关键词： 气候变化   气候资源   农业   影响  

摘要： 为了全面了解气候变化对中国农业的影响,以期为适应气候资源变化可能带来的影响,为国家粮食安全、社会和谐稳定和经济的平稳健康发展提供建议,并为相关研究工作的开展提供指导。文章归纳总结了国内学者关于气候变化对中国农业气候资源和农业生产影响的研究成果、存在的问题,在此基础上,科学展望未来气候变化背景下农业科学研究中亟需开展的工作内容。气候变化对中国农业气候资源的影响主要表现在:伴随着温度的升高,积温增加,热量资源增加,北方增幅大于南方;光资源基本呈减少趋势,但存在区域差异;年降水变化复杂,具有明显的区域性差异,多呈减少趋势。中国开展的气候变化对农业生产的影响研究主要集中于农作物产量、种植制度及种植结构变化的影响,结果显示,农业种植区及种植制度分界线北移,暖干化对农业生产的影响弊大于利,种植结构需要科学调整。气候变化背景下,中国关于气候变化对农产品品质、耕作制度、农业灾害影响等预案不足,应进一步开展气候变化应对措施及其适用范围的试验性研究,加强气候资源高效利用技术、农业生态系统环境调控技术、国家粮食安全关键技术研究和气候变化适应能力建设。

关键词： 气候变化   农业   水稻生产   影响   研究进展  

摘要： 在全球气候变化背景下,我国农业生产活动所受到的影响越来越严重。本文以水稻为研究对象,从生产方式、种植制度、经营方式、结构布局等不同角度总结和分析了气候变化与农业活动之间的相互关系与作用机制。结果表明,现有的研究主要分析气候变化对水稻产量与水稻种植面积的影响,而在水稻生产对气候变化的适应性与脆弱性这一领域,几乎无人问津。鲜有的关于水稻生产对气候变化适应性与脆弱性的研究发现,研究时段长短的差异以及不同的区域水稻生产对气候变化的适应性与脆弱性不尽相同。因此,气候变化背景下水稻种植户的适应性行为研究将成为未来研究的主要方向,加强对这些方面的研究将有助于深化与完善气候变化与农业影响双向互动机制的研究。

关键词： agricultural blue WF   climate change   CMIP5 model   emission scenario   partial least squares regression (PLSR)  

摘要： In the case study of Tangshan city, Hebei Province, China, this paper analyzes the temporal change of the blue agricultural water footprint (WF) during 1991-2016 and discusses the applicability of different climate change models during 2017-2050. Results show effective rainfall, wind speed and maximum temperature are leading factors influencing the blue agricultural WF. Relative error analysis indicates that the HadGEM2-ES model is the most applicable for climate change projections in the period of 2017-2050. Agricultural blue WF is about 1.8 billion m(3) in RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios, which is almost equal to the average value during 1991-2016.

关键词： 农业开发   适应   气候变化  

摘要： 本文分析了我国传统的农业开发,在气候变暖形势下可能受到的影响,研究了我国农业开发怎样适应气候变化的有关策略,其内容涵盖了节水体系建设、农业生产组织化等,并针对我国的农业生产与开发提出了建设性意见。

关键词： 气温   降水   日照时数   变化特征   农业影响  

摘要： 选取宜阳县1989-2018年气温、降水及日照时数等气候观测资料进行统计分析,得出:近30年宜阳县年平均气温趋于升高,年降水量呈现减少趋势,年平均日照时数整体为波动略减少趋势.应加强地方气候变化特征对农业生产的影响分析,趋利避害,促进农业生产发展.

关键词： 气候变化   农业气象   灾害   病虫害  

摘要： 农作物的生长与产量的提高,均依赖于良好的气候条件.我国幅员辽阔,气候带呈多样性,南北气候差异明显,气温的升降或降水量的多少,均适宜不同特性的农业病虫害生长,气候变化所带来的气象灾害以及病虫害严重影响着农业发展,在这个过程当中,病虫害的发生无法避免,给农业生产带来困扰,成为农业生产中威胁农作物生长的重要因素之一.为了确保农作物的生产与农业发展的可持续性,研究气候变化对农业气候灾害和病虫害的影响变得极为必要.

关键词： Climate change   Agriculture   Adaptive capacity   Water   Arizona  

摘要： Climate change will pose unprecedented challenges for agricultural producers globally, requiring the ability to adapt to new and unpredictable conditions. This study explores the adaptive capacity of crop growers in the Verde Valley, Arizona (US). Rather than examining pre-determined indicators of adaptive capacity, this study adopts a situated framework that examines material conditions, perceptions, and the larger social context. Interviewers used past experiences and future scenarios to allow factors that enhance or constrain adaptive capacity to emerge from the interviews. Findings reveal adaptation is site specific but general measures can be taken to enhance adaptive capacity. Encouraging diversity in crops and water sources, the use of drought and heat tolerant crops, and the use of water conservation practices will likely increase growers' adaptive capacity. In contrast, lack of support from organizations and government programs, lack of diverse crops and sources of water, lack of awareness about climate change, and growers' confidence in their ability to always adapt impairs adaptive capacity. Verde Valley growers will need increased support from local and national organizations to adapt to projected changes. The situated framework applied in this study reveals important insights and could be used to explore adaptive capacity in other agricultural regions.

关键词： Climate change   Accuracy of perceptions   Adaptation intentions   Farm level adaptation   Pakistan  

摘要： Farmers' willingness and ability to adapt agricultural systems depend on their knowledge about changes in climate and perceived risks of extreme events. Using cross-sectional data of 450 farmers collected from three agro-ecological zones of Punjab, Pakistan, this study investigates farmer perceptions of climate change and their agreement with observed climatic trends. In addition, this study explores the correlation between different adaptation stages (perceptions, intentions, and adaptation) and their key drivers using a Multivariate Probit Model. This study also explores the adaptation measures adopted by farmers. The results of the study show that the perceptions of increasing mean temperature match well with locally recorded data. However, a discrepancy is found in some cases between farmer perceptions of rainfall changes and local climate records. Moreover, education, experience, land tenure, land holdings, extension, cooperation, access to weather forecasting, and marketing information are the factors influencing the three adaptation stages. A strong association is found among the three adaptation stages. Particularly, the study confirms the hypothesis that accurate perceptions lead to stronger adaptation intentions compared to underestimated or no perceptions. Further, farmers prefer basic adaptation measures including changing crop varieties, input use and planting dates over advanced measures, such as planting shade trees, soil conservation, and crop diversification. The study recommends providing farmers, especially small landholders and tenants, easy access to information, institutional services and training on the use of advanced measures to reduce negative impacts of climate change at the farm level.

关键词： Adaptive capacity   Climate change adaptation   Crop yields   Extreme weather disasters   Sensitivity  

摘要： Recent studies have estimated that climate-generated extreme weather disasters have reduced crop yields globally by up to 10%. By incorporating indicators of adaptive capacity and sensitivity, we develop empirical models of the relationship between extreme weather disasters and agricultural output between 1995 and 2010. Using panel data models, we find that the greater the adaptive capacity of a country, the more attenuated are the expected agricultural losses from extreme weather disasters. In effect, climate-related agricultural consequences vary as a function of the heterogeneity across countries. Much of this heterogeneity in adaptive capacity is a result of policy choices about structural preparedness. Our results allow us to draw inferences about crop yields under different levels of adaptive capacity in the context of climate change.

关键词： Climate change   Wheat   Agricultural production   Mathematical analysis   Crop yield   Agriculture   Temperature   Variations   Precipitation   Mutation   Drying   Agricultural practices   Thresholds   Rainfall   Wheat yield   Climate models   Environmental effects   Environmental impact   Mutations   Temperature effects   Global climate   Spring   Yield   Climate   Climatic changes   Agricultural research   Triticum aestivum  

摘要： As the global climate changes, different degrees of variation in climatic factors will have various impacts on agricultural production, leading to appropriate or stressed conditions. The impact threshold of climate change (ITCC) for agriculture refers to the value of a climatic factor at which the agricultural status mutates. Due to the urgency of addressing the negative impacts of climate change on agriculture, research on the ITCC of agriculture is crucial. Here, we built models to reflect the relationship between agricultural climate yield and climatic factors based on climate change characteristics and objective agricultural status. Using the models, we obtained the appropriate and stressed thresholds of different climatic factors. We calculated the ITCC of spring wheat in Wuchuan County as an example and identified warming and drying trends in Wuchuan County from 1961 to 2013, especially during the period from 1991 to 2013 (i.e., the period after mutation or the change period). Over the past 53 years, spring wheat yield increased with an average rate of 81.3 kg ha(-1) dec(-1). Over the change period, however, yield decreased with an average rate of 13.8 kg ha(-1) dec(-1) and the fluctuation range increased. The appropriate threshold for average temperature during the growth period of spring wheat was 11.4 degrees C, and the stressed thresholds were 8.2 and 14.6 degrees C. The appropriate threshold for precipitation during the growth period was 391.1 mm, and the stressed thresholds were 247.4 and 534.9 mm. During the period before mutation (i.e., the basic period), the average temperature was below the upper temperature threshold, and precipitation was 26.9 mm above the lower precipitation threshold. During the change period, the average temperature was 0.3 degrees C above the upper temperature threshold, and precipitation was 9.8 mm above the lower precipitation threshold.