关键词： Climate change  

摘要： We reviewed studies addressing the extent to which more integrated agricultural systems (IAS) have been found to be more resilient to climate variability and climate change than more specialized agricultural systems. We found limited literature directly addressing the topic, necessitating the use of proxy measures to enlarge the sample. Where necessary, we used agricultural system richness and diversity as proxies for the presence of the sort of synergistic relationships that typify IAS, interannual climate variability for climate change, and myriad agricultural indicators for resilience. We found that (1) 37 papers addressed the topic either through mathematical modeling or statistical modeling;(2) in the statistical papers, integration was overwhelmingly (n=17/24) associated with increased climate resilience;(3) these findings stemmed mainly from comparisons of more versus less diverse or rich farming systems, while few studies investigated the influence of farm system synergies on resilience;(4) yield, revenue, profit, and yield variance were all used to demonstrate resilience;(5) modeling studies tended to investigate resilience across multiple years, while most statistical approaches tracked single-year outcomes;(6) the IAS-climate resilience links demonstrated were not generalizable across units of analysis, spatiotemporal scale, and from autonomous to directed integration;and (7) few of the articles reviewed identified and measured the mechanism by which IAS were shown to have conferred resilience. Our findings reveal suggestive, although by no means conclusive, evidence that farm system integration can enhance resilience and highlight the need for research to test whether integration policies can have similar outcomes. (C) 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

关键词： 气候变化   农业影响   应对措施   沱沱河区  

摘要： 气候因素是自然资源中影响农业生产的最重要的因素之一。在我国古代就有着"靠天吃饭"的说法,这个"天"就是指气候条件,虽然在现代社会中人与自然斗争的能力有了很大的提高,但气候状况对于农业的发展仍然起着举足轻重的作用。气候条件提供的光、热、水、空气等能量和物质,对农业生产类型、种植制度、布局结构、生产潜力、发展远景以及对农业产品的数量、质量和分布情况都起着决定性的作用。

关键词： Climate change   CO2 fertilization effects   Agricultural production   Welfare  

摘要： Cutting-edge contributions intended to guide major decisions on investment and energy policy is relevant for climate change research. This study develops an innovative approach that combines three physical climate simulations (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory model, Goddard Institute of Space Studies model, and the United Kingdom Meteorological Office climate model) with a general equilibrium model of global trade in order to study the real economic impacts of climate change. For the most part, climate change projected up to the year 2060 leads to welfare gains in the range of 0.07-1.4%, and welfare losses between 0.04 and 2.2% in some cases. All three climate simulations, point to welfare gains in China and marginal losses in low- and middle-income countries as a result of climate change. These findings underscore the importance of properly accounting for the direct effect of CO2 on crop growth and farm level adaptation, as ignoring these leads to substantial welfare losses in all examined regions. While a more systematic trade-off analysis is required for making strong generalizations, the broadest conclusion from the applied models is that, as long as CO2 fertilization effects and farm level adaptation are fairly included with the simulations, global agriculture does not appear to be particularly threatened by climate change. For this reason, agricultural policies aimed at mitigating CO2 emissions but problematic to food security, especially in developing countries, should be treated with caution. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词： 气候变化   农业研究   国际组织   会议总结   巴塞罗纳   澳大利亚   尼日利亚   专家学者  

摘要： 1概况 第2届农业与气候变化会议（2^nd Agrieulture and Climate Change Conference）于2017年3月26-28日在西班牙锡切斯（近巴塞罗纳）举行。来自国际农业研究磋商组织、美国、英国、德国、法国、中国、日本、韩国、澳大利亚、墨西哥、印度、西班牙、瑞典、尼日利亚、肯尼亚等20多个国家和国际组织的逾200位农业与气候变化领域的专家学者参加了此次会议，并就当前气候变化与农业领域最新的研究进展进行了深入的交流和讨论。

关键词： 气候变化   气候变暖   农业气象灾害   极端气候事件   适应  

摘要： 现阶段的研究显示,气候变化对我国的农作物种植和农业气候资源造成很重要的影响。本文对气象灾害中的时间变化趋势进行了具体的分析,对农作物造成的影响以及相关的解决措施进行了阐述。

关键词： 气候变化   中国   农业生产   影响   进展  

摘要： 在社会全面发展的今天,气候的全面变化对中国农业生产产生了极大的影响。为了全面降低气候对农业的影响,需要采用不同的方式降低气候变化的影响。主要针对气候变化对中国农业生产的影响进行了分析,并提出了相应的优化措施。

关键词： DNDC   N2O emissions   Lint yield   Plastic film mulching   Climate change  

摘要： The denitrification-decomposition (DNDC) model is a useful tool for integrating the effects of agricultural practices and climate change on soil nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from agricultural ecosystems. In this study, the DNDC model was evaluated against observations and used to simulate the effect of plastic mulching on soil N2O emissions and crop growth. The DNDC model performed well in simulating temporal variations in N2O emissions and plant growth during the observation period, although it slightly underestimated the cumulative N2O emissions, and was able to simulate the effects of plastic mulching on N2O emissions and crop yield. Both the observations and simulations demonstrated that the application of plastic film increased cumulative N2O emissions and cotton lint yield compared with the non-mulched treatment. The sensitivity test showed that the N2O emissions and lint yield were sensitive to changes in climate and management practices, and the application of plastic film made the N2O emissions and lint yield less sensitive to changes in temperature and irrigation. Although the simulations showed that the beneficial impacts of plastic mulching on N2O emissions were not gained under high fertilizer and irrigation scenarios, our simulations suggest that the application of plastic film effectively reduced soil N2O emissions while promoting yields under suitable fertilizer rates and irrigation. Compared with the baseline scenario, future climate change significantly increased N2O emissions by 15 17% without significantly influencing the lint yields in the non-mulched treatment;in the mulched treatment, climate change significantly promoted the lint yield by 5-6% and significantly reduced N2O emissions by 14% in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Overall, our results demonstrate that the application of plastic film is an efficient way to address increased N2O emissions and simultaneously enhance crop yield in the future. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

关键词： Climate change   Adaptation   Agriculture   Farmers   Experience   Behavior  

摘要： Farmers are accustomed to coping with year-to-year changes in climate, but climate change is expected to accelerate the need and magnitude of farmers' adaptation (Wheeler and Tiffin, 2009). Based on a survey of farmers across Denmark (1053 responses), this paper assesses how farmers' perceive climate change, weigh its attendant risks, and envision the barriers to adaptation as these factors stand to affect their likelihood to undertake adaptive action in the Global North. Descriptive statistics and an ordered probit model were used to disentangle the magnitude and direction of the cognitive factors underpinning farmers' likelihood to adapt. We also differentiate between adaptation to positive and negative potential impacts of climate change and provide important new insights on loss aversion and, more specifically, the conditions under which loss aversion may give way to a preference for gains. Our results indicate that Danish farmers are not terribly concerned about climate change impacts and perceive many barriers to adaptation, yet they indicate a moderate likelihood to undertake adaptive action in the future, particularly to potential opportunities from climate change impacts. However, we also find that the more concerned a fanner is about climate change, the more he is likely to adapt in response to negative climate impacts the balance between loss aversion and gain preferences appears to depend on context. In either case, Danish farmers appear to prefer incremental and flexible adaptations in the face of uncertain future climate change impacts.

关键词： Climate change and variability   General equilibrium   Agriculture   Poverty   Food security   Niger  

摘要： This study explores the potential economic and social effects induced by a possible future deterioration of weather conditions on Niger's agriculture. Our scenarios over a 25 year period rely on both long term climate change deterministic features and climate variability stochastic features which take into account a higher than normal frequency of severe droughts. Using a microsimulated Dynamic Recursive Computable General Equilibrium model, we show how a long run mean decrease in main crop yields could adversely affect growth, poverty and food security in the country and how more severe drought would worsen these negative effects. However, we also show that there would appear to be some room for manoeuvre for coping strategies for Niger such as improving the rural road network, adopting modern crop varieties or, to a lesser extent, extending irrigation capacity.