关键词： Migration   Climate change   Adaptation   Experimentation   Agriculture   Ethnic diversity  

摘要： Climate change poses serious challenges for agriculture and adaptation to its impacts is widely understood to be necessary - now and into the future. This paper focuses on Australia's horticulturally productive and culturally diverse Sunraysia region. Due to the high seasonal labour demands of horticulture, this region has a large population of temporary and permanent migrants. Many were farmers in their countries of origin. We bring together literature on climate change adaptation in agriculture, and migration and agriculture, to identify a common theme: experimentation. The former emphasises the need for experimentation in uncertain times, and the latter draws attention to the experimental food growing capacities of migrants. We argue that migrant farmers' desire to grow culturally important crops in their post-migration contexts, alongside their experience with diverse environmental conditions, constitute a poorly recognised adaptive resource. When migrants have access to farmland to demonstrate their agricultural capacities, migration can expand the suite of adaptive options available. This paper draws these experimental threads together, alongside empirical evidence gathered from qualitative research in the Sunraysia region. We conclude by describing an experimental, action-oriented project which seeks to explore what happens when migrant farmers are, quite literally, given the space to show the broader community what they know and what they can do.

关键词： Environmental assessment   Crop yield   Sensitivity analysis   Agriculture   Temperature   Variations   Precipitation   Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change   Drying   Risk assessment   Climate effects   Climate change   Food security   Wheat yield   Adaptations   Yield   Spring   Methodology   Probability theory   Security   Wheat   Agricultural production   Environmental risk   Vulnerability   Risks   Agricultural practices   Feasibility analysis   Rainfall   Climate   Climatic changes   Triticum aestivum  

摘要： Climate change has greatly affected agriculture. Agriculture is facing increasing risks as its sensitivity and vulnerability to climate change. Scientific assessment of climate change-induced agricultural risks could help to actively deal with climate change and ensure food security. However, quantitative assessment of risk is a difficult issue. Here, based on the IPCC assessment reports, a quantitative method for risk assessment of agriculture due to climate change is proposed. Risk is described as the product of the degree of loss and its probability of occurrence. The degree of loss can be expressed by the yield change amplitude. The probability of occurrence can be calculated by the new concept of climate change effect-accumulated frequency (CCEAF). Specific steps of this assessment method are suggested. This method is determined feasible and practical by using the spring wheat in Wuchuan County of Inner Mongolia as a test example. The results show that the fluctuation of spring wheat yield increased with the warming and drying climatic trend in Wuchuan County. The maximum yield decrease and its probability were 3.5 and 64.6%, respectively, for the temperature maximum increase 88.3%, and its risk was 2.2%. The maximum yield decrease and its probability were 14.1 and 56.1%, respectively, for the precipitation maximum decrease 35.2%, and its risk was 7.9%. For the comprehensive impacts of temperature and precipitation, the maximum yield decrease and its probability were 17.6 and 53.4%, respectively, and its risk increased to 9.4%. If we do not adopt appropriate adaptation strategies, the degree of loss from the negative impacts of multiclimatic factors and its probability of occurrence will both increase accordingly, and the risk will also grow obviously.

关键词： agriculture   climate change   plains   Vulnerability  

摘要： Projections of greater interannual and intrannual climate variability, including increasing temperatures, longer and more intense drought periods, and more extreme precipitation events, present growing challenges for agricultural production in the Southern Plains of the USA. We assess agricultural vulnerabilities within this region to support identification and development of adaptation strategies at regional to local scales, where many management decisions are made. Exposure to the synergistic effects of warming, such as fewer and more intense precipitation events and greater overall weather variability, will uniquely affect rain-fed and irrigated cropping, high-value specialty crops, extensive and intensive livestock production, and forestry. Although the sensitivities of various agricultural sectors to climatic stressors can be difficult to identify at regional scales, we summarize that crops irrigated from the Ogallala aquifer possess a high sensitivity;rangeland beef cattle production a low sensitivity;and rain-fed crops, forestry, and specialty crops intermediate sensitivities. Numerous adaptation strategies have been identified, including drought contingency planning, increased soil health, improved forecasts and associated decision support tools, and implementation of policies and financial instruments for risk management. However, the extent to which these strategies are adopted is variable and influenced by both biophysical and socioeconomic considerations. Inadequate local- and regional-scale climate risk and resilience information suggests that climate vulnerability research and climate adaptation approaches need to include bottom-up approaches such as learning networks and peer-to-peer communication.

关键词： Climate change   Agricultural water use   Evapotranspiration   Irrigation water requirement  

摘要： Climate change will affect the future availability of water resources for agriculture. An understanding of the impact of future climate change on regional agricultural water use can provide a basis for regional agricultural production and water management. This paper evaluated the agricultural water demand under three future climate change scenarios in the Loess Plateau of northern Shaanxi (LPNS), China. The results showed that in the scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, the temperature, effective precipitation, and relative humidity were on the rise, the wind speed decreased slightly, and the trend of sunshine duration was unclear. The irrigation water requirements of the main crops exhibited a downward trend under future climate change scenarios. The decreasing trend of the irrigation water requirement was highest in the RCP8.5 (-0.90%) scenario, followed by the RCP4.5 (-0.77%/year) and the RCP2.6 (-0.30%/year) scenarios. Based on the impact of the changes in the evapotranspiration of future crops and the effective precipitation in the RCP2.6 scenario, the irrigation water requirements of the agricultural industry showed a downward trend and decreased from 1.84 x 10(9) m(3)/year (2010-2014 average) to 1.29 x 10(9) m(3)/year (2040-2049 average);the irrigation water requirements of the agricultural industry showed a significant downward trend (P < 0.05) in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, decreasing from 1.84 x 109 m3/year (2010-2014 average) to 1.20 x 10(9) m(3)/year (2040-2049 average) and 1.15 x 10(9) m(3)/year (2040-2049 average), respectively. Future research should be aimed at improving the regional climate downscaling and developing a better understanding of the responses of agriculture to regional climate change.

关键词： Agriculture   agroecology   best management practices   climate change   risk  

摘要： The relationships among farmers' belief in climate change, perceptions of climate-related risk, and use of climate adaptation practices is a growing topic of interest in U.S. scholarship. The northeast region is not well represented in the literature, although it is highly agricultural and will likely face climate-related risks that differ from those faced in other regions. We used a mixed methods approach to examine northeast farmers' perceptions of climate change and climate-related risks over time, and perceived trade-offs associated with on-farm practices. Our investigation shows how northeastern farmers think about climate-risk, and what they are doing to address it.

摘要： 在悠久的历史时期中,黄河中游的天然植被可分为森林、草原、荒漠三个地带.且森林地带兼有若干草原、草原中也有森林茂盛的山地.根据森林变迁的特点,将其分为西周至战国、秦汉至北朝、唐宋、明清以来至新中国成立前夕四个时期.史念海教授认为从封建社会沿袭下来的以木柴作燃料、伐薪烧炭这些旧习气对森林破坏是非常普遍且严重的.更应注意的是,凡是在缺乏薪炭地方推广造林,首先应该解决当地居民日常做饭取暖所需薪炭的供应问题.其次对森林破坏和黄河一些支流清浊的变迁做进一步阐释.一些河流附近近年滋生若干森林,有些上游森林受到破坏,因为是石质山坡,侵蚀不显著,所以河水不至于变浊,地理条件不同,不能一概而论.

关键词： 农业生产率   要素分解   气候变化   窗口DEA　　agricultural productivity   elements decomposition   climate change   window DEA  

摘要： 本文使用新技术窗口DEA中的Window Malmquist指数模型，使用1978-2013年的中国31个省(区)的面板数据，估算了传统农业生产率和气候变化下农业生产率变化情况，并分阶段、分区域比较分析了传统农业生产率和气候变化下农业生产率的差异，以期回答我国农业生产率是否被低估。实证分析后发现：(1)1978-2013年，有60%年份的气候变化下农业生产率小于传统农业生产率，即传统农业生产率在大部分年份是被高估的。气候变化下的农业生产率更为稳定，表明气候因素对稳定农业生产具有一定的作用。(2)日照时数、降水量的增加有利于西部地区农业生产率的提升，西部地区也是受益于气候变化最明显的地区。1978-2013年，气候因素限制了中国中部地区的传统农业大省的农业生产率，尽管该地区的农业生产率有了提升。(3)技术效率的累积变化和技术进步是推动气候变化下的农业生产率提升的主要贡献因素。(4)在不同政策时期内，气候变化对农业生产率的影响差异较大。对此，本文提出相关对策建议。

关键词： 双丰林区   气候变化   农业生产  

摘要： 双丰林区地理位置特殊,受海洋性环境及大陆性季风的共同影响,同时这里海拔高,受山区小气候的影响,在夏季,该地区降雨充沛,冬季降雪早且雪期长,是中国降雪最大的地区之一。近年来,由于森林的过度采伐,林业资源锐减,国家在整个林区实施了天然林保护工程。当地近年来大力发展农业,尤其是种植业。种植业中大豆、水稻等自交作物面积很大,种植范围较广。由于双丰林区土质肥沃,水资源丰富,在农业生产中具有适宜的气候条件和优越的地缘优势。但近年来受到全球气候变化,例如全球温度升高,自然灾害加剧等因素的影响,双丰林区农业生产面临巨大挑战。气候变化对农业安全生产的影响,不仅关系到粮食安全生产、安全供应,安全出口,还可能影响到质量品质和食物安全性监测。各研究表明,农业生产受到气候的不确定性变化的影响越来越大,所以研究气候变化对农业生产的响应势在必行。本试验以双丰林区主要粮食和经济作物(水稻、玉米、大豆、马铃薯、白菜)为研究对象,基于气象数据(气温和降水)和作物资料,系统分析水稻、玉米近30年及,大豆、马铃薯,白菜20年林区气候资源的时空演变格局,得出以下结论:1987～2017年,双丰地区年平均气温为2.75℃。在2000年之前年均温为2.50℃,在2000-2017年间,年均温为2.98℃,17年间上升了0.48℃。1987～2017年,年平均降水量为610.38mm。1987-2000年之间,年平均降水量为638.21mm,在2000-2017年间,年平均降水量为586.03mm,17年间,年降水量减少了50mm左右。由温度相关性分析得知,粮食作物水稻、玉米、大豆及经济作物白菜亩产量与温度呈正相关关系,且在显著性为0.05水平上水稻、大豆、玉米三种粮食作物亩产量达到了显著。降水与双丰地区主要农作物亩产量均为负相关关系,在显著性为0.05水平上,水稻、玉米、大豆三种粮食作物的相关系数分别为-0.290、-0.124、-0.171,且与年降水量均不显著相关。马铃薯和白菜两种经济作物相关系数分别为-0.565、-0.672,且均达到显著水平。短期内按照目前双丰地区的温度和降水变化趋势,对双丰地区农业生产有有利的影响。

关键词： 气温   降水   日照时数   变化趋势   农业影响  

摘要： 分析近些年开封市气温、降水及日照时数变化特征,得出开封市气温上升,降水稳中略上升,日照时数减少等,由此带来的热量增多、旱涝频发等对农业生产利弊兼有,因此农业生产应充分利用有利气候资源优势,趋利避害,合理开发,走现代农业发展道路.

摘要： The impact of climate change on agriculture is evident in changing growing seasons, crop yield, crop quality, and even complete crop losses. Changing climate conditions negatively affect the profitability of agricultural organizations. This study was a single descriptive case of one agricultural corporation in the western United States. The purpose was to identify and explore successful climate change-based sustainability strategies. The conceptual framework for this study was legitimacy theory. The data collection methods consisted of a semistructured interview of a corporate exectutive and obtaining corporate documents, including the annual report from the company’s website. Data were analyzed using content analysis and principal themes were identified by reexamining and resorting the data into various categories. The findings indicated that the farm’s sustainability strategy was based on the the basic qualities of successful sustainability strategies of corporate social responsibility, triple-bottom-line thinking, and systems thinking. Specific themes in terms of climate change-based sustainability strategies were mitigation-oriented strategies, and adaptation-oriented strategies. The distinctive approaches related to climate change mitigation that were identified were reducing carbon emissions, reducing fertilizer/herbicide use, and reducing the use of pesticides. The specific adaptation approaches identified were water conservation, soil enhancements, and diversity in business endeavors. Implications for social change include the advancement of climate change strategies within agricultural organizations to provide for increased food security and decreased danger of starvation and malnutrition of people in underdeveloped areas.