关键词： 气候变化   农业气象灾害   不利影响   防灾措施   山东莘县  

摘要： 全球气候变暖、各地区降水减少已经成为气候变化的主要特点,对1995—2015年莘县的气象观测资料进行统计分析。结果表明,莘县的气候发生了明显的变化,暖冬现象越来越明显,年降水量呈现逐年下降趋势,影响莘县的主要农业气象灾害发生了相应变化。为此,提出相应的对策,以避免或减轻灾害对农业生产的影响,改善生态环境,检测、预防和控制气象灾害。

关键词： Floating agriculture   Climate change   Flood   Adaptation   Sustainable development   Bangladesh  

摘要： Global climate change is anticipated to intensify the vulnerability of Bangladesh (a low-lying country formed by the alluvial plain of the Ganges-Brahmaputra river systems) to floods and waterlogging, and therefore, the country needs to be equipped with adequate adaptation strategies, particularly those based on traditional knowledge and locally available materials. In this paper, we present a systematic and in-depth review of existing literature to examine the possibilities of indigenous floating agriculture as a technique for climate change adaptation and sustainable community development in Bangladesh. Our review indicates that the indigenous floating agriculture holds enough potential to help farming communities in the flood prone regions of Bangladesh to sustain lives and livelihoods during floods and long-term waterlogged conditions. This technique has a unique quality of providing a wide range of agricultural, environmental, economic, social and cultural benefits, which ultimately render it as an environmentally sound, economically feasible, and socially viable practice. Case studies on a number of promotional and experimental floating agriculture projects in different regions of Bangladesh revealed that the floating agriculture greatly supported farming communities to adapt to adverse waterlogged conditions by allowing vegetable production for daily consumption, income generation, community mobilization, and by increasing land-holding capacity. Along with providing food and nutrition security, this technique also strengthened the community capacity to grow and sustain agricultural practices in the subsequent floods and waterlogging conditions. Although this technique has a number of sustain ability challenges as highlighted in this study, many of these are possible to overcome through proper planning and long-term management initiatives. We recommend policy implications and future research needs that could be effectively utilized to render this technique as

关键词： Real options analysis   Climate change   Spatial   Biomass   Economic   Australia  

摘要： The economics of establishing perennial species as renewable energy feedstocks has been widely investigated as a climate change adapted diversification option for landholders, primarily using net present value (NPV) analysis. NPV does not account for key uncertainties likely to influence relevant landholder decision making. While real options analysis (ROA) is an alternative method that accounts for the uncertainty over future conditions and the large upfront irreversible investment involved in establishing perennials, there have been limited applications of ROA to evaluating land use change decision economics and even fewer applications considering climate change risks. Further, while the influence of spatially varying climate risk on biomass conversion economic has been widely evaluated using NPV methods, effects of spatial variability and climate on land use change have been scarcely assessed with ROA. In this study we applied a simulation-based ROA model to evaluate a landholder's decision to convert land from agriculture to biomass. This spatially explicit model considers price and yield risks under baseline climate and two climate change scenarios over a geographically diverse farming region. We found that underlying variability in primary productivity across the study area had a substantial effect on conversion thresholds required to trigger land use change when compared to results from NPV analysis. Areas traditionally thought of as being quite similar in average productive capacity can display large differences in response to the inclusion of production and price risks. The effects of climate change, broadly reduced returns required for land use change to biomass in low and medium rainfall zones and increased them in higher rainfall areas. Additionally, the risks posed by climate change can further exacerbate the tendency for NPV methods to underestimate true conversion thresholds. Our results show that even under severe drying and warming where crop yield

关键词： 农业效率   广西气候变化   Malmquist—DEA   回归分析  

摘要： 基于广西各地级市2006—2014年的面板数据,运用Malmquist-DEA方法测度广西各地区的农业生产效率并分析了其收敛情况,利用线性回归的方法研究了气候变化对广西全区及5大经济区域农业生产效率的影响。结果发现:全区年际全要素生产率年均下降0.9%,但呈现出先下降后上升趋势;农业生产效率存在收敛的趋势;总体上看,近年的气候变化对农业生产效率有负面影响。

关键词： journals   General interest   Water utilization   agricultural sector   Water resources management   Conflict (Psychology)   Essays   relieving   View   American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE)   Water Resources   Policies  

摘要： Forum papers are thought-provoking opinion pieces or essays founded in fact, sometimes containing speculation, on a civil engineering topic of general interest and relevance to the readership of the journal. The views expressed in this Forum article do not necessarily reflect the views of ASCE or the Editorial Board of the journal.

关键词： Climate change   Norway   Agriculture   Policy uncertainty   Modelling   LINGRA   CSM-CERES-Wheat   DSSAT  

摘要： Farmers are exposed to climate change and uncertainty about how that change will develop. As farm incomes, in Norway and elsewhere, greatly depend on government subsidies, the risk of a policy change constitutes an additional uncertainty source. Hence, climate and policy uncertainty could substantially impact agricultural production and farm income. However, these sources of uncertainty have, so far, rarely been combined in food production analyses. The aim of this study was to determine the effects of a combination of policy and climate uncertainty on agricultural production, land use, and social welfare in Norway. Output yield distributions of spring wheat and timothy, a major forage grass, from simulations with the weather driven crop models, CSM-CERES-Wheat and, LINGRA, were processed in the a stochastic version Jordmod, a price-endogenous spatial economic sector model of the Norwegian agriculture. To account for potential effects of climate uncertainty within a given future greenhouse gas emission scenario on farm profitability, effects on conditions that represented the projected climate for 2050 under the emission scenario Al B from the 4th assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and four Global Climate Models (GCM) was investigated. The uncertainty about the level of payment rates at the time farmers make their management decisions was handled by varying the distribution of payment rates applied in the jordmod model. These changes were based on the change in the overall level of agricultural support in the past. Three uncertainty scenarios were developed and tested: one with climate change uncertainty, another with payment rate uncertainty, and a third where both types of uncertainty were combined. The three scenarios were compared with results from a deterministic scenario where crop yields and payment rates were constant. Climate change resulted in on average 9% lower cereal production, unchanged grass production and more volatil

关键词： 农业气象灾害   气候变化   病虫害   粮食生产   农业生产   减产  

摘要： 引言 气候变化对于各地区的影响是在不同的层次层面的，在促进粮食生产使得产量增加的同时也有可能会导致粮食的减产。同时也有可能带来农业气象灾害和病虫害。所以气候的变化对于农业生产的影响是非常大的。

关键词： 气候变化   农业生产   影响   对策  

摘要： 农业是应对灾害最脆弱的产业,受气候变化的影响最大,目前辽宁处于农业结构战略性调整的关键时期,粮食安全生产任务艰巨,未来的气候变化仍然存在许多未知领域,对农业生产影响还存在相当大的不确定性,因此,我们迫切需要探索一条可持续发展道路,去适应和减缓气候变化。

关键词： 气候变化   农业适应性   适应性科学   研究进展   模型方法  

摘要： 农业对气候变化的适应性成为学术界关注的热点问题之一.本文从适应性概念演变,农业适应性影响因素,适应性措施,适应性评估,适应性政策形成框架等多个方面,对农业适应性的研究内容和方法进行系统地梳理,并对相关模型进行归类和重点阐述.梳理发现,农业适应性研究,理论上是基于可持续发展理论,逐步形成了农业适应性政策框架体系和农业适应性科学雏形;在方法上,既包含简单的定性定量分析,也存在复杂的集成评估模型;空间尺度涉及全球,地区,国家,地方和个人.基于此,本文从可持续发展理论出发,修订了农业适应性科学的研究框架,提出了未来农业适应性研究的方向,包括:形成农业适应性科学,构建农业适应性的方法论体系,展开农业适应性决策行为的研究和拓展农业适应性评估方法.

关键词： 气候变化   中国农业生产   影响  

摘要： 气候变化情况和我国的农业发展有着非常紧密的联系,因此需要人们对一些气候变化可能对中国农业生产造成的实际影响有一定的了解。本文主要从农业生产的角度出发,对气候变化对我国农业生产设计的生态环境,土地资源,气象资料等一些因素的影响。