关键词： 山西省   春季气候变化   农业生产   具体影响  

摘要： 春季降雨与春季气温共同构成了春季气候的核心要素。对于山西省来讲,由于具备独特的地形与地势,因此春季气候也呈现了多样化的波动状态。为此在推行农业生产的全过程中,农户以及有关部门都要密切关注各个时间段的气候变化,因地制宜开展全过程的农业生产。

关键词： 气候变化   农业生产   农业灾害   种植制度  

摘要： 农业是人类社会经济发展的基础,也是对气候变化最敏感的领域之一,任何微小的气候变化都会对农业生产带来潜在或显著的影响。随着全球气候变化的不断持续,气候的异常变化对我国农业生产影响越来越大。当前气候变化对农业生产影响的研究主要集中在农业生长潜力、农业气候资源环境、农业种植制度和结构等方面,均不同程度地对我国粮食安全、农业经济造成损失。因此,科学合理的深入研究气候变化对我国农业光、温、水、土壤等农业生产要素的影响,揭示农业气象灾害和病虫害发生的机理,分析和模拟气候变化对我国农业生产的影响具有重大的科学价值和现实意义。采用文献综述和比较研究的方法,探讨了气侯变化对农业生产影响的主要研究方法以及气候变化对农业生产潜力、农业生产环境、种植制度、农业经济的影响,指出了当前气候变化对农业生产影响研究中存在的问题,提出了今后的研究方向。

关键词： 气候变化   农业风险   天气指数保险   保险设计  

摘要： 农业生产面临的主要风险是天气风险,天气指数保险成为转移农业天气风险的有效路径。通过对传统农业保险和天气指数保险进行比较分析,指出天气指数保险的多项优势。以河南省干旱灾害为例,分析干旱灾害与农业损失之间的关系,并简单设计了河南省玉米干旱灾害天气指数保险,在一定程度上能为制定有关政策提供理论参考,有助于利用天气指数保险应对农业天气风险、保障粮食安全。

关键词： 气候变化   年降水量   亩产量  

摘要： 通过收集大同市2000-2012年的气象数据及同期农业数据,采用趋势分析法等对气候的年季变化对农作物亩产量的影响进行分析。结果表明:降水量变化与农作物亩产量变化关系较为密切,降水量的多少是影响农作物产量的主要因素。

关键词： 周口市   气候变化   农业生产   对策  

摘要： 根据周口市1966—2016年的逐年平均气温、降水、日照等气象资料,对周口市近50年的气候变化特征进行统计分析。结果表明:近50年来周口市年平均气温呈逐步上升的趋势,特别是20世纪90年代后期至21世纪00年代中期,气温升高明显;春、冬季平均气温上升趋势较为明显,夏季呈降温趋势。年降水总量整体呈小幅上升趋势,春季降水量呈减少趋势,夏、秋、冬季均呈上升趋势,尤其是夏季最为明显,且对全年降水影响显著。年照时数呈明显减少的趋势,四季中,除春季日照时数减少趋势略小,其他季节减少趋势均较大。同时分析了气候变化对农业生产的利弊影响,并提出相应的措施,为合理利用当地气候资源提供科学依据。

关键词： Ricardian analysis   Climate change   European agriculture   Climate change economics   Quantile regression  

摘要： This research estimates the impact of climate on European agriculture using a continental scale Ricardian analysis. Climate, soil, geography and regional socio-economic variables are matched with farm level data from 41,030 farms across Western Europe. We demonstrate that a median quantile regression outperforms OLS given farm level data. The results suggest that European farms are slightly more sensitive to warming than American farms with impacts from 5 to 32 % by 2100 depending on the climate scenario. Farms in Southern Europe are predicted to be particularly sensitive, suffering losses of 5 to 9 % per degree Celsius.

关键词： 气候变化   趋势   干旱  

摘要： 通过对吉林省梨树县气象局1961-2016年的气温、降水资料等数据进行分析,发现梨树县气温明显升高,降水明显减少,干旱出现频繁。这严重影响了农作物的生长,造成不同程度的减产。气象部门为此要提前做好干旱的预报服务工作,为指导本地区农业生产提供可靠的决策依据。

关键词： 气候变化   农业气候资源   东北地区   数据同化  

摘要： 为探求未来气候变化对东北地区农业气候资源的影响,本文基于区域气候模式系统输出的东北地区IPCC AR5提出的低辐射和高辐射强迫RCP_4.5(低排放)、RCP_8.5(高排放)情景下2005-2099年气象资料,通过与东北地区1961-2010年91个气象站点观测资料同化,分析了历史资料(Baseline)、RCP_4.5、RCP_8.5情景下东北地区农业热量资源和降水资源空间分布及其变化趋势。结果表明:(1)年均温度空间分布自南向北降低,未来各地区温度均有升高,RCP_8.5情景下升温更明显,Baseline情景年均温度为7.70℃,RCP_4.5和RCP_8.5年均温度分别为9.67℃、10.66℃;其他农业热量资源随温度变化一致,具体≥10℃初日提前3 d、4 d,初霜日推迟2 d、6 d,生长季日数延长4 d、10 d,积温增加400℃·d、700℃·d;水资源稍有增加,但不明显。(2)历史增温速率为0.35℃/10a,未来增温速率最快为RCP_8.5情景0.48℃/10a,高于RCP_4.5的0.19℃/10a。21世纪后期,RCP_8.5增温趋势明显快于RCP_4.5,北部地区增温更加速。其他农业热量资源随温度变化趋势相一致,但具体空间分布有所不同。生长季降水总体呈增加趋势,但不显著,年际间变化较大;东部地区降水增加,西部减少。未来东北地区总体向暖湿方向发展,热量资源整体增加,但与降水的不匹配可能将会对农业生产造成不利的影响。

关键词： Agriculture   Primary commodity   Trade   Environment   Economic development   Instrumental variables technique  

摘要： The increasing demand for agricultural products partly due to the high population growth requires agriculture to struggle for productivity improvement. However, productivity search is constrained by environmental preoccupations, raising the question of agricultural development models to be adopted to increase productivity while limiting environmental consequences. This paper examines the role of market orientation by assessing the effect of agricultural commodity export on greenhouse gas emissions relatively to local market oriented agricultural production model. Using panel data from 1986 to 2010 for 136 countries around the world, and accurate instrumental variables technique, the findings suggest that the proportion of primary commodity export in agricultural production increases greenhouse gas emissions. These results are robust to different sources of agricultural export and environmental data, and to the inclusion of additional control variables. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

关键词： Developing countries  

摘要： In the mid-2000s, several highly-cited papers called for improving conceptual coherence and methodological transparency in vulnerability research to support greater policy relevance. As reducing vulnerability rises on political agendas, identifying empirically validated measures will become increasingly important in the design and evaluation ofmulti-site and multi-scale programmatic interventions. Using a systematic review methodology, we analyze the current range of conceptual frameworks, operationalizations and research methodologies as used in empirical studies of local-level vulnerability in agricultural settings. Detailed analysis of theories and methods provides a platform for moving toward reporting that supports valid comparisons between disparate studies. This in turn, enables the design and implementation of empirically-informed programmatic interventions. The results show that earlier concerns remain relevant. Even the best reported cases do not support aggregated analysis because conceptual ambiguity and methodological heterogeneity renders each study effectively unique. While conceptualization is broadly consolidating around the IPCC framework, declaration of that framework does not predict consistent operationalization. Furthermore, emerging alternative frameworks, especially Vulnerability as Expected Poverty, reveal important limitations of the IPCC framework. Findings also highlight that reporting practices in vulnerability research perpetuate problematic ambiguity. When designing and reporting research, we recommend addressing six key questions that can help specify the objectives of the study: (1) Is this system vulnerable? (2) To what is this system vulnerable? (3) How vulnerable is this system? (4)What is causing this system to be vulnerable? (5) How is vulnerability distributed within the system? (6) What is causing the observed distribution of vulnerability within the system? (C) 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.