,并采用内生转换模型分析了农户气候变化适应性决策对农业产出与产出风险的影响效应。结果表明:38.03%的样本农户采用覆膜、人工种草、铺秸秆、灌溉等措施适应气候变化;农户气候变化适应性决策能够增加农业产出,降低农业产出风险。基于反事实假设,采用适应措施的农户若未采用相应的适应措施,其亩均产出将下降3.72%,产出风险将增加107%;未采用适应措施的农户若采用相应的适应措施,其亩均产出将增加5.54%,产出风险将下降19.64%。降水量增加、户主受教育年限、参加合作组织及村庄提供适应措施信息服务对农户气候变化适应性决策有正向影响,而果树树龄对农户气候变化适应性决策有负向影响。

关键词： 气候变化   农业生产   应对措施  

摘要： 气候变化所带来的粮食减产日益严重。因此,气象服务对农业生产的影响不容忽视。要实现到2030年全球人口零饥饿目标,就必须积极应对气候变化。

关键词： 冬小麦   积温   参考作物蒸散量   霜期   时空分布   河南周口  

摘要： 选取周口市10个气象站点1961—2015年的逐日气象资料和霜观测资料,应用气候线性倾向率法、相关分析法和MannKendall突变检验法,分析周口市冬小麦生育期内主要农业气候资源的时空变化趋势和特征。结果表明:研究区域近54年冬小麦生育期内≥0℃积温显著增加,20世纪90年代以来增加趋势更加显著,1993年为突变年;生育期内降水量年际和年代际波动明显,空间上从南至北递减;参考作物蒸散量有明显减少趋势,年际和年代际波动比较剧烈,空间上呈东西递减趋势;生育期内日照时数有明显减少趋势,21世纪初以来减少趋势更为显著,突变年为2005年,空间上东多西少;初霜冻日期呈推迟趋势,终霜冻日期呈提前趋势,导致霜期缩短,且三者的年际波动明显。

关键词： Central America   climate change   Ecosystem   small scale farming  

摘要： An introduction to the journal is presented in which the editor discusses various reports within the issue on topics including climate change forecasting, implications on ecosystem and agriculture, and drivers on regional climate.

关键词： Climate change   Agriculture   Ecosystem studies   Farms  

摘要： Climate change will have serious repercussions for agriculture, ecosystems, and farmer livelihoods in Central America. Smallholder farmers are particularly vulnerable due to their reliance on agriculture and ecosystem services for their livelihoods. There is an urgent need to develop national and local adaptation responses to reduce these impacts, yet evidence from historical climate change is fragmentary. Modeling efforts help bridge this gap. Here, we review the past decade of research on agricultural and ecological climate change impact models for Central America. The results of this review provide insights into the expected impacts of climate change and suggest policy actions that can help minimize these impacts. Modeling indicates future climate-driven changes, often declines, in suitability for Central American crops. Declines in suitability for coffee, a central crop in the regional economy, are noteworthy. Ecosystem models suggest that climate-driven changes are likely at low- and high-elevation montane forest transitions. Modeling of vulnerability suggests that smallholders in many parts of the region have one or more vulnerability factors that put them at risk. Initial adaptation policies can be guided by these existing modeling results. At the same time, improved modeling is being developed that will allow policy action specifically targeted to vulnerable groups, crops, and locations. We suggest that more robust modeling of ecological responses to climate change, improved representation of the region in climate models, and simulation of climate influences on crop yields and diseases (especially coffee leaf rust) are key priorities for future research.

关键词： 气候变化   农业经济   农业生产  

摘要： 以全球变暖为主要特征的气候变化已经成为世界各国关注的焦点,我国气候变化主要表现在气温上升、降水不均、海平面上升、极端气候或天气事件频发等几个方面。这些气候变化不仅破坏了农业生产系统,减弱了农业生产能力,而且直接影响了农作物的品质。基于此,我们要在积极调整农业结构布局的前提下,加大农业科技和农田水利基础设施投入,同时建立农业气象灾害保险制度,为农业经济的可持续发展提供多方保障。