关键词： 赤峰地区   气候变化   农业生产   旱作农业  

摘要： 利用赤峰地区14个气象站1961年~2017年逐日气温、降水量资料,分析了气候因子时空变化特征及对农牧业生产的影响,结果表明:近57年来赤峰地区平均气温呈显著升高趋势(P<0.05),升温速度0.23℃/10a;≥10℃活动积温呈显著升高趋势,57年升高了218.31℃;降水量呈微弱减少趋势,减少速率为0.16mm/a;热量资源显著增加,利于种植长生育期品种和二茬作物正常成熟,但降水量减少导致干旱发生概率变大,旱作农业遭受旱灾风险加大。

关键词： 气候变化   农业气象灾害   病虫害  

摘要： 气候变化对农作物生长与农业发展的作用具有两面性,极端气候易造成农作物产量的减少,造成农作物严重的病虫害问题;适宜的气候能够为农作物的健康生长创造条件,推动农业持续发展。基于此,以气候变化与农业发展的关系为依据,探讨气候变化对农业气象灾害与病虫害的影响,旨在为气候变化带来的农业发展与农作物管理问题的研究提供参考。

关键词： 气候变化   气温   降水   日照   农业生产   甘肃酒泉  

摘要： 利用酒泉市2004—2017年气候观测资料,分析该地区近14年的气候变化特征,并阐述其对农业生产的影响。结果表明,酒泉市年平均温度大体呈上升趋势,气候倾向率为0.396℃/10年;降水量总体呈波动增加趋势,气候倾向率为16.029 mm/10年;日照时数逐年增加,气候倾向率为99.508 h/10年。气候趋于变暖对作物品种结构及农业病虫害均带来影响。

关键词： agriculture climate impacts   process models   statistical models   integrated assessment models   carbon fertilization   climate adaptation   inter-method comparison  

摘要： The agricultural sector is one of the most sensitive to climate change, with potentially significant implications for food security and welfare. Alternative methodological approaches-such as process models, statistical models and integrated assessment models-have been used to estimate climate impacts on agriculture, not always with consistent results. This focus issue intends to shed light on the sign and order of magnitude of agricultural impacts under 2 degrees C and higher warming levels. This letter synthesizes the set of articles in the focus issue that have been tasked with providing a systematic assessment of how results from these different methodological approaches compare and why they are different. From this synthesis, we offer thoughts on research priorities going forward to fill key voids in the literature on this important topic.

关键词： overland runoff   space and time variations   the effect of climate and agricultural activity  

摘要： Space and time analysis of the formation of spring overland runoff in forest-steppe and steppe regions of the Russian Plain has been carried out. It has been shown that, in addition to zonal climate conditions, its distribution over the area is largely determined by the agricultural load on river catchment areas, primarily, the structure of agricultural lands-the proportions of areas under winter tillage and consolidated tillage. The character of overland runoff response to present-day climate changes and agricultural activity has been identified, and quantitative estimates have been given to the manifold hydrological role of these factors.

关键词： Soils  

摘要： Dryland agroecosystems could be a sizable sink for atmospheric carbon (C) due to their spatial extent and level of degradation, providing climate change mitigation. We examined productivity and soil C dynamics under two climate change scenarios (moderate warming, representative concentration pathway [RCP] 4.5;and high warming, RCP 8.5), using long-term experimental data and the DayCent process-based model for three sites with varying climates and soil conditions in the US High Plains. Each site included a no-till cropping intensity gradient introduced in 1985, with treatments ranging from wheat-fallow (Triticum aestivum L.) to continuous annual cropping and perennial grass. Simulations were extended to 2100 using data from 16 global circulation models to estimate uncertainty. Simulated yields declined for all crops (up to 50% for wheat), with small changes after 2050 under RCP 4.5 and continued losses to 2100 under RCP 8.5. Of the cropped systems, continuous cropping had the highest average productivity and soil C sequestration rates (78.1 kg C ha(-1) yr(-1) from 2015 to 2045 under RCP 4.5). Any increase in soil C for cropped rotations was realized by 2050, but grassland treatments increased soil C (up to 69%) through 2100, even under RCP 8.5. Our simulations indicate that reduced frequency of summer fallow can both increase annualized yields and store more soil C. As evapotranspiration is likely to increase, reducing fallow periods without live vegetation from dryland agricultural rotations may enhance the resilience of these systems to climate change while also increasing soil C storage and mitigating carbon dioxide emissions.

关键词： agriculture   climate change   transformation   transformational adaptation  

摘要： This study explores the increasing use of the concept of transformational adaptation (TA) in the context of agriculture, analyzing its conceptualization and applications. While TA is appealing as a concept that involves the implementation of adaptation actions in different ways through small adjustments from current technological and economic approaches, it also raises questions about the complexity of transforming agricultural systems. Although current scientific evidence finds some patterns of climate change impacts on agriculture in the future that can inform the analysis of where and when transformation is required, this evidence is not enough to fully inform practical decision-making at different scales. Part of the problem may be that there has been not enough empirical research focusing on transformational agriculture. For example, from 93 articles in the literature, 39% focus on understanding the concept of TA, 32% focus on analytical and applied aspects of TA, including studies applying global climate models to analyze TA at regional and global scales and to identify broad patterns of TA in agriculture, and only 16% have tried to understand TA from an empirical perspective. While the number of empirical studies of TA is still increasing, there are other issues of TA that have received limited attention, including uncertainty of climate change impacts, policy implications, the transition process, the role of technological innovations, and barriers to TA. This article is categorized under: Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change > Values-Based Approach to Vulnerability and Adaptation

关键词： GREENHOUSE gases prevention   GLOBAL warming   AIR pollution control   BIODIVERSITY   PARIS Agreement (2016)  

摘要： The article discusses the Paris Climate Agreement which represents an ambitious goal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to limit global climate warming. It states that its focus is on the reduction of fossil-fuel emissions, improved land-management practices and to provide other important cobenefits such as provision of clean water, reduction in air pollution and maintenance of biodiversity.

关键词： Deforestation   Agricultural intensification   Climate change   Cattle   Pasture   Brazilian Amazon  

摘要： Tropical deforestation in Brazil is a major source of greenhouse gas emissions that contribute to climate change. Brazil has taken several steps to reduce emissions associated with deforestation including the development of policies to promote and reward cattle ranching intensification. Intensification practices are hypothesized to reduce the conversion of tropical forests while simultaneously increasing the productivity of ranching on current pasture lands. This paper assesses the impact of intensification on the demand for productive land. A theoretical model of land use, which considers the degree of intensification in the estimation of the derived demand for pasture, is tested with data from small-scale landowners who operate dairy farms and calving operations in the greater Ouro Preto do Oeste region of Rondonia. Results suggest different trajectories for beef and dairy production. The intensification of cattle production exhibits a nonlinear relationship with the demand for productive land: first as farms become more intensive the demand for newly cleared land increases, but then decreases with further intensification. The results are different for dairy intensification, which is found to be correlated with reduced deforestation. Findings suggest that the reliance on policies that promote intensification can be a risky way of achieving climate change objectives. (C) 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

关键词： 气候变化   气象灾害   病虫害  

摘要： 我国的农业自然灾害发生频率较高,为了有效解决农业气象灾害造成的不利影响,减轻病虫害发生的频率及程度,通过对导致气候变化的因素进行探讨,了解气候变化对我国农业事业发展现状的影响,从中寻求因为气候变化导致的农业问题的解决方案。