关键词： 农业   气候变化   气象灾害   病虫害  

摘要： 气候变化有可能带来相应的气象灾害与病虫害变化,从而影响一段时间内农业的顺利进展。因此,积极认识气候变化对农业气象灾害及病虫害的影响则十分重要。在下文中,笔者具体介绍气候变化有可能带来的农业气象灾害与病虫害影响,以期帮助广大农业工作者提升自身对于气候变化的认识。

关键词： Climate change   Agriculture   Sustainability  

摘要： In this dissertation, I explore the overlap between climate change and food production, focusing on the concept of food sovereignty and the potential for ecological farming to help mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. I unveil how the concepts of food sovereignty and agroecology are (and are not) being taken up by Canadian farmers, farmers' organizations and others who have a stake in climate change debates. Based on two years of scholar-activist-oriented research, including interviews with farmers and ethnographic engagements on farms and at events focused on agricultural politics and practices, I describe the opportunities and constraints for agroecological approaches to contribute to mitigating climate change, as well as the significant political, geographical and socio-cultural challenges that are generally inhibiting the actualization of food sovereignty in Canada. Focusing on the work of La Vía Campesina's two member organizations in this country, the National Farmers Union (NFU) and Union Paysanne, I am concerned with the basic problem of how tensions between systemic and pragmatic changes are articulated through agroecology initiatives and food sovereignty advocacy. My essential claim is that a broad counterhegemonic movement will be required in order for there to be a significant shift in climate and food politics in Canada. Food sovereignty and agroecology have the potential to be incorporated into a system change agenda, I argue, but any serious effort to move them forward, and tackle climate change, will require confronting capitalism itself. I do not suggest that this will necessarily require overt anticapitalist campaigns, but rather that farmers and other food sovereignty proponents will do well to grapple with the structural constraints within capitalism, while finding ways to talk about and pursue radical change through ostensibly more prosaic initiatives. As part of the counterhegemonic shift I am pointing to, I also argue that farmers' organizations

关键词： 水资源优化分配   气候变化   农业种植结构   SWAT模型   疏勒河流域  

摘要： 疏勒河流域是我国西北干旱区典型的内陆河流域,水资源是限制当地社会经济可持续发展的重要因素。近年来,气候变化与人类活动的双重驱动,以及常年的过度用水,导致该流域出现了水资源短缺、地下水位下降、植被退化、土地荒漠化等一系列环境问题。而疏勒河流域各类型用水量中,农业灌溉用水所占比例高达80%以上,因此,未来在保证流域社会经济水平继续提高和生态环境不断改善的前提下,水资源优化分配,尤其是农业用水及种植结构的优化对该流域可持续发展至关重要。本文利用SWAT模型,选取IPCC提出的RCP2.6,RCP4.5和RCP8.5三种未来气候变化情景,开展了2020—2050年疏勒河流域水资源总量模拟研究;并用灰色模型预测了未来工业用水、居民生活用水、城镇公共用水及林牧渔畜用水量;通过引入水资源开发利用率指标,提升了流域生态用水量比例,最终得到未来农业灌溉可用水量。同时,通过资料收集和问卷调查方式,得到该流域主要农作物类型的成本、收入、产量和灌溉用水量基础数据,构建了疏勒河流域农业多目标优化模型,利用多目标遗传算法开展了疏勒河流域未来三种气候变化情景下的农业种植结构及其相应的水资源优化,并评价了节水技术对疏勒河流域农业发展的影响,实现了疏勒河流域未来水资源的优化分配。取得主要结论如下:（1）疏勒河流域用水量在2005—2010年逐年上升,2011—2017年逐年下降,其中农业灌溉用水量常年占用水总量的80%以上。2011—2017年间,随着灌溉用水量的减少,棉花、小麦等农作物种植面积逐年下降,而玉米、蔬菜、药材等作物的种植面积逐年上升。（2）SWAT模型对疏勒河流域水文现状模拟较好,对月尺度数据的模拟验证结果显示,各个水文站点效率系数均在0.55以上。对2020—2050年间三个气候变化情景下的水资源量进行模拟,结果显示,随着RCP情景中设定的温室气体浓度升高,水资源总量呈增加趋势,其中RCP8.5的年均水资源量为29.2亿m3,RCP4.5为28.3亿m3,RCP2.6为27.5亿m3,较2005-2017年年均水资源总量25.7亿m3均有升高。（3）使用灰色模型对2020—2050年间的工业用水、林牧渔畜用水、居民生活用水、城镇公共用水进行了预测。结果显示,工业用水和林牧渔畜用水在逐年减少,而城镇公共和居民生活用水在逐年增加。（4）为保证流域生态用水量,设置该流域水资源开发利用率在2020—2050年间逐年下降,至2050年下降到24%的水资源利用规划目标,预测得到2020—2050年间的生态用水量,进而得到农业灌溉可用水量。结果显示,随着水资源开发利用率的逐年下降,农业灌溉可用水量由2020年的8.72亿m3（RCP2.6）、9.13亿m3（RCP4.5）和9.54亿m3（RCP8.5）下降到2050年的5.60亿m3（RCP2.6）、4.64亿m3（RCP4.5）和4.18亿m3（RCP8.5）。（5）以疏勒河流域农业收益、农业产值、灌溉用水效益最大化为目标,构建农业多目标优化模型,对农业种植结构及灌溉用水量进行优化。结果显示,疏勒河流域农作物种植结构需调整为以制种类、香料类作物和小麦、玉米等为主。且随着RCP情景中设定的温室气体浓度升高,香料类和制种类的面积都呈现增加趋势。与农作物种植结构调整相对应的,小麦、玉米、制种类和香料类在三个情景下用水量占农业灌溉总用水量的比例均较大。结合优化后的农业效益、农业产值和水效益情况看,RCP8.5情景下的农业效益是最高的,其次是RCP4.5,最后是RCP2.6情景。这说明,在不考虑气候变暖对社会、经济、环境造成的其他负面影响前提下,气候变暖对该流域水资源供给和提升农业综合效益可能是有利的。（6）设立不同节水率情景,对节水技术应用下的农业收益、农业产值和用水效益进行优化分析。结果显示,在农业水资源一定的情况下,节水率越高,农业总收益、农业总产值和用水效益整体越高。综上,本研究通过水文模型模拟方法得到了未来气候变化背景下的疏勒河流域水资源量变化情况;在保证生态用水安全的前提下,预估了未来的农业灌溉可用水量;在此基础上,通过构建农业多目标优化模型,对未来农业种植结构和用水分配进行了优化。研究结果说明在未来气候变化背景下,为保护生态环境,通过优化调整可以实现农业水资源减少而农业效益提高的双赢发展目标。研究结果将为干旱区农业发展、生态环境保护及水资源开发利用提供科学借鉴。

关键词： Climate Change   Crop Abandonment   Irrigation   High Plains Aquifer   Conservation   Carbon Sequestration  

摘要： Agriculture and climate change are closely connected as climate change impacts agriculture through crop yield loss, reduction in area harvested and increase in irrigation water use. Agriculture plays both roles in the emission and sequestration of greenhouse gases. This dissertation is divided into two main parts. The first part has two essays that examine the impacts of climate change on winter wheat production and irrigation water use. The second part examines the cost–effectiveness of using lands under the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) to sequester carbon through tree planting program. This dissertation contributes to the literature by showing how crop yield variability is not the same as production variability. The total impact of climate change is underestimated if climate change impact on yield alone is used. Another contribution to the literature is the modeling of crop abandonment in relation to climate change using correlated random effects fractional probit model. My work also illustrates how irrigation water use will change and how this change will impact the level of water in the aquifer by mid–century. In my first essay, I examine the impact of climate change on winter wheat production in Kansas. I decompose the total impact of weather variables on wheat production in Kansas through crop abandonment and yield. Using yield impacts alone to measure the climate change impact on production underestimates the total impact of climate change on production. I use the correlated random effects fractional probit model to estimate crop abandonment and account for unobserved heterogeneity between time–invariant variables and yield. The result projects a 16.3% decrease in winter wheat production by mid–century under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5. I find that 86.72% of the projected decrease in production is due to the reduction in yield while crop abandonment is projected to decrease production by 13.17%. Yield is projected to decrease by 1

关键词： Climate change   Environmental health   Agriculture  

摘要： Anthropogenic climate change is expected to influence pest dynamics and pesticide application timing and rate, but little research has attempted to quantify the relationship or associated health impacts. Changing pesticide applications will impact risk of human exposure, particularly in agricultural communities. A multi-disciplined analysis method is presented here that assesses the association between climate change and agricultural pesticide use, utilizing a combination of climate science, ecological assessment, and public health methods to examine how pesticide use has and is expected to increase with climate change, and what that entails for human health. Presented here is a spatial and temporal assessment of the impacts of climate change on insecticide use and human health in the California Central Valley. Historical climate data was utilized to estimate degree-days and pest generations for economic pests of concern on the almond crop. Statistically downscaled climate model projections were then used to calculate pest dynamics through 2099. Results indicated an increase of one to two full generations for both pests considered in the analysis by the end of the century. Pesticide use reports were next assessed for trends in insecticide use as well as correlation with degree-days and climate. The modelled relationship was applied to climate projections to project insecticide use through 2099. Insecticide use was found to have a strong seasonal trend, with most applications occurring in the southern region; use was projected to increase throughout the entire valley by the end of the century. A geospatial assessment of insecticide use intensity and demographics was then used to characterize populations that are more likely to be exposed to insecticides in the Central Valley. This assessment maps areas with the greatest risk of exposure potential, based on use intensity and proximity to orchards, and identifies areas that are disproportionately impacted based on soci

关键词： 气候变化   特征分析   农业   太原市  

摘要： 近1000年以来以气候变暖为特征的全球气候变化己成为公认的事实,且气候变化的剧烈程度在加深,影响范围在逐渐扩大。这种变化趋势给我国经济社会可持续发展带来了严峻考验,尤其是农作物由于其生长属性的特殊性,气温、降水、日照等气候因素的影响尤为关键。因此,分析气候变化的特征趋势及其对农业的影响,不仅对客观评价过去气候变化对粮食生产和农业发展的影响具有重要的现实意义,亦有助于农业部门制定行之有效地减缓并适应气候变化的对策。在乡村振兴的时代背景下,太原市于2018年初获批建设国家可持续发展议程创新示范区,促进农业生产适应气候变化,实现农业的可持续发展是这一历史进程中不可或缺的一环。本文以太原市为例,利用1985年-2017年逐月平均气温、降水量和日照时数,选择滑动平均、M-K突变检验分析、小波变换分析等多种气象学统计方法,分析了这33年间气候的变化趋势和特征,并通过构建多元回归方程,分析各个气象要素及其变化率对农业生产的影响,其中,分别用农业生产总值和农业生产效率来表征农业的产出,对农业的发展水平和状态进行量化界定。研究结果表明:(1)年均气温和春、夏、秋季均温呈较明显的上升趋势;年降水量无明显变化趋势,其中秋季降水有一定增加,在周期分析中,冬季降水量在8a以上有一个明显周期,是一个湿-干-湿-干-湿的变化;年日照时数总体上无明显变化趋势,但春季有明显增加趋势,四季日照时数的周期变化趋势均与年日照时数的周期一致,且都在13a以上尺度内存在明显的3个时期的循环交替变化。(2)在以农业生产总值为解释变量的回归过程中,气温的系数值较小,说明影响程度不大,但系数值为正值,说明温度的升高会促进农业产值的增加;在以农业生产效率为解释变量的回归过程中,气温、日照的系数为正值且相差不大,说明二者对农业效率的作用大小接近,二者变化率的系数值均为负值,说明变化越剧烈,越不利于农业生产效率的提高。(3)针对定量分析所得结果,分别从政策导向、生产导向、技术导向、防范导向和宣传导向5个方面提出相关对策建议,用以指导农业生产发展更好地适应气候变化。

关键词： 气候变化   农业气象灾害   病虫害  

摘要： 我国在经济发展过程中,面临着严重的环境污染问题,气候变化一直是我国居民关注的重点问题,这是因为气候变化会给国家农业生产造成破坏,尤其是在农业气象灾害和病虫害方面,带来很大危害。本篇文章以衡阳县作为研究对象,对衡阳县气候变化同农业气象灾害与病虫害之间的关系进行了阐述,希望可以提高我国农业气象灾害和病虫害的防治水平。

关键词： Green Lean   Lean tools   5S   Value stream mapping   Agriculture  

摘要： Increased global competition in the agricultural sector is rapidly changing the structure of farms and farming. As the number of small and diversified farms (often family-owned) decreases, the number of large and specialized farms (often corporate-owned) is increasing. In this transformation, the agricultural sector is more and more concerned with strategy, innovation, and competition in the effort to be more productive and more profitable. At the same time, the sector faces demands that it become more environmentally responsible in its policies and practices. This paper proposes a Lean Implementation Framework that small and mid-size farms can use as they aim to increase production and profit and yet support environmental sustainability. This case study takes an action-oriented research approach that focuses on the implementation of a Green Lean approach at 34 Swedish farms using various Lean tools. The paper describes how training sessions, farm visits, workshops, and counseling were used to introduce the farmers to the benefits and risks of the implementation of a new business model that added Green elements to the traditional business model design. The paper concludes with recommendations for adaptations to the Framework and suggestions for future research. (C) 2018 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

关键词： 气候变化   气象灾害   防御措施   辽宁大连   旅顺口区  

摘要： 对1990—2005年大连市旅顺口区的气象观测资料统计分析发现,旅顺口区气候发生了较为明显的变化,如暖冬现象日趋明显、年降水量逐年下降等。在此基础上,本文总结了旅顺口区主要农业气象灾害的特点,并提出了防灾减灾措施,以尽量减轻或避免气象灾害对旅顺口区农业产生灾害性影响。

关键词： 气候变化   农业生产效率   随机前沿分析模型  

摘要： 二氧化碳排放量增加,全球气候变暖已经成为全人类不可忽视的问题。全球温度升高带来冰川融化、海平面升高、降雨增多等一系列极端气候问题。农作物生长对气候环境变化最为敏感,有科学研究证明气候变化会导致农业生产效率降低。我国是重要的农业生产国,应用随机前沿分析模型对我国30个省份1990～2010年的农业生产效率进行测算,并比较对我国东西部的不同影响。结果表明,气候变化对我国西部的农业生产效率影响高于东部,这也说明了,农业生产技术进步可以减小环境气候变化带来的影响。