关键词： Water shortages   agriculture   Political Factors   Risk estimation   lack of water   Farmland   climate change   Water Resources   Southwestern U.S.   Ecological Impacts of Climate Change   water availability   Farmers (2004)  

摘要： The interior southwest United States is one of the hottest, driest regions on the planet, yet irrigated cropland agriculture is successfully practiced where there is access to surface water and/or groundwater. Through climate change, the southwest is projected to become even hotter and drier, increasing the challenges faced by farmers across the region. We can assess the vulnerability of cropland agriculture, to assist in developing potential solutions to these challenges of warming temperatures and water scarcity. However, these types of biophysical vulnerability assessment usually generate technological or policy-level solutions that do not necessarily account for farmers' ability to respond to climate change impacts. Further, there are non-climatic factors that also threaten the future of agriculture in the region, such as population increase, loss of agricultural land, and increasing competition for depleting water resources. In this paper, we assert that to fully address how southwestern farmers may respond to climate change impacts, we must consider both biophysical outcome and contextual vulnerabilities. Future research on individual localities and/or specific commodities and including cross-disciplinary analysis of socio-economic, institutional, cultural, and political factors alongside biophysical factors will help to develop more substantive understanding of system vulnerabilities and feasible adaptive solutions.

关键词： Adaptation   climate change   farmers   perceptions   resiliency  

摘要： Climate change impacts on agriculture have been intensifying in the Northeastern United States. In order to encourage the adoption of climate change adaptation and mitigation practices by farmers, it is critical to understand their perspectives on the risks they face and actions they are taking. However, very few empirical studies have considered how farmers are interpreting and responding to climate impacts, risks and opportunities in the Northeast. This study investigates farmer views and decisions related to climate change using data from six farmer focus groups conducted across New York and Pennsylvania. The study examined how farmers perceived climate impacts on their farms, the practices they are willing to adopt, and how perceived risks and vulnerability affect farmers' decision-making related to adaptation and mitigation strategies. Although farmers articulated concern regarding climate impacts, they also made clear that other business pressures, such as profitability, market conditions, labor availability or government regulations were often more critical issues that affected their decision-making. Decisions about adopting climate change adaptation and mitigation practices vary widely, and personal experience with extreme weather and changing seasons affected decision-making. The findings from this study provide improved understanding of farmers' needs and priorities, which can help guide land-grant researchers, extension and policymakers in their efforts to develop and coordinate a comprehensive strategy to address climate change impacts on agriculture in the Northeast.

关键词： Irrigation   Model   Agriculture   Hydrology   Climate change  

摘要： Irrigation efficiency plays an important role in agricultural productivity;it affects farm-scale water demand, and the partitioning of irrigation losses into evaporative and non-evaporative components. This partitioning determines return flow generation and thus affects water availability. Over the last two decades, hydrologic and agricultural research communities have significantly improved our understanding of the impacts of climate change on water availability and food productivity. However, the impacts of climate change on the efficiency of irrigation systems, particularly on the partitioning between evaporative and non-evaporative losses, have received little attention. In this study, we incorporated a process-based irrigation module into a coupled hydrologic/agricultural modeling framework (VIC-CropSyst). To understand how climate change may impact irrigation losses, we applied VIC-CropSyst over the Yakima River basin, an important agricultural region in Washington State, U.S. We compared the historical period of 1980-2010 to an ensemble of ten projections of climate for two future periods: 2030-2060 and 2060-2090. Results averaged over the watershed showed that a 9% increase in evaporative losses will be compensated by a reduction of non-evaporative losses. Therefore, overall changes in future efficiency are negligible (-0.4%) while the Evaporative Loss Ratio (ELR) (defined as the ratio of evaporative to non-evaporative irrigation losses) is enhanced by 10%. This higher ELR is associated with a reduction in return flows, thus negatively impacting downstream water availability. Results also indicate that the impact of climate change on irrigation losses depend on irrigation type and climate scenarios. (C) 2017 Published by Elsevier B.V.

关键词： Rainfed agriculture   Transdisciplinary approach   Conservation agriculture (CA)   Indian tribal farmers   Maize based cropping system   Analytic hierarchy process (AHP)   Soil quality  

摘要： Rainfed agro-ecosystems, the purported grey patches untouched by the Green Revolution or most technological advances, occupy a prominent position in Indian agriculture. Cropping intensities and crop yields are low and unstable in these areas due to unpredictable patterns of rainfall, a host of biotic and abiotic stresses and adherence to traditional farm practices. This precarious food security situation is especially dangerous in the central Indian tribal belt (also known as the poverty belt) which is a typical rainfed area dominated by tribal communities. More than 90% of the tribal people are totally dependent on agriculture and produce much of what they eat. Small land holdings and their low productivity, along with uncertainties in rainfall patterns, increases economic and social risks for these farmers. With degraded soils and unreliable weather patterns, return on investment is uncertain and likely to be much lower overall than under irrigated conditions with better soils. Under such conditions, one approach to achieve improved crop production is to minimize soil and other natural resource degradation by adopting a set of crop-nutrient-water-land system management practices, such as conservation agriculture (CA). To assess the effect of introduced technology under local ecological and socio-economic conditions, the study focused on two ecosystem services: a) provisional, and b) regulatory through five treatments consisting of farmers' traditional practice (FP) which was conventional tillage with broadcast of local variety maize (Zea mays L);and four CA treatments viz., conventional tillage with sole cropped maize using line sowing of the improved maize cultivar 'Nilesh' (CT-M);conventional tillage with maize intercropped with the improved cowpea (Vig na unguiculata L cultivar 'Hariyalli Bush') (CT-M + C);reduced tillage with sole cropped maize (MT-M);and reduced tillage with maize + cowpea (MT-M + C). After harvest of maize and cowpea, mustard was planted as

关键词： agriculture   climate change   mitigation   adaptation   economic models   shared socioeconomic pathways  

摘要： Systematic model inter-comparison helps to narrow discrepancies in the analysis of the future impact of climate change on agricultural production. This paper presents a set of alternative scenarios by five global climate and agro-economic models. Covering integrated assessment (IMAGE), partial equilibrium (CAPRI, GLOBIOM, MAgPIE) and computable general equilibrium (MAGNET) models ensures a good coverage of biophysical and economic agricultural features. These models are harmonized with respect to basic model drivers, to assess the range of potential impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector by 2050. Moreover, they quantify the economic consequences of stringent global emission mitigation efforts, such as non-CO2 emission taxes and land-based mitigation options, to stabilize global warming at 2 degrees C by the end of the century under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. A key contribution of the paper is a vis-a-vis comparison of climate change impacts relative to the impact of mitigation measures. In addition, our scenario design allows assessing the impact of the residual climate change on the mitigation challenge. From a global perspective, the impact of climate change on agricultural production by mid-century is negative but small. A larger negative effect on agricultural production, most pronounced for ruminant meat production, is observed when emission mitigation measures compliant with a 2 degrees C target are put in place. Our results indicate that a mitigation strategy that embeds residual climate change effects (RCP2.6) has a negative impact on global agricultural production relative to a no-mitigation strategy with stronger climate impacts (RCP6.0). However, this is partially due to the limited impact of the climate change scenarios by 2050. The magnitude of price changes is different amongst models due to methodological differences. Further research to achieve a better harmonization is needed, especially regarding endogenous food and feed

关键词： Adaptation   Health belief model   Protection motivation theory   Drought   Qualitative  

摘要： Through the lens of the Health Belief Model and Protection Motivation Theory, we analyzed interviews of 36 agricultural advisors in Indiana and Nebraska to understand their appraisals of climate change risk, related decision making processes and subsequent risk management advice to producers. Most advisors interviewed accept that weather events are a risk for US Midwestern agriculture;however, they are more concerned about tangible threats such as crop prices. There is not much concern about climate change among agricultural advisors. Management practices that could help producers adapt to climate change were more likely to be recommended by conservation and Extension advisors, while financial and crop advisors focused more upon season-to-season decision making (e.g., hybrid seeds and crop insurance). We contend that the agricultural community should integrate long-term thinking as part of farm decision making processes and that agricultural advisors are in a prime position to influence producers. In the face of increasing extreme weather events, climatologists and advisors should work more closely to reach a shared understanding of the risks posed to agriculture by climate change.

关键词： climate change   impacts   agriculture  

摘要： Agriculture is one of the sectors that is expected to be most significantly impacted by climate change. There has been considerable interest in assessing these impacts and many recent studies investigating agricultural impacts for individual countries and regions using an array of models. However, the great majority of existing studies explore impacts on a country or region of interest without explicitly accounting for impacts on the rest of the world. This approach can bias the results of impact assessments for agriculture given the importance of global trade in this sector. Due to potential impacts on relative competitiveness, international trade, global supply, and prices, the net impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector in each region depend not only on productivity impacts within that region, but on how climate change impacts agricultural productivity throughout the world. In this study, we apply a global model of agriculture and forestry to evaluate climate change impacts on US agriculture with and without accounting for climate change impacts in the rest of the world. In addition, we examine scenarios where trade is expanded to explore the implications for regional allocation of production, trade volumes, and prices. To our knowledge, this is one of the only attempts to explicitly quantify the relative importance of accounting for global climate change when conducting regional assessments of climate change impacts. The results of our analyses reveal substantial differences in estimated impacts on the US agricultural sector when accounting for global impacts vs. US-only impacts, particularly for commodities where the United States has a smaller share of global production. In addition, we find that freer trade can play an important role in helping to buffer regional productivity shocks.

关键词： Groundwater recharge   Climate change   Irrigated agriculture   High plains aquifer   Diffuse recharge   Irrigation recharge  

摘要： Understanding the controls of agriculture and climate change on recharge rates is critically important to develop appropriate sustainable management plans for groundwater resources and coupled irrigated agricultural systems. In this study, several physical (total potential (psi(T)) time series) and chemical tracer and dating (H-3, Cl-, Br-, CFCs, SF6, and H-3/He-3) methods were used to quantify diffuse recharge rates beneath two rangeland sites and irrigation recharge rates beneath two irrigated corn sites along an east-west (wet-dry) transect of the northern High Plains aquifer, Platte River Basin, central Nebraska. The field-based recharge estimates and historical climate were used to calibrate site-specific Hydrus-1D models, and irrigation requirements were estimated using the Crops Simulation Model (CROPSIM). Future model simulations were driven by an ensemble of 16 global climate models and two global warming scenarios to project a 2050 climate relative to the historical baseline 1990 climate, and simulate changes in precipitation, irrigation, evapotranspiration, and diffuse and irrigation recharge rates. Although results indicate statistical differences between the historical variables at the eastern and western sites and rangeland and irrigated sites, the low warming scenario (+ 1.0 degrees C) simulations indicate no statistical differences between 2050 and 1990. However, the high warming scenarios (+ 2.4 degrees C) indicate a 25% and 15% increase in median annual evapotranspiration and irrigation demand, and decreases in future diffuse recharge by 53% and 98% and irrigation recharge by 47% and 29% at the eastern and western sites, respectively. These results indicate an important threshold between the low and high warming scenarios that if exceeded could trigger a significant bidirectional shift in 2050 hydroclimatology and recharge gradients. The bidirectional shift is that future northern High Plains temperatures will resemble present central High Plains t

关键词： 气温   降水量   农业生产   影响   内蒙古凉城   1981—2016年  

摘要： 本文利用1981—2016年凉城县逐月平均气温和降水量资料,对凉城县气候特征及其对农业生产的影响进行分析。结果表明,1981—2016年凉城县年平均气温为5.9℃,气候倾向率为0.36℃/10年,气温升高趋势显著,四季平均气温均呈逐年增加的趋势;1981—2016年凉城县年降水量为406.5 mm,气候倾向率为-0.976 mm/10年,除夏季和冬季外,其余2季降水量均呈逐年增加的趋势;凉城县气候变化趋势较显著,对农业气候资源、农业气象灾害和病虫害均会产生不利影响。