关键词： Climate change   Carbon emission   Low-carbon agricultural production efficiency   Agroecosystem   Hebei  

摘要： With the increase of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the atmosphere, global greenhouse effects have intensified, thereby contributing to climate change. Agriculture contributes to climate change by increasing GHG emissions, and climate change in turn affects agricultural production. In this paper, we calculated carbon emissions and sequestration of agriculture in the 142 counties of Hebei Province, China, and analyzed their spatiotemporal distributions during 2000-2010. Considering net carbon emissions as an undesirable output, we then measured low-carbon agricultural production efficiency using a stochastic directional distance function. We further explored the impacts of climate change on low-carbon agricultural production. We found that carbon emissions in agriculture increased by 15.85% (650 million tons) during 2000-2010, while carbon sequestration in agroecosystems increased by 33.82% (13.8 million tons). The annual average low-carbon agricultural production efficiency increased by 3.03%. There were distinct disparities of efficiency among cities, with the highest efficiency in Chengde and Shijiazhuang. The efficiency in southeastern areas was lower than that in the northwest, owing to the increased carbon emissions. Temperature and precipitation had a positive effect on efficiency in Hebei, whereas extreme weather events caused lower efficiency. The results provide valuable references for developing sustainable, climate-resilient and adaptive agriculture under changing climatic conditions.

关键词： Agriculture and environment   Evaluation of environmental effects   Sustainability   Panel data models  

摘要： Agriculture and climate change are characterized by a complex cause-effect relationship. The agricultural sector generates significant quantities of gas emissions that affect climate. The rise in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, the increase in temperatures as well as changes in the precipitation regime have repercussions on the volume, quality and stability of the agricultural and zoo technical production, but also on the natural environment in which agriculture is practiced. Based on the above, the purpose of the paper is twofold. Firstly, through the Wroclaw Taxonomic Method, we construct a composite indicator, called the Index of Sustainable Agriculture (ISA), and analyse 28 countries that have joined the European Union from 1 July 2013 to today (EU-28) over the period 2005-2014, according to 16 variables. Secondly, the Granger-causality test for panel data is implemented in order to verify the causal relationship among the ISA, climate change and agricultural production. In other words, we test which of the three analyzed variables turns out to be the cause variable and which, instead, turns out to be the effect variable. Furthermore, we test if there is a bidirectional causality among the variables. This analysis provides a wide overview on how European countries rank according to the ISA and its three crucial pillars, i.e. environmental, economic and social. Moreover, important causality relationships among the ISA, climate changes (approximated by mean annual temperature and mean annual precipitation and provided by the Climate Research Unit (CRU) Time-Series (TS) Version 3.22 of the University of East Anglia) and agricultural production (approximated by wheat and spelt yields and provided by EUROSTAT) are identified. In particular, the following hypotheses are verified: 1) there is a negative bidirectional relationship between climate change and agricultural yields;2) there is a negative bidirectional causal relationship between clim

关键词： Agriculture   Climate vulnerability   Geographic visualization   AgroExplore  

摘要： Agriculture is often described as one of the sectors most vulnerable to future climate change, and its vulnerability is commonly assessed through quantitative indices. However, such indices differ significantly depending on their selected indicators, weighting mechanisms, and summarizing methods, often leading to divergent assessments of vulnerability for the same geographic area. The use of generic indicators might also lead to a loss of information about contextual risks and vulnerabilities. This may reduce the perceived usefulness of indices among stakeholders. This study analyses the role of indicators in assessing agricultural vulnerability to climate change. It analyses how indices are understood and used through three separate focus group sessions, involving agricultural experts professionally active in south-eastern Sweden. The paper presents how agricultural practitioners perceive a set of common vulnerability indicators, presented through a visualization tool, and their relevance, logic, and applicability to assess and address vulnerability to climate change. The results of this study contribute with perspectives on (i) the relevance and applicability of the commonly used generic indicators for agricultural vulnerability (ii) the assumed correlation of indicators with climate vulnerability and (iii) the identification of missing vulnerability indicators. The study finds that commonly used vulnerability indicators are perceived hard to apply in practice, as definitions and thresholds are often depending on the geographical and temporal scale, as well as the regional context. Additional exposure factors that were identified included extreme events, such as heavy precipitation and external factors such as global food demand and trade-patterns. Further, participants expressed that it is important to include indices that combine effects of multiple climatic changes and in-direct factors, such as policies, regulations and measures. Inherent complexities, context

关键词： Climate change   Economic impact   Northwest Vietnam   Ricardian approach  

摘要： The impact of climate change on agriculture will help to clarify the perception of the problem and quantify the impact, contributing to the formulation of sustainable livelihoods. This study uses the Ricardian approach to explore the implications of climate change on agriculture in the Northwestern area of Vietnam by taking farmer adaptations into account. The study uses secondary data of 1055 households which selected from Vietnam Household Living Standards Surveys in 2012 dataset and climate. To examine the effect of an infinitesimal change of temperature and rainfall in Northwest farming, marginal impact analysis was conducted. The study then predicts the impact of climate scenarios on net revenue for the years 2050 and 2100. The study found that relationship between household revenue and weather variables are nonlinear significant and inverted U-shaped relationships between the two seasons. Net revenue decreased as temperature and rainfall increase in the dry season. Net revenue projected to decline about 17.7% and 21.28% due to climate change in 2050 and 2100 respectively in without adaptation model. Net revenue would be loss about 0.37% and 0.20% in 2050 and 2100 respectively in with adaptation model. © 2018 The Authors

关键词： 农业发展   农业生态   气候变化  

摘要： 农业生态是农业发展的重要因素之一,近年来气候变化对农业生态的影响逐渐加强。本文以乌鲁木齐地区为例,分析该地区农业生态现状,从降水、气温、农作物三个方面分析气候对农业生态的影响,提升该地区对农业生态的重视,促进农业经济发展。

关键词： 气候变化   现代农业   科技传播   体系  

摘要： 在气候变化背景下中国现代农业发展面临着科技传播体系的缺失,具体表现为'传者本位'思想突出,农业适应气候变化的先进理念和先进技术无法传播到农村弱势群体;传播渠道过于狭窄,农业适应气候变化的先进理念和先进技术无法准确及时得到传播;农民科学素养不高,农业适应气候变化的先进理念和先进技术无法得到农民的追随与认同、扩散;传播内容受到限制,农业适应气候变化的先进理念和先进技术无法得到主动持续更新;'科教推用'难以结合,导致农业适应气候变化的先进理念和先进技术传播的效果不佳。因此,提出应构建'5个W分层分级环形互动科学传播体系模式',即构建气候变化背景下的'现代农业科技传播者系统'、'现代农业科技讯息系统'、'现代农业科技媒介系统'、'现代农业科技受传者系统'以及'现代农业科技效果系统'。这一体系模式既是适应气候变化的,也是适应现代农业发展趋势的。

关键词： 设施农业   气候资源   变化特征  

摘要： 为了探讨气候变化背景下四川地区设施农业气候资源变化,利用四川省134个气象站近40年逐日气温、降水及日照时数资料,通过多元回归、滑动t检验、气候倾向等数学统计方法,分析四川地区适宜期、加热期和通风期等几个生产期主要农业气候资源的空间变化趋势及其代际变化差异。结果表明,(1)四川盆地、川西高原以及攀西地区设施农业气候资源的空间分布特征差异明显。(2)适宜期、加热期和通风期设施农业气候资源主要因子的长期变化趋势各有不同。(3)年代际变化来看,20世纪70年代与20世纪90年代是四川地区适宜期热量及水分资源相对贫乏时期,在20世纪80年代与21世纪前11年适宜期热量资源均呈增加趋势;20世纪80年代和21世纪前11年四川区域加热期设施农业气候资源表现出一致的减少趋势;20世纪80年代是四川区域通风期气候资源匮乏时段,但从20世纪90年代开始通风期气候资源大体呈现持续增加的趋势。

关键词： 气候变化   农业生产   区域差异  

摘要： 当代社会逐渐趋向于工业化发展,向环境中排放了大量的二氧化碳,导致全球变暖现象已经逐渐影响到农业的生产与种植。本文主要针对气候变化对新疆地区的农业生产影响进行区域差异分析,阐述了气候对农作物生产的影响,并结合实际情况制定了降低不良影响的策略,以期全面促进当地农业的发展。

关键词： Surface temperature  

摘要： Agricultural development is among the most significant forms of land-use change globally. In central North America it has consisted of cropland expansion in the early 1900s, yield intensification starting in the 1930s, and the development of large irrigated areas beginning in the 1950s. The area of this study encompasses the Midwest and Great Plains of the United States not only because significant agricultural change has occurred here but also because of the significant cooling (warming hole) there in the midcentury. This study investigates the relative contribution of agricultural development and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on the observed patterns of regional changes in summer temperature, precipitation, and evapotranspiration using a long-term twentieth-century reanalysis dataset (CERA-20C) as boundary conditions for simulations with the MIT Regional Climate Model (MRCM). Temperatures in the Great Plains (33 degrees-43 degrees N, 95 degrees-109 degrees W) and the Midwest (38 degrees-48 degrees N, 82 degrees-109 degrees W) would have been significantly higher in the second half of the twentieth century without the influence of agricultural development, largely due to an increase in evaporative cooling. The simulations of precipitation changes reflect a significant influence of global SST teleconnections at decadal time scales. Numerical simulations also demonstrate the competing effects of cropland expansion and yield intensification on shaping the observed pattern of increases in precipitation. Ultimately, a combination of agricultural development and decadal variability of global sea surface temperatures (SST) explains most of the observed variability of summer temperature and precipitation during the twentieth century over central North America.

关键词： 气候变化   农业   CiteSpace   V   热点演变  

摘要： 基于Web of Science核心数据集中1985-2018年发表的11430篇以"气候变化"和"农业"为研究主题的文献,利用CiteSpaceV软件网络可视化分析功能,对气候变化下农业领域文献的特征与热点演变进行探究,以期明确该领域研究变化特征与趋势,为发展创新提供参考方向。结果表明:自1985年以来,农业领域年文献数量呈持续上升趋势;以美国、英国、中国、德国、澳大利亚等国家为代表的经济快速发展国家和地区均注重该领域的研究探讨;文献多发表于《Climatic Change》、《Science》等优质期刊;中国科学院、瓦赫宁根大学等国内外众多知名机构均致力于该领域的研究;"影响"、"适应性"、"管理"、"模型"、"食品安全"等是研究的共同热点词汇;以2007年为界,研究热点从评估气候变化对未来农作物产量的影响、影响因子等发展到集中探讨气候变化下农业发展的适应性、气候智慧型农业以及保护性农业等问题,以气候智慧型农业为代表的研究将是未来农业领域创新发展方向。