关键词： Choice experiment   Survey incentives   Response behavior   Climate change adaptation  

摘要： Psychological influences affect the way people value the environment. However, traditional economic valuation models often do not account for how people are asked about valuing the environment. We examined how valuations by Nepalese farmers differ based on how the questions are asked and which incentives are provided. In a face-to-face choice experiment, incentive receivers spent more time than incentive non-receivers answering the survey, but were not more likely to choose a status quo option. Prepaid survey incentives had minimal effect on the stated welfare measures. The results suggest that prepaid incentives increase response rates, but do not increase welfare estimates. The findings also strengthen the methodological validity of our results, which indicated that farmers are willing to pay a substantial amount to secure climate change adaptation benefits on their land.

关键词： River basins   Ecosystem management   Water requirements   Ecosystems   Resource management   Rivers   Forces (mechanics)   Arid environments   Ecological monitoring   Climate change   Water resources   Water resources management   Sustainable development   Arid regions   Case studies   Agricultural development   Regions   Agricultural management   Environmental changes   Sustainability   Ecological effects   Agricultural practices   Agriculture   Oases   Environmental impact   Agricultural ecosystems   Strategic management   Climatic changes  

摘要： Ecological deterioration in arid regions caused by agricultural development has become a global issue. Understanding water requirements of the oasis ecosystems and the influences of human agricultural activities and climate change is important for the sustainable development of oasis ecosystems and water resource management in arid regions. In this study, water requirements of the main oasis in Heihe River basin during 1986-2013 were analyzed and the amount showed a sharp increase from 10.8 x 108 m(3) in 1986 to 19.0 x 108 m(3) in 2013. Both human agricultural activities and climate change could lead to the increase in water requirement. To quantify the contributions of agricultural activities and climate change to the increase in water requirements, partial derivative and slope method were used. Results showed that climate change and human agricultural activities, such as oasis expansion and changes in land cropping structure, has contributed to the increase in water requirement at rates of 6.9, 58.1, and 25.3 %, respectively. Overall, human agricultural activities were the dominant forces driving the increase in water requirement. In addition, the contribution of oasis expanding to the increased water requirement was significantly greater than that of other concerned variables. This reveals that controlling the oasis scale is extremely important and effective for balancing water for agriculture and ecosystems and to achieving a sustainable oasis development in arid regions.

关键词： Climate change perception   Private adaptation   Public adaptation   Qualitative analysis   Adaptation stimulus   Adaptation effect  

摘要： Empirical findings on actors' roles and responsibilities in the climate change adaptation process are rare even though cooperation between private and public actors is perceived important to foster adaptation in agriculture. We therefore developed the framework SAER (Stimuli-Actions-Effects-Responses) to investigate perceived relationships between private and public climate change adaptation in agriculture at regional scale. In particular, we explore agricultural experts' perceptions on (i) climatic and non climatic factors stimulating private adaptation, (ii) farm adaption actions, (iii) potential on-farm and off-farm effects from adaptation, and (iv) the relationships between private and public adaptation. The SAER-framework is built on a comprehensive literature review and empirical findings from semi structured interviews with agricultural experts from two case study regions in Austria. We find that private adaptation is perceived as incremental, systemic or transformational. It is typically stimulated by a mix of bio-physical and socio-economic on-farm and off-farm factors. Stimulating factors related to climate change are perceived of highest relevance for systemic and transformational adaptation whereas already implemented adaptation is mostly perceived to be incremental. Perceived effects of private adaptation are related to the environment, weather and climate, quality and quantity of agricultural products as well as human, social and economic resources. Our results also show that public adaptation can influence factors stimulating private adaptation as well as adaptation effects through the design and development of the legal, policy and organizational environment as well as the provision of educational, informational, financial, and technical infrastructure. Hence, facilitating existing and new collaborations between private and public actors may enable farmers to adapt effectively to climate change. (C) 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词： 气候变化的影响   农业气象灾害   气候变化的情况  

摘要： 气候是影响农业生产的一个重要因素,但是由于人类对环境的破坏,全球变暖等一系列环境问题引起了气候变化的不稳定,导致农业气象灾害的加剧,而农业气象灾害的加剧也大大影响了农业的产量。为了最大程度上减少气候变化对农业生产的影响,需要采取科学的应对措施。

关键词： 气候变暖   病虫害   降水量   气象预测  

摘要： 农业是我国国民经济发展的支柱型产业,农业生产的状况对我国社会经济发展有着直观的影响。近年来全球气候变暖不断的加重,包头市的气候相较于过去也有了较为明显的变化,对农业生产活动产生了一定的影响。本文针对包头市以往气候条件和面临的农业生产问题做出分析,并提出相应对策。

关键词： 气候条件   农业生产   影响   对策  

摘要： 农作物生长与光照、温度及水分条件关系密切。本文介绍了影响农业生产的主要气象条件,分析了气候变化对农业生产的影响,并提出相应的对策,以确保农作物高产、丰收。

关键词： Climate change   Civil conflict   Rainfall  

摘要： Using unique data on conflict-related incidents in the Philippines, we exploit seasonal variation in the relationship between rainfall and agricultural production to learn about the mechanism through which rainfall affects civil conflict. We find that an increase in dry-season rainfall leads to an increase in agricultural production and dampens conflict intensity. By contrast, an increase in wet-season rainfall is harmful to crops and produces more conflict. Consistent with the hypothesis that rebel groups gain strength after a bad harvest, we find that negative rainfall shocks lead to an increase in conflict incidents initiated by insurgents but not by government forces. These results suggest that the predicted shift towards wetter wet seasons and drier dry seasons will lead to more civil conflict even if annual rainfall totals remain stable. We conclude that policies aimed at mitigating the effect of climate change on agriculture could have the added benefit of reducing civil conflict. (C) 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

关键词： climate change   impacts   mitigation   adaptation   research directions  

摘要： Climate change is not just a topic for the future-it is already producing real consequences. Economically, the issue has three principal dimensions: impacts, that is, how vulnerable are we;adaptation, that is, what can we do to reduce the impacts by altering operations;and mitigation, that is, what can we do to reduce the drivers causing climate change and thus the long-term extent of climate change? All of these issues have economic dimensions, including appraising damages and the value of effects reducing actions, as well as the formulation of efficient policies. Thus, it is not surprising that this is both an active agricultural economic research area and one with many more research possibilities. We review the impacts, adaptation, and mitigation literature, identifying issues, summarizing main findings, commenting on methods, and pointing out research needs, with a special focus on what agricultural/applied economists have to offer.

关键词： wetland   agriculture   LULCC   climate change   anthropogenic activities   Maxent model  

摘要： Influences of the increasing pressure of climate change and anthropogenic activities on wetlands ecosystems and agriculture are significant around the world. This paper assessed the spatiotemporal land use and land cover changes (LULCC), especially for conversion from marshland to other LULC types (e.g., croplands) over the Songnen and Sanjiang Plain (SNP and SJP), northeast China, during the past 35 years (1980-2015). The relative role of human activities and climatic changes in terms of their impacts on wetlands and agriculture dynamics were quantitatively distinguished and evaluated in different periods based on a seven-stage LULC dataset. Our results indicated that human activities, such as population expansion and socioeconomic development, and institutional policies related to wetlands and agriculture were the main driving forces for LULCC of the SJP and SNP during the past decades, while increasing contributions of climatic changes were also found. Furthermore, as few studies have identified which geographic regions are most at risk, how the future climate changes will spatially and temporally impact wetlands and agriculture, i.e., the suitability of wetlands and agriculture distributions under different future climate change scenarios, were predicted and analyzed using a habitat distribution model (Maxent) at the pixel-scale. The present findings can provide valuable references for policy makers on regional sustainability for food security, water resource rational management, agricultural planning and wetland protection as well as restoration of the region.

关键词： Adaptation   Agriculture   Climate variation   Climate risk   Demand   Fisheries   Food security   Resilience   Risk management   TaiCCAT's supportive system for decision-making (TSSDA)   Supply  

摘要： According to Food and Agriculture Organization and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports, climate change will lead to a severe food-supply problem. In the future, food production will continually decrease because of aggravated effects of climate change, causing food production to continually decrease. Food production will be unable to satisfy the demand of the global population, leading to a food-security crisis. As the world population continues to increase, the shortage of food will become increasingly severe, particularly for those located in "climate impact hotspots" of tropical, subtropical, small-island countries, and countries that are dependent on imports to meet domestic demand such as Taiwan. Numerous Taiwanese studies have suggested that agricultural and fishery productivity has declined because of climate variation, which may cause changes and instability in food quantity and quality, and increase deficiency and uncertainty in the food supply. Therefore, to discuss the risks posed by climate change to the stability of food supply and demand, this paper, taking Taiwan as a case, explored the impact of climate variation on food security and future adaptation strategies. TaiCCAT's supportive system for decision-making (TSSDA) was adopted here to assess and analyze the current situations of agricultural and fisheries production and supply, as well as future food supply risks, in addition to evaluating the deficiencies in the existing climate adaptation strategies in order to plan and revise feasible future adaptation alternatives. Based on the rule of risk management, the adaptation strategies recommended in this study were differentiated into two categories: proactive adaptation and planned adaptation. Proactive adaptation is emphasized to counter the uncertainty of food production, which increases the difficulty of production and necessity to import food. Conversely, planned adaptation can be used to manage the uncertainty of food supply to imp