关键词： 农户   适应能力   限制因子   青藏高原   气候变化  

摘要： 全球变化背景下,适应气候变化已成为可持续发展的准则。农户是农村社会最重要、最基本的生产单位,通过农户对气候变化适应能力评价及其限制因子的诊断研究,可以提高农户适应行为的有效性,增强适应能力。本研究借鉴可持续生计框架和适应能力评估框架,以青藏高原典型农业区,湟水中下游14个行政村为研究对象,基于入户问卷调查数据,构建该区域的农户对气候变化适应能力评价指标体系,应用适应能力指数模型,进行农户对气候变化适应能力定量评价,并通过障碍度模型,诊断分析主要限制性因子。结果表明:1)湟水中下游地区农户对气候变化感知较为准确;2)农户适应能力的高低用适应能力指数(ACI)表示,研究区农户适应能力处于较高状态,以适应能力0.280≤ACI <0.320的农户为主体。研究区自东向西随着海拔的升高,样本村农户适应能力总体呈现下降趋势;3)维度层表明,自然能力和经济能力对农户适应能力的影响较大。指标层表明,耕地质量、经济收入多元性、获得现金帮助的途径、家庭年收入、劳动力受教育水平和农作物需水量紧缺度为主要限制性因子;4)湟水中下游地区农户适应能力高低的核心因子为农户家庭年收入。

关键词： 中国农业科学院茶叶研究所   模拟系统   气候变化   茶园   田间   土壤微生物群落   CO2浓度   Carbon  

摘要： 近日,中国农业科学院茶叶研究所建成一套能精准控制CO2浓度和温度等因子的茶园气候变化田间模拟系统。该系统是集合了FACE(Free-Air Carbon dioxide Enrichment)和BACE(Boston-Area Climate Experiment)关键技术的OTC (Open-top Chamber)系统。旨在研究气候变化(CO2浓度和温度升高)条件下茶树生理代谢的响应规律、茶园土壤微生物群落的演变及其对土壤质量的影响、茶园主要病虫害发生及其与茶树代谢的互作关系和调控机理等科学问题,研发茶园应对气候变化共性关键技术。

关键词： 气候变化   农业气象灾害   防灾减灾   仙桃市  

摘要： 利用1981—2017年湖北省仙桃市常规气象资料,对仙桃市37 a来气候变化趋势和主要农业气象灾害进行统计分析。结果表明:仙桃市气候变暖趋势明显,变暖季节主要在秋、冬两季;高温热害、暴雨洪涝灾害发生频次增多,低温灾害呈下降趋势。农业气象灾害对仙桃市农业生产的影响呈增加趋势,整体弊大于利。通过分析为仙桃市合理利用气候资源、调整农业种植结构以及为农服务中防灾减灾提供科学的气象依据。

关键词： Farmers' organization   Climate change adaptation   Impact evaluation   Nepal  

摘要： The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of community-based organizations (CBOs) on the adoption of agricultural adaptations to climate change impacts. To this end, we first analyze farmers' perceptions on changes in local climatic condition, its impact and adaptations on agriculture based on information collected through a questionnaire survey of 720 farming households in six districts of Nepal. The findings reveal a widespread feeling of weather getting warmer, decreasing precipitation, and increasing weather unpredictability. It is found that climate change has adversely affected agriculture in Nepal, and farmers have adopted various adaptation practices to minimize the impacts. Second, we employ propensity score matching technique to examine the impact of CBOs on climate change adaptation. About 62% of the sampled farming households were associated with CBOs, and several socioeconomic factors influence such association. This study provides evidence supporting the argument that CBOs play important role in reducing the negative impacts of climate change by enhancing the adoption of adaptation strategies. It is also evident from the study the need of further strengthening and institutionalizing the informal farmers' groups and institutions for the successful adaptation.

关键词： Climate change  

摘要： Batad Rice Terraces of Ifugao, Philippines, is declared as a Globally Important Agricultural Heritage System due to its traditional system characterized with a synergy of goals of biodiversity conservation, sustainable productivity, and strengthening of traditions and culture. It is also inscribed as a World Heritage Site by the UNESCO. However, in spite of the fact that it is considered a living sustainable agricultural system, it is hypothesized that the rice terraces are not immune to the impacts brought about by climate change. This study aimed to determine the level of vulnerability of Batad Rice Terraces to climate change impacts. To do this, the study examined the vulnerability as a function of exposure (E), sensitivity (S), and adaptive capacity (AC). The study used 28 indicators: 5 for exposure, 12 for sensitivity, and 11 for adaptive capacity. A total of 114 respondents were interviewed and focus group discussions were conducted in July-August 2017. Results of the study showed that the vulnerability rating for the study was 0.51 (E=0.40;S=0.65;and AC=0.51) which indicated that Batad Rice Terraces is moderately vulnerable to climate change impacts. Of the 28 indicators, the key vulnerability indices are from sensitivity and adaptive capacity components. Under sensitivity, it includes acidic soil pH, soil potassium deficiency, the perceived increase in the presence of pests, the high dependence on irrigation structure, agricultural unsuitability, and food import dependency, while adaptive capacity indicators include the declining practice of key traditions and the low number of farmers per household.

关键词： 气候变化   山西农业   气候现象  

摘要： 气候最初的含义是长时间形成的天气情况,也就是在持续许多时间之后而形成的自然现象。也正是由于气候这个天然属性,使得气候在形成的过程中会受到多种因素的影响。在以前的时代,气候多数情况下是由于自然环境的变化而产生了不同的变化,或者说形成了不同类型的气候现象。而随着人类活动的不断频繁,其影响到了自然环境,进而在影响气候方面也是显著的,因此,在进行研究气候的时候需要明确人在其中的具体作用,也正是由于人在其中的具体作用,气候的变化就会反过来对人的生产生活产生影响。当然,对于气候来说其影响最为直接的就是农业发展。所以,本文主要研究的就是我国山西省农业发展受到气候的影响情况。

关键词： Climate change   Insurance   Meteorology   Policy  

摘要： Hebei Province is a region sensitive to global climate change. Under the background of climate change and frequent extreme climate events, existing agricultural production structure is facing enormous risk of climate disasters. In order to reduce the risk level of agricultural meteorological disasters, it is imperative to implement effective agro-insurance meteorological services. This paper analyses the facts of climate change, the trend and influence of extreme weather and climate events in recent years. Based on the simulation results of climate models under moderate and high emission scenarios, the distribution characteristics of mean annual and seasonal air temperature in Hebei Province in the first 50 years of the 21st century are given, and the main problems in the practice of agricultural insurance in Hebei Province are pointed out. This paper also puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions for optimizing the agricultural insurance policy and improving the meteorological service effect of agricultural insurance. © 20219 Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response. All rights reserved.

关键词： 气候变化   原始农业   中国科学家   科学研究方法   气候环境变化   研究人员   农业起源   时空格局  

摘要： 研究人员以史为鉴,同时融入新的科学研究方法和考古手段,在中国两河(长江、黄河)流域的稻作和旱作农业起源、演化和发展的时空格局及动因模式方面提出了中国科学家的原创性、理论性看法,以期进一步探索人类适应极端气候环境变化的规律。

关键词： 青藏高原   气候变化   增温   降水  

摘要： 气候变化已成为全球公认的环境问题,主要因人类活动温室气体排放增加导致,青藏高原是气候变化的敏感区,生态环境和农业生产受气候变化的影响较大,研究气候变化对西藏农业的应对意义重大。文章综述了当前西藏气候变化方面的研究进展,分析气候变化对西藏农业产生的影响,西藏的温度增加趋势比较明显,高于全球同纬度的平均增温速率。降水量也呈增加趋势,增温与降水在空间上具有不一致性,西藏的气候将朝着暖湿化方向发展,对农业的生产形成较大的挑战。冬春季的增温趋势使得作物的物候期提前,使得播期提前,作物的布局向高纬度和高海拔地区推移,有利于套复种。温度增加使土壤中微生物的活性增加,加速对土壤有机质的分解,土壤有机质含量呈下降趋势。气候变化对西藏的农业生产带来了影响,严重威胁到西藏的粮食生产安全问题,需要积极探寻应对策略。

关键词： 气候变化   农业技术   农业适宜性  

摘要： 随着全球气候的变化,各行各业如何应对当前气候的变化已经成为了各方关注的热点话题,所以农业领域将会采用什么样的方法来实现对于气候变化的应对性将会是学术界的一个热点,本文将从农业适宜性的影响以及实现农业适应性的措施以及如何对农业适宜性的实行成功与否的评价方案等方面进行一个简单的介绍,构建出一个农业适宜性方法的理论,以期为未来农业适宜性的发展做出一点贡献。