关键词： 气候变化   农业生产   气象灾害   病虫害   影响  

摘要： 在农业生产中,气象灾害与病虫害是两类最主要的问题,会对农业生产活动带来很大的负面影响。但是,在气候变化的大背景下,气象灾害和病虫害问题也受到了一定影响,产生了一些变化,这给农业生产工作造成了一定影响。所以,本文对此展开探索,阐述了气候变化对气象灾害和病虫害产生的影响,希望可以给相关人士一些参考。

关键词： Meteorological data   Soil moisture   Migration   Rivers   Air temperature   Plant growth   Natural resources   Climate change   Temperature (air-sea)   Adaptations   Economic analysis   Soils   Resettlement   Arid environments   Water stress   Migrations   Rainfall   Adaptation   Water temperature   Policies   Economic impact   Agriculture   Data processing   Agricultural economics   Hydrometeorology   Environmental impact   Environmental policy   Fodder   Humidity   Aridity   Climatic changes  

摘要： The people in remote areas of Nepal, like Dhye Village, have adjusted their agriculture-based livelihood to arid environment and have been balancing their needs with what nature provided. However, the livelihood of residence of Dhye was becoming more difficult due to impact of climate change (CC). This research had attempted to evaluate the potential adaptation measures to avoid CC-induced migration based on analysis of hydro-meteorological data, documented bio-physical and socio-economic effects of CC, locally available natural resources, and recommended best adaptation measures. The study assessed that low rainfall and erratic pattern, shifting snowfall pattern, decreasing humidity, and increased air temperature created the water stress as the result dried up the spring and dropping of soil moisture which had direct negative impact on supporting healthy plant growth and animals had to travel further for fodder and water. In realized that fact residents in village have adopted different adaptation strategy mainly seasonal migration, started selling their properties and leaving the village for the collective-survival of the community, the Dhye farmers unanimously decided to leave their habitats enmasse and resettle at Thangchung (near the bank of Dhye River), thus become climate refugee. The findings revealed that there was a direct link between the changes in climate parameters in Dhye Village and its consequences, and suggesting the resettlement of them to Thangchung as the best adaption option with need to make proper policy on climate change adaptation, and its timely implementation that could have averted this unfortunate situation.

关键词： 农业干旱   作物水分亏缺指数   干旱站次比  

摘要： 基于1961-2010年华北地区36个气象站点气象观测资料和1981-2010年23个农业气象观测站夏玉米生育期资料,以作物水分亏缺指数(CWDI)为农业干旱指标,分析华北地区夏玉米各生育阶段干旱的空间分布特征及其年代际演变趋势。结果表明:华北地区夏玉米不同生育阶段以轻旱最明显,播种-拔节阶段,大部分地区轻旱发生频率为5a一遇(20%)至3a一遇(33%);拔节-抽雄阶段,干旱空间分布特征表现为:轻旱主要集中在河北、河南、山东三省交界区域,发生频率在5a一遇至3a一遇;抽雄-成熟阶段,轻旱集中在河北中部,发生频率在3a一遇以上。全生育期轻旱主要集中在河北大部、北京和天津、河南北部和山东西部,干旱频率在3a一遇以上。1961-2010年,华北夏玉米生长季以播种-拔节阶段和抽雄-成熟阶段发生干旱的年份最多,以20世纪90年代干旱站次比最高;比较过去50a干旱演变趋势,以抽雄-成熟阶段山东东南部和河北东部区域干旱强度增加明显。研究结果说明夏玉米各等级干旱频率以轻旱最为明显,各生育阶段以播种-拔节、抽雄-成熟阶段发生干旱的频率较高;全生育期以轻旱的发生频率较高,干旱中心为河北大部、北京和天津、河南北部和山东西部,发生频率为3a一遇(33.3%)以上。夏玉米生长季全区域干旱主要发生在播种-拔节和抽雄-成熟阶段,该阶段发生干旱的范围最广。此外,不同生育阶段的干旱强度变化表现为河北北部干旱强度增加,河南南部干旱强度减小。

关键词： 隆化   气候   农业  

摘要： 对隆化县近50年气温、降水、日照、无霜期的气象资料,运用线性拟合法和偏值法进行气候变化分析。结果表明,在过去的50年间,隆化县气温呈上升趋势,变化率为0.24℃/10年;降水量波动起伏,总体趋势平稳;日照呈下降趋势,变化率为87h/10年;无霜期波动起伏,但呈逐步增长趋势。通过气候变化特征分析,趋利避害,对当地农业生产提出一些建议。

关键词： 气候变化   中国农业   影响   对策  

摘要： 全球气候变暖,使中国农业在一定程度上也受到影响,而这些影响存在利弊两方面。本文主要讨论了在温度及降水两个主导因素的作用下,研究探讨CO2作为变量对中国农业造成的影响。主要研究对植物的各方面影响,其中着重阐述了对作物产量的影响,例如粮食作物、经济作物、牧业和渔业的产量的影响,简要讨论了对农业气象灾害、病虫害、土壤等辅助因素的影响。最后针对适应气候变化提出了相关对策,及未来研究气候变化对中国农业影响的的展望。

关键词： 气候变化   农业生产   西藏自治区  

摘要： 近几年来,全球气候变化已成为人们关注的一个热点。目前,气候变化已经带来了很大的影响,如冰川退缩、草场退化、积雪消融加快及荒漠化扩张等。西藏自治区气候变化也较为明显,气温明显升高,尤其是在旱季。另外,很多地区的降水量在不断增加,但是蒸发量却在减少。这些气候条件的变化,在很大程度上影响了西藏自治区的农业生产。基于此,本文针对西藏自治区的气候变化对当地农业生产的影响进行分析。

关键词： 气候   变化特征   农业生产   叶尔羌河平原绿洲  

摘要： 为分析叶尔羌河平原绿洲气候变化及其对农业生产的影响,利用多年实测气象数据和农业数据,结合累积距平、突变分析和线性趋势等方法分析近60多年来研究区的气候变化特征以及其对农业气候资源、化肥施用量、粮食单产以及作物生育期的影响,以期为农业种植及农业生态系统的安全提供科学指导。结果表明:(1)近60多年来研究区气温增温倾向率为0.24℃/10a,冬季增温幅度最大为0.31℃/10a;日照时数呈减小趋势,减少倾向率为33.84 h/10a。气温于1996年发生突变,日照时数未出现明显突变点。(2)近60多年来≥10℃积温由4 056℃·d增大到4 836℃·d,其持续时间亦由196 d增大到232d;负积温的绝对值不断减少,由-703℃·d减至-218℃·d。(3)近30年化肥施用量从111.37 kg/hm^2增至244.31 kg/hm^2,粮食单产由38.61×10~2kg/hm^2提高到64.38×10~2kg/hm^2,棉花生育期从185 d延长至198 d,单产从309.26 kg/hm^2提高到1 705.64kg/hm^2。(4)气候变暖提高了研究区的农业气候资源优势,使棉花播种期提前、秋霜期推迟、总生育期延长,单位面积产量提高,一定程度上有利于农业生产。

关键词： Mexico   agricultural sector   Vulnerability   municipality   adaptive capacity   climate change   inhabitant   Variable  

摘要： Vulnerability to climate change was evaluated for three different time periods: 1990, 2000, and 2010. Our objective was to discuss the scope of a multi-temporal assessment of vulnerability. The method used 55 indicators-with emphasis on the agricultural sector in Mexico-of which 27 were updated for the year 2010 and 33 were retrospectively estimated for the year 1990. The results show that in the 20-year study period, the exposure of the municipalities (and inhabitants) has increased, and sensitivity and adaptive capacity have decreased. The number of municipalities vulnerable to climate change declined over the 20-year period. We found that calculating vulnerability by adding exposure and sensitivity and subtracting adaptive capacity (E + S - AC) can lead to unintentional underestimation of total vulnerability. When rating vulnerability, care must be taken in what is reported: the results differ for the number of inhabitants versus the number of municipalities. Our previous published vulnerability evaluation was for the year 2000, so we wanted to evaluate the sensitivity of some variables and the vulnerability formula itself we used in that moment. It is possible to evaluate the vulnerability multi-temporally, which allows to evaluate the sensibility and calibration of the variables and indicators used and the reconsideration of their application.

关键词： Adaptation   Agriculture   CGE modelling   Climate change   Impact assessment  

摘要： The present research offers an economic assessment of climate change impacts on the four major crop families characterizing Nigerian agriculture. The evaluation is performed by shocking land productivity in a computable general equilibrium model tailored to replicate Nigerian economic development up to 2050. The detail of land uses in the model has been increased by differentiating land types per agro-ecological zones. Uncertainty about future climate is captured, using, as inputs, yield changes computed by a crop model under ten general circulation models runs. Climate change turns out to be negative for Nigeria in the medium term, with production losses and increase in crop prices, higher food dependency on foreign imports, and GDP losses in all the simulations after 2025. In a second part of the paper, a cost effectiveness analysis of adaptation in Nigerian agriculture is conducted. The adaptation practices considered are a mix of cheaper "soft measures" and more costly "hard" irrigation expansion. The main result is that the cost effectiveness of the whole package depends crucially on the possibility of implementing adaptation by exploiting low-cost opportunities which show a benefit-cost ratio larger than one in all the climate regimes.