关键词： Climate change   India   Eastern Himalaya   Adaptation   MNL model  

摘要： Adaptation is crucial to curb down the negative impact of climate change particularly on agricultural sector. Hence, a study was conducted to identify the strategies adopted by the cereal growers in Eastern Himalaya region of India and determine the factors affecting them. A total 120 farmers were surveyed from Senapati district in Manipur and East Sikkim district in Sikkim. The widely adopted strategies were the change in transplanting time and change in transplanting as well as harvesting time, which were autonomous, traditional, and taken in response to the scarcity of water. Tobit model has identified that the area under rice cultivation, support received from Village Science Centre, and decline in food availability positively influenced the farmers to adapt to climate change. Multinomial logit model revealed that the female farmers, area under rice cultivation, and decline in rice productivity positively influenced the adoption of the strategies, whereas number of cattle owned, irrigated area, and support from Agricultural Department revealed the negative influence. To sustain farming in hill agriculture, the study recommends the integration of the farmers' knowledge along with scientific measures. Planned intervention, viz., in the form of construction of water harvesting structure, should be initiated by the State Government.

关键词： Agricultural drought   Principal component analysis (PCA)   Vulnerability   South Korea  

摘要： This study aimed to analyze the future vulnerability to agricultural drought of the Korean administrative units of cities (Si) and counties (Gun) following the climate change phenomenon. To assess the vulnerability in a quantitative manner and also to deal with different physical and socioeconomic data on the occurrence of agricultural drought, principal component analysis (PCA), a multivariate statistical analysis method, was adopted, and a vulnerability index, regional vulnerability index to agricultural drought (RVIAD), was suggested. RVIAD having a range from 0.0 to 1.0 was calculated by rescaling the weighted summation of principal component scores. The analysis was performed with all 21 standardized variables in each administrative unit of Si and Gun: 3 sensitivity variables, 8 exposure variables, and 10 adaptation variables. It resulted in four principal components explaining about 85.7% of the total variance, and the third principal component, comprised of only climate variables, was used for applying future climate data from the RCP 8.5 scenario. The districts of Chungchongnam-Do (M1), Jeollabuk-Do (L1), and Jeollanam-Do (L2) were evaluated as having the highest vulnerability to agricultural drought based on the climate change scenario, not only in the present but also in future. Despite the limitation inherent in the PCA, the approach in this study could reflect different factors other than climate factors on minimizing subjective interruption, and such is expected to contribute to improving the decision-making for diagnosing the drought adaptation capacity in a region and developing measures to mitigate the drought damage.

摘要： Actionsonclimatechange(SDG13), includinginthefoodsystem, are crucial. SDG 13 needs to align with the Paris Agreement, given that UNFCCC negotiations set the framework for climate change actions. Food system actions can have synergies and trade-offs, as illustrated by the case for nitrogen fertiliser. SDG 13 actions that reduce emissions can have positive impacts on other SDGs (e. g. 3, 6, 12, 14, 15);but such actions should not undermine the adaptation goals of SDG 13 and SDGs 1, 2, 5 and 10. Balancing trade-offs is thus crucial, with SDG 12 central: responsible consumption and production. Transformative actions in food systems are needed to achieve SDG 13 (and other SDGs), involving technical, policy, capacity enhancement and finance elements. But transformative actions come with risks, for farmers, investors, development agencies and politicians. Likely short and long term impacts need to be understood.

关键词： AGRICULTURE & the environment   CLIMATE change   PHENOTYPES   SMARTPHONES   PLANT breeding  

摘要： Breeding is one of the central pillars of adaptation of crops to climate change. However, phenotyping is a key bottleneck that is limiting breeding efficiency. The awareness of phenotyping as a breeding limitation is not only sustained by the lack of adequate approaches, but also by the perception that phenotyping is an expensive activity. Phenotyping is not just dependent on the choice of appropriate traits and tools (e.g. sensors) but relies on how these tools are deployed on their carrying platforms, the speed and volume of data extraction and analysis (throughput), the handling of spatial variability and characterization of environmental conditions, and finally how all the information is integrated and processed. Affordable high throughput phenotyping aims to achieve reasonably priced solutions for all the components comprising the phenotyping pipeline. This mini-review will cover current and imminent solutions for all these components, from the increasing use of conventional digital RGB cameras, within the category of sensors, to open-access cloud-structured data processing and the use of smartphones. Emphasis will be placed on field phenotyping, which is really the main application for day-to-day phenotyping.

关键词： Holocene   Fire history   Vegetation   South China   Asian summer monsoon   Anthropogenic influence  

摘要： Four cores (GY1, LTY, SZY, GT-2) taken from lowland to mountain sites in southeastern subtropical China were studied. Charcoal and pollen analyses were conducted to examine the regional Holocene fire history and discuss its possible relationship with both climatic changes and anthropogenic activities. Our results show extremely low charcoal influxes between 9.5 and 3.5 cal ka BP, revealing low fire frequency. Meanwhile, high proportions of arboreal pollen demonstrated expansion of subtropical evergreen broadleaf forest. This phase is consistent with heavy precipitation during the early-mid Holocene. After 3.5 cal ka BP., the abrupt increases in fire frequency revealed by core GY1 and LTY were closely related to gradual drying towards the late Holocene, possibly due to the Asian Summer Monsoon weakening and activation of the El Nino Southern Oscillation. Our pollen records also reveal this drying trend after the mid-Holocene, demonstrating a regional retreat of subtropical evergreen forests and local development of Glyptostrobus-dominated wetland community around the LTY and GY1 sites. However, the intensified fires after 3.5 cal ka BP probably resulted mainly from increasing human activities during the Shang-Zhou Bronze age. Pollen results show severe damage of forest by fires, indicated by notable decrease of arboreal pollen and increase of Dicranopteris and herbs. After 2.0 ka, obvious growth of Poaceae, Dicranopteris and Pinus recorded in the GY1 and LTY cores demonstrate agriculture development in low-altitude plains and hills, coinciding with the first human population boom and big progress in agricultural technology during the Warring States to Western Han Dynasty period. Signs of profound human impacts and extensive agriculture in South China appeared after 1.0 cal ka BP, which is revealed by frequent local fires and intensified anthropogenic impact around the mountains sites (SZY and GT-2). Generally, our results reveal a gradual expansion of anthropogenic a

关键词： 气候变化   农业生产   影响  

摘要： 在我国的生产贸易结构中,农业是非常重要的一个部分。近些年,气候变化对其有着较大的影响,尤其是目前全球气候变暖的不断加重,以及其他自然灾害的频繁发生,都不断影响着农业生产,使得农业生产质量和产量受到威胁。本文主要结合铜川市的气候变化,对农业生产所造成的影响进行分析,并提出气候变化为农业生产造成的影响的应对策略。

关键词： SWAT-VSA   Climate change   Agricultural conservation practices   Nutrient cycling   Critical sources areas  

摘要： Agricultural conservation practices (CPs) are commonly implemented to reduce diffuse nutrient pollution. Climate change can complicate the development, implementation, and efficiency of agricultural CPs by altering hydrology, nutrient cycling, and erosion. This research quantifies the impact of climate change on hydrology, nutrient cycling, erosion, and the effectiveness of agricultural CP in the Susquehanna River Basin in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed, USA. We develop, calibrate, and test the Soil and Water Assessment Tool-Variable Source Area (SWAT-VSA) model and select four CPs;buffer strips, strip-cropping, no-till, and tile drainage, to test their effectiveness in reducing climate change impacts on water quality. We force the model with six downscaled global climate models (GCMs) for a historic period (1990-2014) and two future scenario periods (2041-2065 and 2075-2099) and quantify the impact of climate change on hydrology, nitrate-N (NO3-N), total N (TN), dissolved phosphorus (DP), total phosphorus (TP), and sediment export with and without CPs. We also test prioritizing CP installation on the 30% of agricultural lands that generate the most runoff (e.g., critical source areas-CSAs). Compared against the historical baseline and with no CPs, the ensemble model predictions indicate that climate change results in annual increases in flow (4.5 +/- 7.3%), surface runoff (3.5 +/- 6.1%), sediment export (28.5 +/- 18.2%) and TN export (9.5 +/- 5.1%), but decreases in NO3-N (12 +/- 12.8%), DP (14 +/- 11.5), and TP (2.5 +/- 7.4%) export. When agricultural CPs are simulated most do not appreciably change the water balance, however, tile drainage and strip-cropping decrease surface runoff, sediment export, and DP/TP, while buffer strips reduce N export. Installing CPs on CSAs results in nearly the same level of performance for most practices and most pollutants. These results suggest that climate change will influence the performance of agricultural CPs and that targeting

关键词： 农业区   气候变化   干旱   特征   青海   东部  

摘要： 利用青海东部12个测站的1961—2017年的资料序列,分析了气温、降水、蒸发、标准化降水指数(SPI)的变化趋势,及气候变化对干旱气象指数(SPI)的影响。结果表明:青海东部区域平均气温呈非连续性明显升高趋势,线性倾向值为向值为0.396℃/10a,年降水量、年蒸发量及干旱气象指数(SPI)总体呈增加趋势。说明气候变化呈暖湿方向发展,青海东部干旱指数(SPI)与年平均气温、蒸发量与呈反相关,而与降水量呈正相关。

关键词： 农业生产率   要素分解   气候变化   窗口DEA  

摘要： 本文使用新技术窗口DEA中的Window Malmquist指数模型,使用1978-2013年的中国31个省(区)的面板数据,估算了传统农业生产率和气候变化下农业生产率变化情况,并分阶段、分区域比较分析了传统农业生产率和气候变化下农业生产率的差异,以期回答我国农业生产率是否被低估。实证分析后发现:(1) 1978-2013年,有60%年份的气候变化下农业生产率小于传统农业生产率,即传统农业生产率在大部分年份是被高估的。气候变化下的农业生产率更为稳定,表明气候因素对稳定农业生产具有一定的作用。(2)日照时数、降水量的增加有利于西部地区农业生产率的提升,西部地区也是受益于气候变化最明显的地区。1978-2013年,气候因素限制了中国中部地区的传统农业大省的农业生产率,尽管该地区的农业生产率有了提升。(3)技术效率的累积变化和技术进步是推动气候变化下的农业生产率提升的主要贡献因素。(4)在不同政策时期内,气候变化对农业生产率的影响差异较大。对此,本文提出相关对策建议。