关键词： 气候   变化趋势   农业   影响  

摘要： 依据赤水市1968~2017年50年降水、温度数据资料,采用趋势分析法、距平分析法进行分析,分析了赤水50年气候变化特征及发展趋势对结合赤水农业生产的影响:赤水1968~2017年降水总体趋势总体减少,1983年之后开始持续下降。赤水近1968~2017年年平均气温趋势总体上升,特别是2012年以后加速上升。针对赤水气温升高降雨减少的气候变化特征,在农业生产中可以应用调整种植结构、充分利用冬季热量资源、加强人工影响天气能力改善小气候平衡、加强病虫害防治、做好环境保护、种植抗旱作物等方式应对气候变化。

关键词： Climate change   Best management practices   SWAT   Diffuse pollution   Multi-objective optimization  

摘要： Climate change is a primary driver that alters water pollution hotspots in watersheds, which complicates the use of Best management practices (BMPs) for diffuse pollution mitigation strategies. The objective of this study is to evaluate future changes in BMPs on total phosphorus (TP) loads to the river system, depending on climate change. Current weather data were collected from 2000 to 2010 and future weather data from 2040 to 2050 were obtained from regional climate model simulations based on Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 scenarios. This study describes various BMP implementation plans at affordable cost that are adapted to different weather conditions, current (for 2000-2010) and future climate scenarios (for 2040-2050). The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), i.e., one of the deterministic models for watershed management, was used to estimate total phosphorus (TP) removal efficiency of various types of BMP at two crop fields (rice paddy and soybean fields) in the Yeongsan River (YR) watershed of Korea. The Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA-II), i.e., one of the artificial intelligence (AI) models for decision support framework, was applied to obtain allow for trade-off analysis between two conflict objectives, the maximum TP load reduction against implementation costs. The SWAT simulation results showed that the model performance based on the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and percent bias was acceptable for simulating three parameters;daily flow discharge, monthly sediment loads, and TP loads in the river. As a result, monthly sediment loads and TP loads increase remarkably under all future climate change scenarios except for July, when a comparable amount of precipitation is recorded during the present and future conditions. New implementation of BMPs, therefore, will be required for future climate change scenarios to achieve 50% TP load reduction in the given watershed condition. Interestingly, parallel terraces wh

关键词： 通辽市   气候变化   特征   农业生产  

摘要： 本文利用通辽市1988~2017年的气温、降水量与日照资料,着重针对近30年通辽市的气候变化特征进行分析,并论述了气候变化对农业生产的影响.结果表明：近30年来通辽市年平均气温表现出一定的上升趋势,气候倾向率为0.257℃/10a;春季气温上升最为明显,冬季气温则呈现出缓慢的下降趋势.年平均降水量呈现出-定的减少趋势,气候倾向率为-18.119mm/10a.降水量主要集中在每年的4~9月份,12月份至次年2月份的降水量相对较少.年日照时数呈现出较为明显的下降趋势,其气候倾向率为-179.1h/10a.日照时数在5~10月份较多,各个月份之间日照时数的差异不是太大.通辽市气候变化对当地农业生产产生严重影响,主要表现在必须调整种植业结构,作物养分无法正常吸收,病虫害加剧,自然灾害频发等.因此,应当加强建设农业基础设施,切实增强自然灾害防御能力,以尽可能使灾害对农业生产造成的损失得到最大程度的减少.

关键词： 适应气候变化   技术体系框架   东北地区   农业  

摘要： 随着气候变化及其所带来的影响日益显著,目前适应气候变化越来越成为全球关注的热点问题。东北地区是中国重要的粮食生产基地,气候变化影响下东北农业生产变化将直接引起中国粮食安全问题。从气候变化角度着手,梳理了气候变化对东北农业影响的关键问题,分析指出近年来气候变化对东北地区农业4个最突出的影响：热量资源呈现增加趋势,旱涝灾害频次与强度增大,极端低温冷害事件下降,农业病虫害损失显著加重。针对这4个关键问题,从作物抗逆品种选育、作物应变耕作栽培、农田基本建设、种植结构调整、病虫害防治、农业保险等不同方面形成东北农业适应技术体系框架。

关键词： 气候变化   农业   湘西  

摘要： 为掌握全球气候变暖背景下的湘西州气候变化特征,减缓和适应气候变化对农业生产带来的不利影响。本研究以湘西州8个县(市)气象台站1960—2017年逐日气象观测数据及古丈国家农业气象一级观测站的观测数据为基础,利用滑动平均、线性拟合、M-K检验、小波分析等,研究1960—2017年湘西州气温、降水、相对湿度、日照时数的变化特征及对农业的影响。结果表明:年平均气温升温趋势明显,1960—2017年升温0.81℃;气温的年代际变化明显,21世纪后气温明显上升;冬季、春季升温突出,夏季升温不明显;年降水量无显著趋势变化,年际波动较大;相对湿度、日照时数呈减少趋势。水稻、油菜生育期明显缩短,产量下降。气候变化对农业生产布局、作物生长、产量品质等均有一定影响。

关键词： Agricultural ecosystem services   Choice experiments   Climate change adaptation   Gender   Mali   Sorghum  

摘要： Changing climatic conditions present new challenges for agricultural development in sub-Saharan Africa. Sorghum has proven to be an adaptable and resilient crop despite limited funding for crop development. Recent breeding efforts target hybrid and perennial technologies that may facilitate adaptation to climate change. Advantages of perennial crops over their annual counterparts include improved soil quality and water conservation and reduced inputs and labor requirements. In contrast, hybrid crops are often bred for improved grain yield and earlier maturation to avoid variable conditions. We use discrete choice experiments to model adoption of sorghum as a function of attributes that differ between these technologies and traditional varieties in Mali. Overall, the main perceived advantage of perennial crops is agricultural ecosystem services such as soil improvement, while adoption of hybrid crops is hampered by the inability to reuse seed. Women farmers are less concerned about higher labor requirements associated with perennial crops and the ability to reuse hybrids seeds than male farmers. Farmers prefer traditional sorghum to perennial sorghum and are indifferent between traditional and hybrid sorghum. These findings have important policy implications for understanding tradeoffs that are central to farmer decision making when it comes to breeding technologies for climate adaptation.