关键词： SWAT模型   农业面源污染   气候变化   定量影响评估   营口地区  

摘要： 结合SWAT模型,定量分析气候变化对营口地区农业面源污染的影响。研究结果表明:气候变化对区域农业面源污染有显著影响,其中温度升高2℃,其总氮含量减少11.4%,总磷含量减少11.6%,降水增加10mm,其总氮含量增加17.9%,总磷含量增加18.7%。研究结果对于应对气候变化区域水资源安全规划具有重要的参考价值。

关键词： agriculture   climate change adaptation   stakeholder responsibility  

摘要： Achieving climate change (CC) resilience in a timely and efficient fashion is becoming a major priority across multiple sectors. Agricultural CC adaptation has become an integrated part of agricultural development policy throughout the EU and further. Without the timely implementation of appropriate measures, the vulnerability of highly exposed and sensitive agricultural landscapes with low adaptive capacity will increase. This paper focuses on the Vipava Valley, a sub-Mediterranean agricultural area highly vulnerable to CC, describing the stakeholder landscape approach undertaken to define stakeholder responsibility level in terms of implementing adaptation measures;and it identifies the key challenges facing stakeholder networks at individual measure levels. The strategy for agricultural CC adaptation follows the structure proposed by the European Commission and clearly defines the necessary stakeholder landscape for implementing agricultural CC adaptation measures and indicators for adaptation strategy monitoring and evaluation. The challenges identified in relation to stakeholder interaction cannot be solved by strategy alone;a facilitated approach to policy implementation is necessary, its success being dependent on the ability of the social landscape to develop a firm implementation of a monitoring programme for adaptation to CC at the local municipality level.

关键词： adaptation   climate change   food security   impact   IPCC   mitigation   policy  

摘要： Since 1990, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has produced five Assessment Reports (ARs), in which agriculture as the production of food for humans via crops and livestock have featured in one form or another. A constructed database of the ca. 2,100 cited experiments and simulations in the five ARs was analyzed with respect to impacts on yields via crop type, region, and whether adaptation was included. Quantitative data on impacts and adaptation in livestock farming have been extremely scarce in the ARs. The main conclusions from impact and adaptation are that crop yields will decline, but that responses have large statistical variation. Mitigation assessments in the ARs have used both bottom-up and top-down methods but need better to link emissions and their mitigation with food production and security. Relevant policy options have become broader in later ARs and included more of the social and nonproduction aspects of food security. Our overall conclusion is that agriculture and food security, which are two of the most central, critical, and imminent issues in climate change, have been dealt with an unfocussed and inconsistent manner between the IPCC five ARs. This is partly a result of not only agriculture spanning two IPCC working groups but also the very strong focus on projections from computer crop simulation modeling. For the future, we suggest a need to examine interactions between themes such as crop resource use efficiencies and to include all production and nonproduction aspects of food security in future roles for integrated assessment models.

关键词： 气候变化   农业生产   影响   土默特右旗  

摘要： 本文利用土默特右旗气象局提供的1989~2018年逐月平均气温、降水量资料,选用一元线性回归法和滑动平均法对土默特右旗的气候变化特征进行分析,并探讨了其对农业生产的影响。结果表明:土默特右旗平均气温呈现出逐年增加的趋势,其气候倾向率为0.613℃/10a;四季平均气温均呈现出逐年增加的趋势,只是气候倾向率不尽相同;土默特右旗年降水量呈现出逐年减少的趋势,其气候倾向率为-8.358mm/10a,减少趋势不显著;年内降水主要在夏季较为集中,其次是秋季和春季,冬季降水量相对较少;土默特右旗气温的增加和降水量的减少对冬小麦、夏玉米均会造成不同程度的影响。

关键词： 气候变化   农业   水资源   农业水管理   农业生产   应对策略   适应   减缓  

摘要： 气候变化导致全球年平均气温上升、降水模式变化、河流特性改变、极端气候事件频发等,显现出其对农业水资源和农业生产造成的影响,使全球尤其是干旱和半干旱地区可持续农业发展和现代农业水管理面临重大挑战。该文介绍气候变化下的极端气候事件发生,评价气候变化通过气温和降水的改变以及极端气候事件频度和程度加剧等各种方式对农业用水可利用量和水质以及作物需水造成的影响,阐述气候变化通过水要素对灌溉用水、可用耕地、作物产量带来的影响,综述气候变化对农业水管理的影响及应对策略,提出在气候变化对农业水管理的影响及应对策略研究上,应认真考虑气候变化对农业水管理影响的尺度效应和不确定性,从而有助于因地制宜地制定和合理选用农业水管理应对策略;应积极构建基于多模型集成模式的气候变化对农业水管理影响的综合评估方法,从而有利于改善综合预测评估结果的准确性和可靠性;应深入进行农业水管理应对策略的适应-减缓利弊权衡研究和协同效用分析,从而有效改进和提高应对策略的效用。建议国内应该加强对综合评估方法和效用分析的研究力度。

摘要： Abstract—: The article provides an assessment of the expected changes in the location of agricultural sectors affected by possible climate change, which is simulated by the displacement of natural and agricultural zones within production frontiers of Federal subjects. The spatial distribution of resources, efficiency of agricultural production, transport flows, demand and comparative competitive positions of individual sectors of agriculture are taken into account. © 2019, Pleiades Publishing, Ltd.

关键词： 卓资县   气候变化特征   农业生产   影响  

摘要： 本利用1981-2018年内蒙古自治区卓资县的气温、降水以及日照时数观测资料,首先分析了近38年卓资县的气候变化特征,接着探讨其对农业生产的影响。结果表明:近38年卓资县平均温度整体上呈现上升变化趋势,线性倾向率为0.627℃/10a;四季年平均温度均呈波动性增温变化趋势,增温幅度最大的为春季,其次为冬季,秋季增温幅度略高于夏季。卓资县降水量整体上呈波动增加的变化趋势,线性倾向率为7.284mm/10a,增加趋势并不明显。卓资县降水年际波动起伏变化比较大,极易引发旱涝灾害。日照时数主要呈不断减少的变化趋势,线性倾向率-83.187h/10a,气候的显著变暖,降水量年际间大幅度起伏波动以及日照时数的显著减少均会影响到卓资县水热光资源的平衡性,进而各类农作物的稳定生长发育以及农业气象灾害、作物病虫害造成一定的影响。只有采取科学合理的措施及时应对异常气候变化,才可以促使卓资县农业的健康、持续发展。

关键词： 气候变化特征   农业生产   福泉市  

摘要： 本文采用福泉市1981-2017年的气温、降水以及日照时数观测资料,首先分析了福泉市近37年来的气候变化特征,接着探讨其对农业生产的影响。结果表明:福泉市近37年的年平均气温整体呈增暖的变化趋势,气候倾向率为0.283℃/10a;降水量呈波略微减少的变化趋势,气候倾向率为-1.163mm/10a;日照时数呈显著减少的变化趋势,气候倾向率-60.381h/10a;气候变化的不断变暖以及降水、日照时数的减少,会对农作物品种结构和农业病虫害均造成一定的影响。

关键词： observational data   grid interval   martensite starting point   precipitation (meteorology)   Agricultural Drought   drought   Southeast Asia   wet season   SPI  

摘要： In order to plan for agricultural irrigation, the drought risk and amount of water needed for crops must be well studied. In this work, we apply the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and Crop Water Need (CWN) using input data from a fine-resolution Nested Regional Climate Model (NRCM) to assess the risk of future agricultural drought in Mainland Southeast Asia from 2020 to 2029. The NRCM was performed with resolutions of 60 and 10-km grid spacing for the present (1990-1999) and the future (2020-2029). The model employs initial and boundary conditions from the Community Climate System Model Version 4 (CCSM4) for meteorological variables. Two simulations, present-day (1990-1999) and future (2020-2029), were conducted under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 climate scenario. In general, the comparison between the NRCM predictions and observed data shows that the NRCM reasonably predicts precipitation and 2-m temperature with a high correlation of 0.89-0.98 and index of agreement (IOA) values ranging from 0.76 to 0.95. The future precipitation tends to decrease by (-1)-(1)mm/day, while the temperature will increase by up to 2-3 degrees C, which are favorable conditions for drought risk. Additionally, the SPI values between (-1.5) and 0 for both the dry and rainy seasons indicate a high possibility of drought events in the future. There seemed to be some evidence of drought risk in this region, but the calculation of CWN indicates that the region will remain relatively water rich for agriculture.

关键词： Oasis   Agriculture   Soil   Water   Irrigation   Climate   Chronology   Geoarchaeology   United Arab Emirates   Masafi  

摘要： Oases are subject to decreasing resources and changing human activities. Fully aware of their rich heritage, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have undertaken work to preserve and revitalize these oases. However, there is a clear lack of understanding of the dynamic links between climate change, hydraulic and agricultural management, and socioeconomic activities. To clarify these links, our team conducted a systematic geoarchaeological, geophysical, spatial, and chronological study of the Masafi oasis, UAE. Results indicate the existence of a natural humid area as early as the late Pleistocene (similar to 18 cal ka BP). These conditions persist during the early-mid Holocene with drainage activation and soil development (similar to 12-6.3 ka). During the late Holocene, after the emergence of the artificial oasis around similar to 3250 cal yr BP, cycles of intense management suggesting water availability (similar to 3250-2380 cal yr BP;550 cal yr BP) alternate with episodes of fluvial detritism (similar to 2380-1870 cal yr BP;>550 cal yr BP) and scattered evidence of farming activities with complex hydroclimatic signatures (similar to 2300-550 cal yr BP). These results, together with regional environmental data, indicate that water and soil resources were available and exploited strategically throughout the Holocene despite adverse climatic conditions, and the oasis of Masafi could have acted as a desert refugium.