关键词： Agricultural policy   Climate change   Bio-economic model   Integrated assessment  

摘要： The European Union (EU) has recently reformed its Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and, in parallel, has completely abolished the production quotas for milk. These changes will have important consequences for the use of land, of inputs (i.e., water and chemicals) and on the economic performance of rural areas. It is of interest to evaluate the integrated impact of these modifications and of climate change (CC), since the latter could neutralize or reverse some desired effects of the former. For this purpose, this paper evaluates the potential impact of the abolition of milk quotas, as well as of the reform of the first pillar of CAP in two different climate scenarios (present and near future). A bio-economic model simulates the possible adaptation of various farm types in an agricultural area of Southern Italy to these changes, given the available technological options and current market conditions. The main results show that the considered policy changes have small positive impacts on economic and environmental factors of the study area. However, some farm types are more affected. CC can effectively attenuate or reverse several of those effects, especially in some farm types. These results can inform the planning of future changes to the CAP, which will have to act in the context of deeper climate alteration.

关键词： Development   Distribution   Empowerment   Environment   Inequality   Poverty  

摘要： People, places, and production contributing the least to climate change will suffer the most. This calls for adaptation as a key climate change response. But adaptation is surrounded by problems. Finance is uncertain and fragmented, mainstreaming into development is complicated, and technical solutions often overshadow existing social relations and institutions. From a gender perspective, and as a critical research initiative to support the building of sustainability science as an umbrella field, this article raises three pertinent questions on adaptation in the global South: what is its purpose, how can development inform it, and what institutions in terms of rights and responsibilities are core to it? Focusing on sub-Saharan small-scale agriculture, three main points emerge. Regarding the purpose, adaptation should be a transformative pathway out of poverty, ill-health, and food insecurity. Regarding development, adaptation can learn from how development theory, policy, and practice have addressed women, gender, and environment in varied settings and debates. Regarding core institutions, adaptation must address gender regimes that regulate access to, use of, and control over resources, especially those defining land distribution, labour division, and strategic decision-making power. To conclude, I propose gender-informed research questions for further inquiry.

关键词： climate change   agriculture   precipitation   land use change   attribution   Midwest  

摘要： Both land use changes and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have significantly modified regional climate over the last century. In the central United States, for example, observational data indicate that rainfall increased, surface air temperature decreased, and surface humidity increased during the summer over the course of the twentieth century concurrently with increases in both agricultural production and global GHG emissions. However, the relative contributions of each of these forcings to the observed regional changes remain unclear. Results of both regional climate model simulations and observational analyses suggest that much of the observed rainfall increaseas well as the decrease in temperature and increase in humidityis attributable to agricultural intensification in the central United States, with natural variability and GHG emissions playing secondary roles. Thus, we conclude that twentieth century land use changes contributed more to forcing observed regional climate change during the summer in the central United States than increasing GHG emissions.

关键词： Ricardian analysis   climate change   Italian agriculture   regional analysis   panel data  

摘要： This research investigates the potential impact of warming on Italian agriculture. Using a detailed dataset of 16,000 farms across Italy, the study examines likely warming impacts in different regions and for different sectors of Italian agriculture. The study finds that farm net revenues are very sensitive to seasonal changes in temperature and precipitation. Livestock and crop farms have different responses to climate as do rainfed farms and irrigated crop farms. The overall results suggest mild consequences from marginal changes in climate but increasingly harmful effects from more severe climate scenarios.

关键词： climate change   water management   WEAP21 model   scenario analysis   Urmia Lake   sustainability index  

摘要： In arid and semi-arid areas, unsustainable development of irrigated agriculture has reduced the water level of large lakes such as Aral, Urmia, Hamoon, and Bakhtegan. Urmia Lake, as a hyper saline and very shallow lake, located in the northwest of Iran, has water level reductions of about 40 cm each year over the past two decades. In this research, the indices of environmental and agricultural sustainability are evaluated using performance criteria influenced by climate change and water management strategies for the Zarrinehrud and Siminehrud River basins as the largest sub-basin of Urmia Lake basin. Modeling of hydrologic behavior of these basins is performed using WEAP21 model. The model is analyzed for three future emission scenarios (A2, A1B, and B1), for the period of 2015-2040 and five water management scenarios: (1) keeping the existing situation;(2) crop pattern change;(3) improving the conveyance and distribution efficiency;(4) combining the improvement of conveyance and distribution efficiency with improving the application efficiency using modern technology;and (5) the combination of crop pattern change with the improvement of total irrigation efficiency. The results show that the highest values of indices of environmental sustainability and agricultural sustainability are related to the scenario of combining the crop pattern change with improving the total irrigation efficiency under the B1 emission scenario (B1S4).

关键词： Mediterranean   reservoirs   water scarcity   irrigation requirement   evaporation   resilience  

摘要： Climate change in Mediterranean countries is anticipated to have a strong impact on water availability by exacerbating drought conditions and water scarcity. In this context, efficient irrigation practices are becoming essential for sustaining crop production. This work assesses vulnerability of irrigated agriculture for six irrigation districts and their associated reservoirs in Mediterranean areas across Italy under climate change (1976-2005 versus 2036-2065;RCP 4.5 and 8.5), evaluating changes in irrigation requirements, evaporation from reservoirs, and the availability of freshwater supplies. Irrigation requirements are estimated through a crop water model (SIMETAW_R) integrated into a GIS platform, while inflows to reservoirs are hydrologically modelled as partitioning of precipitation contributing to runoff. Results are aggregated into indicators that show the general decreasing resilience and increasing vulnerability of irrigated agriculture under climate change conditions in each case study. The highest percentage of allowable water losses for irrigation is estimated in the Cuga-Alto Temo system, during the prolonged drought period, to be able to satisfy irrigation demand for less than a year. Climate change may only partially affect irrigation in resilient systems, in which storage capacity and the water level entering into the reservoir are considerably higher than the water distribution volumes.

关键词： LULUCF   Greenhouse gas   Histosol   Peatland   Organic soil   IWMS  

摘要： In 2014 temperate zone emission factor revisions were published in the IPCC Wetlands Supplement. Default values for direct CO2 emissions of artificially drained organic soils were increased by a factor of 1.6 for cropland sites and by factors ranging from 14 to 24 for grassland sites. This highlights the role of drained organic soils as emission hotspots and makes their rewetting more attractive as climate change mitigation measures. Drainage emissions of humic soils are lower on a per hectare basis and not covered by IPCC default values. However, drainage of great areas can turn them into nationally relevant emission sources. National policy making that recognizes the importance of preserving organic and humic soils' carbon stock requires data that is not readily available. Taking Ireland as a case study, this article demonstrates how a dataset of policy relevant information can be generated. Total area of histic and humic soils drained for agriculture, resulting greenhouse gas emissions and climate change mitigation potential were assessed. For emissions from histic soils, calculations were based on IPCC emission factors, for humic soils, a modified version of the ECOSSE model was used. Results indicated 370,000 ha of histic and 426,000 ha of humic soils under drained agricultural land use in Ireland (8% and 9% of total farmed area). Calculated annual drainage emissions were 8.7 Tg CO(2)e from histic and 1.8 Tg CO(2)e from humic soils (equal to 56% of Ireland's agricultural emissions in 2014, excluding emissions from land use). If half the area of drained histic soils was rewetted, annual saving would amount to 3.2 Tg CO(2)e. If on half of the deep drained, nutrient rich grasslands drainage spacing was decreased to control the average water table at 25 cm or higher, annual savings would amount to 0.4 Tg CO(2)e.

关键词： 气候变化   变暖   农业生态  

摘要： 我国气候变化总的趋势是气温升高,降水减少。气候变化背景下,极端天气事件趋多趋强,导致气象灾害发生频率、强度和区域分布变得更加复杂。本文综述气候变化对环境及农业生态的影响。

关键词： 气候变化   农业气象灾害   病虫害   影响  

摘要： 近年来,人们肆意地破坏环境,导致气候急剧恶化,造成了农业气象灾害与病虫害地频繁发生,且这种情况愈演愈烈,从而使我国的农业生产安全置于不利的地位,如今最受瞩目的问题就是全球变暖,这种情况使农业病虫害的几率急剧增加,且危害的范围越来越大,危害的程度加深,因此有效保护环境以及对气象灾害和病虫害进行有效地防御是至关重要的,本文主要阐述我国的气候现状以及农业气象灾害和病虫害的各种影响。

摘要： Farmers pay close attention to their environment and are increasingly experiencing and recognising the impacts of climate change. Drawing from the work of Goran Therborn, this article examines farmers' climate change beliefs, explores emerging contradictions between conservative ideological positions and personal experiences, and looks for signs of ideological transformation. Data from 154 personal interviews with corn farmers in the Midwestern United States reveals that many farmers believe that humans play some role in climate change and that climate change has serious and negative impacts on agriculture. Interview data also illustrates how farmers contradict themselves when discussing their positions on climate change and suggests that farmers may be losing faith in political elites. As farmers continue to experience the impacts of climate change, they may find it increasingly difficult to support conservative positions. However, this study also reveals that, despite individual beliefs, the political economy of industrial agriculture will continue to constrain the adoption of climate change mitigation measures.