关键词： Global warming   Automated statistical downscaling method (ASD model)   Non-point source pollution   Prediction ability   Freeze-thaw agricultural area  

摘要： Precipitation and temperature in freeze-thaw agricultural area have different patterns under global warming. In this study, a statistical relationship between large-scale changes in climate variables and local weather data was built by applying an automated statistical downscaling (ASD) model in the Sanjiang Plain in China. We evaluated the prediction ability of the ASD model in terms of spatial-temporal changes in freeze-thaw agricultural area, and the temperature and precipitation changes in the twenty-first century under the representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario were estimated. The results revealed that the explained variances in temperature were higher than 0.93 during the calibration and verification periods, which demonstrated good simulation capacity. The R-2 of precipitation was acceptable due to the randomness and complexity of daily precipitation. Based on the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Earth System Model with the Generalized Ocean Layer Dynamics component (GFDL-CM3), the regional climate simulation provided good predictions. By 2100, the average, maximum and minimum temperatures in this area could increase by 2.0-2.5 degrees C, 2.5 degrees C and 2.5-4.0 degrees C, respectively. In terms of the spatial distribution, temperatures could increase faster in the northern region and slower in the central and southern regions. The warming trends in summer and winter were more significant than those in spring and autumn. There was no significant change in annual precipitation in the twenty-first century (increased approximately 10mm by 2100). Precipitation decreased obviously in July and August (approximately 0.4mm/day), and other months showed an increasing trend (approximately 0.5-0.9mm/day). There will be large spatial variation of precipitation in the future changes. The results could serve as a reference for assessing non-point source pollution and agricultural management.

关键词： Climate change   Trade liberalization   Welfare   Computable general equilibrium model  

摘要： Using a computable general equilibrium framework, this paper uses Sri Lanka and Bangladesh as case studies in examining the associated macroeconomic and sectoral impacts under two different climate change scenarios. Our results indicate that a nation's welfare deteriorates due to technical efficiency losses from climate change. Neither unilateral nor regional trade liberalization as a mitigating option improves welfare in these countries. For Sri Lanka, global full trade liberalization of all commodities is the optimum policy with some welfare gains. For Bangladesh on the other hand, regional partial agricultural trade liberalization is the optimum option with the least welfare deterioration. These results show that under climate change, countries within South Asia should respond differently to climate-induced crop productivity changes and no one optimum policy fits all. (C) 2019 Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of Economic Society of Australia, Queensland.

关键词： 桐城市   热量资源   气候变化   响应  

摘要： 根据1961—2017年桐城市气温及初、终霜期等气象资料,采用数理统计方法,分析了桐城市的气温和稳定通过0与10℃农业热量资源及初、终霜期的变化特征及其对气候变化的响应规律。结果表明,桐城地区气候总体呈微弱的变暖趋势,且冬、春季气候变暖明显,夏、秋季节则呈变凉趋势,并存在3个温暖期和2个温凉期。农业热量资源越来越丰富,≥0℃初日和≥10℃初日均呈微小的提早趋势,但1997年以后存在明显的推迟;≥0℃终日和≥10℃终日均呈延迟趋势,且1997年以后延迟明显;≥0℃和≥10℃初日与终日之间的持续日数均呈延长趋势,2011年以后延长显著;活动积温虽然总体是增多的,但20世纪80年代中期以前是呈减少的趋势,以后则呈增多的趋势,尤其是2011年以来活动积温显著增多。无霜期显著增多,2011—2017年无霜期长达264.6d。

关键词： 气候   农业生产   影响   对策   甘肃平凉   崆峒区  

摘要： 简述了平凉市崆峒区近20年气候变化对农作物生长发育、产量、品质及农业灾害等的影响,分析现状及存在的问题,提出相应的措施,合理种植布局,为平凉市制定农业发展计划提供参考。

关键词： 新疆生产建设兵团   农业经济   气候变化   脉冲响应函数  

摘要： 气象灾害冲击农业生产,对农业经济产生显著影响。文章对1980—2016年新疆生产建设兵团(简称兵团)农业经济、农业气象灾害进行了分析,利用SVAR模型构建兵团农业经济、劳动力、土地、投资和气象灾害等要素的动态结构关系,利用脉冲函数分析兵团农业经济受到要素变化冲击时的动态响应。研究表明:农业是兵团经济的基础,长期稳定增长;兵团农业气象灾害日趋严重,极端天气造成气象灾害波动性增强;旱灾逐渐减弱,风雹灾害增加,低温冻害有增加趋势;兵团农业经济显著受到土地等自然资源的影响,劳动力和经济自身产生的长期效应明显,固定资产投资效应滞后严重,气象灾害负向效应周期长,农业对气象灾害的适应能力和自我缓解能力不足。

关键词： 气候变化   农业生产   应对方法  

摘要： 全球气候变化的主要特征表现为气候变暖,基于这一环境下,区域气候随之也发生了改变,甘肃河东地区处于东部季风区域,这里的气候变化无常,生态环境比较脆弱,将气象观测材料利用起来,用于研究这一地区气候变化在农业生产方面的影响程度,可使农业朝着稳定的方向发展。

关键词： Rainfall runoff inundation model   Flood hazard   Damage assessment   Climate change   Southeast Asia  

摘要： This study focused on flood damage assessment for future floods under the impact of climate change. Four river basins of Southeast Asia were selected for the study. They included the Pampanga River Basin (PRB) in the Philippines, the Solo River Basin (SRB) in Indonesia, the Lower Mekong River Basin (LMRB) in Cambodia and Vietnam, and the Chao Phraya River Basin (CPRB) in Thailand. Flood damage to rice crops was assessed by flood damage functions considering flood depth and duration and the growth stage of rice plants. Flood characteristics such as flood depth, duration, and distribution were computed using the rainfall-runoff-inundation model to assess flood hazards under the present and future climatic conditions produced by MRI-AGCM3.2S. The damage assessment methodology for rice crops employed in this study was verified using data on past flood events. Then, flood damage assessment was conducted for both the present climate (1979-2003) and future climate (2075-2099) conditions, using MRI-AGCM3.2S precipitation datasets. Flood damage was assessed for worst cases chosen from each climate period and for floods of 50- and 100-year return periods with different rainfall patterns chosen from each climate scenario. The results of flood hazard and damage assessment show that the flood inundation area for a 100-year flood may increase in the future by 20% in PRB;by 66% in SRB;by 27% in LMRB;and by 27% in CPRB. The flood damage area of paddy fields for a 100-year flood may also increase in the future by 16% in PRB;by 55% in SRB;by 23% in LMRB;and by 13% in CPRB.

关键词： climate change   energy   greenhouse gas emissions   innovation   agri-food  

摘要： Climate change is observed globally, and the projections predict that the change will continue in the future for quite a long time. The mitigation and adaptation to climate change, however, are offering tremendous business opportunities around the world, especially for businesses operating in the agri-food, energy, finance, and health sectors, water infrastructure, built environments, and other relevant services. When the severity of heat waves is considered, for instance, it would become quite clear that the demand for cooling would accelerate, putting further stress on energy supply and increasing the risk of electricity black outs. Similarly, the projections also provide warnings about increased drought risk in many regions around the globe, and even worse, it should also be emphasized that 60% more food will be needed globally, while 100% more demand for food is projected in developing countries by the year 2050. While all these are being projected, we are experiencing progressively increasing stress on our global freshwater resources, which are worsened further by climate change-driven impacts and water pollution. Consequently, reducing agri-food production systems' susceptibility to climate change and strengthening the resilience of such systems are extremely important to sustain and improve the livelihoods of billions of people around the globe. Moreover, reducing emissions due to fossil fuels consumption and production is vital for the whole global population, and agri-food and energy sectors have tremendous potentials for reducing inefficiencies and emissions while simultaneously playing their crucial roles in food and energy security as well as poverty reduction. Both of these sectors are facing significant climate change-driven challenges, which provide ample opportunities for cutting-edge novel knowledge and innovative products, processes, services, and policies. And due to the reciprocal relationships between climate change and agri-food and energy inno

关键词： Nepal   Himalaya   Food security   Crop yield   Climate change  

摘要： The paradigmatic Dudh Koshi basin laid at the toe of Mt. Everest is largely visited by tourists every year, and yet agricultural productivity and food security therein are at stake under climate change. Agricultural yield in the area recently decreased, and the question arose whether cropping at higher altitudes may help adaptation. We investigated here the present, and future (until 2100) patterns of productivity of three main rain-fed crops in the catchment (wheat Triticum L., rice Oryza L., and maize Zea Mais L.). We explored food security using a nutritional index, given by the ratio of the caloric content from our target cereals, to daily caloric demand. We preliminary investigated whether vertical extension of the cropped area may increase food security. We did so by (i) mapping crops area using remote sensing, (ii) setting up the agronomic model Poly-Crop, (iii) feeding Poly-Crop with downscaled outputs from global climate models, and (iv) projecting vertical land occupation for cropping, population projections, and nutritional requirements. We estimated crop yield and food security at half century (2040-2050), and end of century (2090-2100), against a control run decade CR (2003 - 2013), under constant land use, and projected land occupation. On average, specific wheat yield would decrease against CR by - 25% (rice -42%, maize -46%) at 2100, with largely yearly variability for unchanged land use scenario. Under modified land use scenario, wheat yield would decrease by - 38%, while rice and maize yield would improve, maize very slightly ( - 22%, and - 45%, against CR) in response to occupation of higher altitudes than now. Our food security index would decrease under all scenarios (111% in 2010, 49% on average at 2050, under a population peak, and 51% at 2100), and become more variable, however with potential for adaptation by colonization of higher lands (75%, 62%, at 2050, 2100). Very large expansion of one cereal (i.e. maize), may make food security more u

关键词： 热量资源   界限温度   积温   无霜期   喀什  

摘要： 利用喀什市气象局1971—2010年逐日气象资料,运用线性回归、P检验、Mann-Kendall突变检验等方法分析了喀什市热量资源对气候变化的响应特征及对农业的影响。结果表明:近40 a喀什市年平均气温呈极显著上升趋势,并于2000年发生了增暖性突变;无霜期明显延长,于1999年从一个相对偏短期跃变为一个相对偏长期;各界限温度积温和持续日数均呈增加趋势;0℃积温在2004年发生了由少到多的突变,20℃初、终日,持续日数,活动积温均在1999年发生了突变,其它各级农业界限温度出现日期、持续日数及活动积温未出现气候突变现象。喀什市热量资源整体增加趋势对农业生产有利。