关键词： 气候变化   农业生产   产生影响   解决措施  

摘要： 我国幅员辽阔,地大物博,资源丰富,人口众多,农业是我国经济发展的基础产业。农业、农民和农生的"三农"问题,成为我国关注的主要问题。随着经济全球化的发展,我国同世界的联系也在不断加强,气候的变化不但影响着全球的生态平衡和经济稳定,也逐渐影响着我国的经济发展,特别是农业生产的发展。应对全球气候变化,解决气候变化带来的各种问题,成为目前世界关注的焦点。我国也进一步加强了对气候变化的分析,研究气候变化对中国农业生产的影响,本文就从气候变化的角度,分析了气候变化对我国农业生产的影响,并提出了相关的解决措施。

关键词： agriculture   machine learning   climate change impacts  

摘要： Crop yields are critically dependent on weather. A growing empirical literature models this relationship in order to project climate change impacts on the sector. We describe an approach to yield modeling that uses a semiparametric variant of a deep neural network, which can simultaneously account for complex nonlinear relationships in high-dimensional datasets, as well as known parametric structure and unobserved cross-sectional heterogeneity. Using data on corn yield from the US Midwest, we show that this approach outperforms both classical statistical methods and fully-nonparametric neural networks in predicting yields of years withheld during model training. Using scenarios from a suite of climate models, we show large negative impacts of climate change on corn yield, but less severe than impacts projected using classical statistical methods. In particular, our approach is less pessimistic in the warmest regions and the warmest scenarios.

关键词： Rainfall variability   Food poverty   Geographical information systems   Adaptation policy  

摘要： The agricultural sector in Nigeria provides a socio-economic resource base for exiting pervasive poverty, and transforming the economy. However, with the challenges posed by climate change through variability in rainfall, the agricultural livelihoods and poverty status of the population could be threatened due to the vulnerability context of the country. This paper explores the relationship between rainfall and food poverty through the assessment of vulnerability to climate change in an agricultural economy by geo-referencing and mapping of rainfall variability and food poverty. It provides a quantification of the scale and location of the area under food poverty and rainfall variability with scenarios that provide alternative sustainable development pathways of desirable outcomes. The coefficients of variation of rainfall or precipitation seasonality were computed from geo-referenced data and topologically overlaid on the most recent food poverty profile for Nigeria. The findings reveal intriguing phenomena bordering on agro-climatic and socio-economic factors of climate change vulnerability. The findings provide a basis for policy formulation and implementation on inequity of food poverty and environmental sustainability. It offers empirical insights on how to rethink concepts of socio-economic and environmental sustain ability through landscapes and livelihoods as outcomes of vulnerability contexts. The paper concludes that, there is need for agricultural transformation along vulnerability dimensions. The evidence of the nexus between rainfall and food poverty could be a new model for promoting sustainability of the agrarian economy in Nigeria. (C) 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词： 多伦县   气候变化   农业生产   影响  

摘要： 文章以内蒙古自治区多伦县作为研究对象,利用多伦县1961-2015年的温度、降水量等气象观测资料,利用统计分析、滑动平均等方法分析了了该地区气候变化特征。结果表明:1961-2015年多伦县年平均温度呈现出一定的上升趋势,气候倾向率为0.42℃/10a。各个季节平均温度也有所上升,近60年多伦县年平均降水量呈现出一定的下降趋势。夏季降水量最多,其次为秋季,冬季降水量最少。气候变化将会导致极端天气事件多发,对农业生产产生严重影响;还会导致农作物生长发育期明显加快,导致农作物的病虫害蔓延等。

关键词： 气候变化   农业气象灾害   病虫害   影响   预防措施  

摘要： 随着我国经济不断发展,环境污染问题越来越严重,气候变化成为人们关注的焦点,气候变化会带来农业气象灾害,对病虫害的发展规律产生影响,而农业气象灾害对农业生产具有十分严重的危害,因此必须要从改变环境着手,改变气候条件,加强农业气象灾害的控制。本文对气候变化与农业气象灾害和病虫害发生之间的规律进行分析,旨在提高农业气象灾害预防水平。

关键词： 江汉平原   农业生态   气候变化   调整产业结构   湖泊演化   洪涝灾害   长江中游   年平均气温  

摘要： 近55年来江汉平原年平均气温呈显著上升趋势,降水量呈现微上升趋势,降水年际间变化明显。气候变暖使江汉平原径流量增加,干旱和洪涝等灾害出现的频率进一步增加。基于对生态文明的认识,提出了污染治理、调整产业结构、推广生态农业、打造休闲农业、发挥气象作用等农业生态适应气候变化的策略。江汉平原位于长江中游,地处湖北省中南部,是湖北省及全国的重要商品粮、棉、油生产基地和畜牧业、水产基地。其西起宜昌枝江,东迄武汉,北自荆门钟祥,南与洞庭湖平原相连,面积约4.6万km2,主要包括荆州市的荆州区、沙市区、江陵县、公安县、监利县、石首市、洪湖市、松滋市8个(县、市)区及仙桃、潜江、天门3个省直管市,并辐射周边武汉、孝感、荆门和宜昌4个市的部分地区。江汉平原因其地跨汉江和素有“九曲回肠”之称的长江而得名,这里地势低平,河道纵横交错,湖泊星罗棋布,呈现出一幅典型的“水乡泽国”和“鱼米之乡”的景色。然而,自20世纪50年代以来,人类对江汉平原湖泊演化的影响达到前所未有的地步,湖群资源从总体上遭受巨大破坏,大量湖泊消亡,湖区生态平衡严重失调,洪涝灾害频率增加,水污染不断加重,严重的水污染已经使相当多的地区出现水质型缺水,水资源受到严重威胁。

关键词： 乾县   气候变化特征   农业   影响  

摘要： 本文采取1988-2017年陕西省咸阳市乾县的气温、降水和日照时数观测资料,首先分析了乾县近三十年来的气候变化特征,接着分析探讨其对农作物的影响。结果表明:近三十年来乾县气温主要呈显著增温变化趋势,气候倾向率为0.536℃/10a;春、夏、秋、冬四季平均气温变化与年变化一致呈增暖趋势,增温幅度最为显著的为春季。降水量大致上呈波动增加的变化趋势,气候倾向率为20.391mm/10a。气候的显著变暖,降水量的波动起伏均会影响到乾县水热平衡以及季节降水的合理分配,进而对各类农作物的正常生长发育和作物病虫害造成一定的影响。只有适时采取有效措施应对异常气候变化,才能促使乾县农业的健康、持续发展。

关键词： 气候变化   规律   农业   影响  

摘要： 依据吉林省榆树市气象局近40 a气温、降水、无霜期等观测数据展开对比分析,研究当地气候变化规律对农业生产的利弊影响,并结合具体情况给出合理建议,为生产决策提供气象依据,希望能为相关工作人员提供一些理论上的参考。

关键词： Climate change   Greenhouse gases   Nutrient cycling   N2O   N-2   Weather anomalies   SWAT-VSA  

摘要： Nutrient export from agricultural landscapes is a water quality concern and the cause of mitigation activities worldwide. Climate change impacts hydrology and nutrient cycling by changing soil moisture, stoichiometric nutrient ratios, and soil temperature, potentially complicating mitigation measures. This research quantifies the impact of climate change and climate anomalies on hydrology, nutrient cycling, and greenhouse gas emissions in an agricultural catchment of the Chesapeake Bay watershed. We force a calibrated model with seven downscaled and bias-corrected regional climate models and derived climate anomalies to assess their impact on hydrology and the export of nitrate (NO3-), phosphorus (P), and sediment, and emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O) and di-nitrogen (N-2). Modelaverage (+/- standard deviation) results indicate that climate change, through an increase in precipitation and temperature, will result in substantial increases in winter/spring flow (10.6 +/- 12.3%), NO3-(17.3 +/- 6.4%), dissolved P (32.3 +/- 18.4%), total P (24.8 +/- 16.9%), and sediment (25.2 +/- 16.6%) export, and a slight increases in N2O (0.3 +/- 4.8%) and N-2 (0.2 +/- 11.8%) emissions. Conversely, decreases in summer flow (-29.1 +/- 24.6%) and the export of dissolved P (-15.5 +/- 26.4%), total P (-16.3 +/- 20.7%), sediment (-20.7 +/- 18.3%), and NO3-(-29.1 +/- 27.8%) are driven by greater evapotranspiration from increasing summer temperatures. Decreases in N2O (-26.9 +/- 15.7%) and N-2 (-36.6 +/- 22.9%) are predicted in the summer and driven by drier soils. While the changes in flow are related directly to changes in precipitation and temperature, the changes in nutrient and sediment export are, to some extent, driven by changes in agricultural management that climate change induces, such as earlier spring tillage and altered nutrient application timing and by alterations to nutrient cycling in the soil. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

关键词： 气候变化   农业生产   种植制度  

摘要： 近年来,气候变化逐渐频繁,这影响了很多行业的发展,其中对我国农业的影响最为严重。对气候变化进行分析对我国农业具有非常积极的意义,基于此,对气候变化进行分析,并结合我国农业生产上的相关经验,得出了其对我国农业上产生的影响,而且通过相应对策可有效应对当前农业生产中存在的问题。