关键词： 气候变化   农业生产   影响   山东滕州   1952—2014年  

摘要： 滕州市是农业生产基地,主产粮食和蔬菜。本文介绍了1952—2014年滕州市气候变化特点,分析了气候变化对滕州市农业生产的影响,为滕州市发展可持续农业提供参考。

关键词： climate adaptation   food production   land-use   policy   sustainability   WEF nexus  

摘要： The Water-Energy-Food (WEF) Nexus concept has great potential for understanding a region’s vulnerability to climate change. This paper examines individual components that form the supporting pillars of the nexus in Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries. An overview of specific CEE political environments that govern economic and environmental policies are examined to select several domains representing higher risks to society, environment and economies of selected countries, together with evaluation of extant interlinkages between climate change, agriculture and the WEF nexus. While a variety of studies quantify and analyze climate change impacts on water availability, crop yields, yield variability, or alternative energy needed to mitigate global warming effects, this paper shows there is no clear evidence of a nexus-based integration to help manage or mitigate extreme future climate change-related events in the region. The study provides a model for supporting WEF pillars and advances recommendations for consideration of the nexus approach in relation to climate adaptation.

关键词： 太平洋沿岸   气候变化   农业   经济   全球变暖   合作组织   赤道附近   水温变化  

摘要： 2017年8月25日，FAO在亚洲太平洋经济合作组织备灾工作组会议上表示，全球变暖预计将对水稻等作物的单产产生重大影响，对于赤道附近的国家尤其如此。与高纬度国家相比，全球变暖对农业产出的消极影响可能导致热带国家水稻、玉米和大豆等作物单产下降。另外，水温变化也会影响渔业的产量。

关键词： 农业气象灾害   气候变化   黑龙江省   农业生产   全球气候变暖   粮食主产区   正面影响   不稳定性  

摘要： 气候变化所造成的影响是多尺度，全方位，多层次的，并且存在正面影响和负面影响。气候变化，使得我国一部分粮食主产区生产得到了一定发展。但也会对一些地区的农业生产产生严重威胁。黑龙江省是我国农业大省，最近几年随着全球气候变暖，气候变化异常，对黑龙江省农业生产产生了不小影响，导致农业生产不稳定性。

关键词： 冬小麦   气候变化   品种更新   生育期   温度   降水量   产量  

摘要： 利用甘肃省通渭农业气象观测站1981—2010年的气象和农气观测资料,运用相关分析、趋势分析和方差分析等方法,就气候变化与品种变化对黄土高原半干旱雨养农业区冬小麦的影响进行了初步研究。结果表明:近30年来该地区在冬小麦生育期内温度升高(增长率为0.225℃·10a^(-1))、降水量减少(减少率为23.879mm·10a^(-1)),气候呈现暖干化趋势。降水的减少与品种更新均导致冬小麦的生育期明显缩短。近30年来,甘肃省通渭县冬小麦产量增加了4 514.97 kg·hm^(-2),冬小麦生育期内温度的增加和降水量的减少对产量增加没有明显促进作用。冬小麦品种的改良可提高产量8.8%~132.0%,其变异系数在4.1%~65.6%之间。方差分析结果表明,不同品种间的平均产量之间存在显著的差异(F=4.056,P<0.01)。通过分析产量在年际间、气候要素间和品种间的变化,可以发现品种的更新是冬小麦产量显著提高的原因。

关键词： LUCC   农业扩张   气候变化   NDVI  

摘要： 大规模的农业扩张和全球气候变化导致东北地区发生剧烈的土地利用/土地覆盖变化。本研究分析了研究区1976—2008年的土地利用变化和生长季各月气温的变化趋势,并结合农业扩张程度,探究LUCC对农业扩张和气候变化的响应,为指导农业发展规划和保障国家粮食安全提供理论依据。结果表明,1976—2008年农田面积逐步增加,生长季气温一直呈上升趋势。1976—2001年生长季气温的上升趋势不稳定,气温变化程度较大;2001—2008年,农业扩张放缓,生长季气温上升趋势显著,且上升趋势一直增加,气温变化比上一时期更稳定;且这两个时期农业扩张和气候变化对土地利用强度的影响在南北和东西方向上均存在明显差异。

关键词： reservoir   climate change   irrigation water requirement   water supply capacity   irrigation scheduling   Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)   South Korea  

摘要： Reservoirs are principal water resources that supply irrigation water to paddy fields and play an important role in water resources management in South Korea. For optimal irrigation reservoir operation and management, it is necessary to determine the duration of irrigation water shortages. Management of reservoir operation and irrigation scheduling should take into consideration essential variables that include the water supply in a reservoir and the water demand in the associated irrigation district. The agricultural water supply and demand show different patterns based on the variability and uncertainty of meteorological and hydrological phenomena. The duration of excessive water supply can be quantitatively determined through analysis of deviations and changes in the timing of agricultural water supply and demand. In this study, we introduce an approach to assess the vulnerable seasons of paddy irrigation to enable more effective operation and management of reservoirs. The vulnerable seasons were evaluated through comparison of the potential water supply capacity and irrigation water requirements based on water budget analysis via a time series change analysis. We have assessed the changing in the total duration and duration shifts of the vulnerable irrigation seasons for four agricultural reservoirs using past observed data (1981-2010) from meteorological stations maintained by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and projected climate change scenarios (2011-2100) as depicted by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) emission scenarios. For irrigation vulnerable seasons under both the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, the results showed periods of significant increases in which total vulnerable seasons compared to the historical period;the longest duration of vulnerability occurred during the 2071-2100 period under the RCP 8.5. Identification of the vulnerable seasons for paddy irrigation can be applied in agricultural water management to more ef

关键词： agriculture   nutrient loading   water quality   climate change  

摘要： Human activities, in particular agricultural production, interfere with natural cycles of nutrient elements, nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P), leading to growing concerns about water quality degradation related to excessive nutrient loadings. Increases in agricultural production in response to population growth and wealth generation further increase risks associated with nutrient pollution. This paper presents results from projections of nutrient exports from global agricultural crop and pasture systems to the water environment generated using a process-based modeling approach. Brazil, China, India and the United States account for more than half of estimated global N and P loadings in the base year. Each country boasts large agriculture centers where high calculated loading values are found. Rapid growth in global agricultural nutrient loadings is projected. Growth of agricultural pollution loading is fastest in the group of low-income developing countries and loading growth rates also vary substantially with climate change scenario. Counter measures need to be taken to address the environmental risks associated with the projected rapid increase of agricultural nutrient loadings.

关键词： Climate change   Adaptation   Agriculture   Formal institution   Bangladesh  

摘要： Bangladesh is very vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, and adaptation is emerging as a key policy response. Place based programs that build adaptive capacity are needed. This paper explores the effectiveness of formal institutions in climate change adaptation for agriculture from the perspectives of farmers and institutional communities of practice within two drought-prone areas in Bangladesh. Our findings show that formal institutions via their communities of practice play an important role in building place based capacity for mitigation and adaptation strategies in agriculture. Over-emphasis on technology, lack of acknowledgement of cultural factors and a failure of institutional communities of practice to mediate and create linkages with informal institutional communities of practice remain barriers. We argue that in order for formal institutions to play an ongoing and crucial role in building adaptive agriculture in Bangladesh, they must incorporate cultural mechanisms and build partnerships with more community based informal institutions. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词： Soil drought   Climate change   Agricultural practice   Water consumption   Semiarid area in northern China  

摘要： Increased water scarcity has led to a decade-long soil drought in the semiarid area of northern China, which caused food insecurity in this region. However, there is a lack of sufficient observational evidence about how climate change and agricultural practices have interactively affected this soil drought. Long-term in situ soil moisture measurements collected in agricultural experimental plots indicate that the mean temperature and precipitation during the growing season have reduced soil moisture by 11.2%, and agricultural practices have aggravated the soil drying trend in the 0-100 mm soil layer over the past three decades. Our results also show that planting water-expensive crops (e.g., potato and maize) may aggravate soil drought. Crop rotation increases soil water consumption by 8.9-12.6% over continuous cropping. Excessive fertilizer use increases water consumption by 25.4-46.9% and decreases the water use efficiency (WUE) by 14.6-35.3%, while tillage accounts for the consumption of 10.3% more soil moisture than no-tillage. Our results indicate that agricultural practices, including crop rotation, a high fertilizer input, and tillage, may increase water consumption and aggravate soil drying. Our findings call for effective strategies for mitigating soil drought in semiarid regions, such as an adjustment of the cropping system, reduced fertilizer use, and improved conservation tillage.