关键词： 气候变化   农业气候资源   栽培格局   甘肃省   对策  

摘要： 基于甘肃省80个地面气象观测站1961—2014年气象观测资料和玉米、春小麦、冬小麦、马铃薯的区划指标,分1961—1986(时段Ⅰ)和1987—2014年(时段Ⅱ)2个不同时段,分析气候变化对甘肃省农业气候资源变化特征和主要粮食作物潜在栽培格局的影响。研究发现:时段Ⅱ较时段Ⅰ平均气温、负积温、≥0℃积温和≥10℃积温分别增加0.83℃、113.9℃·d、290℃·d和180℃·d,降水量气候倾向率为-34—16mm/10a,整体表现为减少趋势。时段Ⅱ较时段Ⅰ春小麦不适宜种植区面积显著增加约9%,最适宜、适宜、次适宜种植区面积分别减少1.4%、4.1%和4.8%,其中以河西走廊和陇中黄土高原变化最为显著。冬小麦适宜和次适宜种植区面积分别增加6%和3.4%,最适宜、可种植和不适宜种植区面积分别减少0.4%、3.5%和5.7%,其中以陇中地区变化最为显著。玉米最适宜和可种植区面积分别增加13%和7%。适宜、次适宜和不适宜种植区面积分别减少11%、2%和7%,其中以河西灌区变化最为显著。马铃薯最适宜和适宜种植区面积分别减少3.8%和0.7%,次适宜和可种植区面积分别增加3.5%和1.3%,其中以陇中黄土高原变化最为显著。最后提出适应气候变化调整农业结构和栽培格局的对策建议。

关键词： 越南农业   湄公河三角洲   影响   措施  

摘要： 农业生产在湄公河三角洲(MRD)对社会-经济发展过程中起着重要的作用。近年来由于气候的变化使MRD的农业面临重大损失。旱季的干旱和咸潮入侵,雨季的发生洪水降低了劳动生产率,农产品的质量,增加农民的投资成本等农业生产效率差,影响农民的生计。本文除了指出气候变化对MRD的影响之外,还提出MRD农业结构调整克服气候变化的一些措施。

关键词： 气候变化   农业气象灾害   病虫害   全球变暖  

摘要： 气候变化对我国农业气象灾害及病虫害的影响是全方位、多层次的,既有正面的影响又有负面的影响。本文分析了气候变化对农业气象灾害的影响,然后探讨了气候变化对病虫害的影响。

关键词： 气候变化   农业气象灾害   病虫害   影响  

摘要： 在农业的生产方面,对气候的要求很高,所以为了保证各个地方的农业收成率,就要对气候的变化进行研究。虽然气候可以让农作物的收成提高,但与此同时也有可能带来自然灾害或者一些病虫灾害,这对农作物是很不利的。现在随着全球气候变暖,病虫的发生率也在不断的提高,严重的影响了我国的农作物生长,另外也加大了预防害虫工作的难度,所以要对气候变化所产生的影响进行分析。

关键词： Adaptation planning   Agriculture   Robust action   Network analysis   Climate change   Ghana  

摘要： This paper introduces a five-step framework, namely the Robust Adaptation Planning (RAP) framework, to plan and respond to the 'grand challenge' of climate change. RAP combines, under a unified framework, elements from robust action, participatory planning and network theory to capture the different motives, perception, and roles of actors that are important for climate change adaptation. RAP leverages existing structures and networks and involves diverse actors to plan, sequence and time strategies across multiple levels (i.e. from local to national). Actors identify adaptation interventions and important actor relations to develop wide networks, highlighting potential pathways for connecting action from central policy to local implementation (and vice versa). Comparing these proposed participatory structures with existing structures reveals actors deemed important for delivering adaptation, as well as gaps and overlaps in their relations. The end result is a robust plan covering many perspectives and local realities for both relieving immediate and adapting to longer-term consequences of climate change. We applied the RAP framework in Ghana's agricultural climate change adaptation regime to demonstrate its usefulness as a means of planning adaptation interventions in a climate-vulnerable, multi-actor and multi-level setting. The application of the RAP framework in this paper highlights how it can: (1) visualise the adaptation space (and its different components), and reduce the complexity of implementing adaptation responses;(2) offer a shared space to actors from all administrative levels to think and create collective narratives for adaptation without demanding explicit consensus and;(3) identify key actors and actions through a collaborative planning process, and allocate responsibility for the smooth delivery of adaptation interventions.

关键词： Climate change   Crop productivity   Agrifood system   Bio-economic modelling   Carbon fertilization effects  

摘要： The biophysical and economic consequences of climate change for agriculture are surrounded by uncertainties. The evaluation of climate change impacts on global and regional agriculture has been" studied at length. In most cases, however, global and regional impacts are examined separately. Here we present a regionalized assessment for the 2030 time horizon covering the whole European Union while accounting for market feedback through international markets. To account for uncertainty on climate effects, we defined several simulation scenarios that differ as to climate projections and assumptions on the degree of carbon fertilization. Biophysical simulations show that crop productivity effects are largely determined by the degree of carbon fertilization, leading to decreased productivity in the absence of carbon fertilization and increased productivity otherwise. The magnitude of those effects differs across regions and crops, with maize being one of the most negatively affected in the EU. *** show that, while, on the whole, crop price effects attenuate the global impacts of climate change, aggregate results conceal significant regional disparities and their related trade adjustment. These results suggest that a multi-scale perspective is helpful for assessing climate change impacts on agriculture, as it will improve understanding of how regional and global agrifood markets respond to climate change and how these responses interact with each other.

关键词： CLIMATE change   NONFICTION  

关键词： Phosphorus  

摘要： Climate projections for the future indicate that the United Kingdom will experience hotter, drier summers and warmer, wetter winters, bringing longer dry periods followed by rewetting. This will result in changes in phosphorus (P) mobilization patterns that will influence the transfer of P from land to water. We tested the hypothesis that changes in the future patterns of drying-rewetting will affect the amount of soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) solubilized from soil. Estimations of dry period characteristics (duration and temperature) under current and predicted climate were determined using data from the UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) Weather Generator tool. Three soils (sieved < 2 mm), collected from two regions of the United Kingdom with different soils and farm systems, were dried at 25 degrees C for periods of 0, 2, 4, 5, 6, 8, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 60, and 90 d, then subsequently rewetted (50 mL over 2 h). The solubilized leachate was collected and analyzed for SRP. In the 2050s, warm period temperature extremes >25 degrees C are predicted in some places and dry periods of 30 to 90 d extremes are predicted. Combining the frequency of projected dry periods with the SRP concentration in leachate suggests that this may result overall in increased mobilization of P;however, critical breakpoints of 6.9 to 14.5 d dry occur wherein up to 28% more SRP can be solubilized following a rapid rewetting event. The precise cause of this increase could not be identified and warrants further investigation as the process is not currently included in P transfer models.

关键词： Climate change   Agriculture   Mitigation measures   Carbon sequestration   Abatement costs and benefits  

摘要： Agriculture and forestry activities are one of the many sources of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, but they are also sources of low-cost opportunities to mitigate these emissions compared to other economic sectors. This paper provides a first estimate of the potential for mitigation in the whole Spanish agriculture. A set of mitigation measures are selected for their cost-effectiveness and abatement potential and an efficient mix of these measures is identified with reference to a social cost of carbon of 40 sic/tCO(2)e. This mix of measures includes adjusting crop fertilization and managing forests for carbon sequestration. Results indicate that by using the efficient mix of mitigation measures the annual abatement potential could reach 10 million tCO(2)e, which represents 28% of current agricultural emissions in Spain. This potential could further increase if the social cost of carbon rises covering the costs of applying manure to crops. Results indicate also that economic instruments such as input and emission taxes could be only ancillary measures to address mitigation in agriculture. These findings can be used to support the mitigation efforts in Spain and guide policymakers in the design of country-level mitigation strategies. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

关键词： 气候变化   山西农业发展   减灾对策  

摘要： 文章将结合实际情况分析气候变化对山西农业发展产生的影响及减灾对策,旨在促进山西整体社会经济的不断发展。